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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » UBC price and Bank Guarantees

UBC price and Bank Guarantees

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1UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty UBC price and Bank Guarantees Wed Apr 06, 2011 2:25 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
UBC allotment favored big shots who was mainly on bank guarantees (BG) while marginalizing retailers who was on cash and have the holding power.

Big shots have to pay an interest on outstanding balance of the BG. So there is a growing selling pressure?

If UBC price will not go up sooner, UBC's downward journey would expedite?

What do you think?

p.s.: As I wrote elsewhere, IMHO, fair value of UBC is around 35.

2UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Wed Apr 06, 2011 3:01 pm

ishnet

ishnet
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I have 1700 shares around 39/=,what to do,wait and see.........

3UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Wed Apr 06, 2011 3:11 pm

cse.alpha


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Even biggest applicants via bank guarantees got only around 12,500 UBC shares though - current selling pressure is more likely due to those who got UBC shares in recent private placements and rights issues looking to cash out.

A lesson for futures IPOs with pre-IPO deals, especially if pre-IPO part is at a discount to IPO price.

Employee and customer shares may also be adding a bit to selling pressure on UBC.

4UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Wed Apr 06, 2011 3:20 pm

invest-abc


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Also there were two crossing of 1.5Mn shares @ 42 & 750k shares @ 31. Probably the 750k is also subsequently dumped adding to the selling pressure.......

5UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty UBC price and Bank Guarantees Wed Apr 06, 2011 3:22 pm

dd


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
I feel the true value of UBC is Rs.27.50 to Rs 25/=. This is due to the huge selling pressure on the stock from the original investors ( not the private placement investors)who's average cost is around Rs.15/=.This includes investors like Sampath Bank. Suspect

6UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty UBC price and Bank Guarantees Wed Apr 06, 2011 3:23 pm

dd


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
I feel the true value of UBC is Rs.27.50 to Rs 25/=. This is due to the huge selling pressure on the stock from the original investors ( not the private placement investors)who's average cost is around Rs.15/=.This includes investors like Sampath Bank. Suspect

7UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Wed Apr 06, 2011 3:31 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@dd wrote:I feel the true value of UBC is Rs.27.50 to Rs 25/=. This is due to the huge selling pressure on the stock from the original investors ( not the private placement investors)who's average cost is around Rs.15/=.This includes investors like Sampath Bank. Suspect

There are disagreements on its fair value. But, fair-value should be determined regardless whatever existing selling pressures.

Existing/potential selling and buying pressures should be analyzed,however, to determine entry price.

8UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Wed Apr 06, 2011 3:42 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@cse.alpha wrote:Even biggest applicants via bank guarantees got only around 12,500 UBC shares though - current selling pressure is more likely due to those who got UBC shares in recent private placements and rights issues looking to cash out.

A lesson for futures IPOs with pre-IPO deals, especially if pre-IPO part is at a discount to IPO price.

Employee and customer shares may also be adding a bit to selling pressure on UBC.

Thanks!

9UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Wed Apr 06, 2011 4:48 pm

Fresher


Moderator
Moderator
considering the commission for BG and the VAT, ones who applied through BGs have the higher cost per share compared to the ones who applied with cash

10UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Wed Apr 06, 2011 4:59 pm

ipoguru


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I have 5300 shares average cost is 35. 60 .
The loss is now about 12000 rupeesssss :confused: :no: :(

Should I sell now or wait Union bank to find gold mine under there basement :lol!: :lol!:

11UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Wed Apr 06, 2011 8:51 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
@ipoguru wrote:I have 5300 shares average cost is 35. 60 .
The loss is now about 12000 rupeesssss confused No Sad

Should I sell now or wait Union bank to find gold mine under there basement lol! lol!

somehow they should find a good deposit base...........that will be their gold mine......
UB don't have a big branch network,not much client base.............
it will take sometime to recover................
in long run many shares will coming to their base value(real value) gradually......despite the IPO price..................then will act accordingly to the fundamentals...........
i may be wrong.............. Cool Cool Cool Cool

12UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Wed Apr 06, 2011 10:11 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Academic wrote:
UBC allotment favored big shots who was mainly on bank guarantees (BG) while marginalizing retailers who was on cash and have the holding power.

Big shots have to pay an interest on outstanding balance of the BG. So there is a growing selling pressure?

If UBC price will not go up sooner, UBC's downward journey would expedite?

What do you think?

p.s.: As I wrote elsewhere, IMHO, fair value of UBC is around 35.

Are you serious ? lol!
IF anything UBC allotment is the one that favored the smallest retailers the most! I have a friend who applied for the whole UBC IPO and the average cost for shares he received was Rs 46 !!
HE is still on a loss with these shares as UBC shares never went past Rs 46 and now way lower!

Please think before you post and not just post to blame!!

13UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Thu Apr 07, 2011 8:02 am

Fresher


Moderator
Moderator
@Rajitha wrote:
Are you serious ? lol!
IF anything UBC allotment is the one that favored the smallest retailers the most! I have a friend who applied for the whole UBC IPO and the average cost for shares he received was Rs 46 !!
HE is still on a loss with these shares as UBC shares never went past Rs 46 and now way lower!

Please think before you post and not just post to blame!!

oh come on mate Smile
he wasn't really 'blaming' anyone and maybe he just got it slightly wrong.
anyway it didn't favor the retailers either. it was just comparatively worse for the ones who applied through BGs

14UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Thu Apr 07, 2011 9:41 am

abra12


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
100 share allocation for each small retailer is deliberately done to favor them.


I never realized that...thanks

15UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Thu Apr 07, 2011 10:05 am

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Rajitha wrote:
@Academic wrote:
UBC allotment favored big shots who was mainly on bank guarantees (BG) while marginalizing retailers who was on cash and have the holding power.

Big shots have to pay an interest on outstanding balance of the BG. So there is a growing selling pressure?

If UBC price will not go up sooner, UBC's downward journey would expedite?

What do you think?

p.s.: As I wrote elsewhere, IMHO, fair value of UBC is around 35.

Are you serious ? lol!
IF anything UBC allotment is the one that favored the smallest retailers the most! I have a friend who applied for the whole UBC IPO and the average cost for shares he received was Rs 46 !!
HE is still on a loss with these shares as UBC shares never went past Rs 46 and now way lower!

Please think before you post and not just post to blame!!

Yes. My usage of the word "favored" is little vague. What I meant was compared to other IPOs UBC allocated small #, specially those applied for 5000 got only 100. Anyway, except customer category , both retail and BG applicants seem to be dissatisfied.

I ever blamed no one.

Further, as English is not our first language, it is natural and acceptable, sometimes we understand things written in English differently/wrongly.

Using English, making mistakes and learn form those mistakes is the best way to learn the language. Still, I learn a lot this way.

16UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Sun Nov 06, 2011 10:16 pm

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Some experts stated fair value of UBC is around 35/-But now it is trading at 21/-22/-level. But the same expert says (In his posts under another thread) our market is overpriced and ppl who knows this situation well have got off the Bus at the correct halt.(inderectly indicates he also got off the bus and therfore he is ok.) Others who do not have good knowledge about the share market are now suffering coz they did not understand this bitter truth and they did not got off the bus at the immediate halt after market turned to negetive)etc..But acccording to his post under this thread he has stated couple of months ago that UBC's fair value is around 35/-May be he has bought at that price and indirectly recomonded for others as well. How can he say now that shares are overpriced in CSE.

17UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Sun Nov 06, 2011 10:53 pm

Academic


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Just four points

1. I do not call myself an expert.

2. 35 is a relative valuation. Relative value changes as market sentiment changes (however I favor absolute valuations). Seems you couldn't find the original post where I say this 35. Nothing to hide see it here http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t2323-best-price-to-enter-ubc#15437 .

3. Once said relative fair-value 35, I doubts up movement of UBC. As I change my opinion I expressed that in the forum through above post. See I'm the initiator of this thread.

4. I appreciate your attempt of looking into past. Both positive and negative comments are welcome.

18UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Sun Nov 06, 2011 11:27 pm

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Rajaraam wrote:Some experts stated fair value of UBC is around 35/-But now it is trading at 21/-22/-level. But the same expert says (In his posts under another thread) our market is overpriced and ppl who knows this situation well have got off the Bus at the correct halt.(inderectly indicates he also got off the bus and therfore he is ok.) Others who do not have good knowledge about the share market are now suffering coz they did not understand this bitter truth and they did not got off the bus at the immediate halt after market turned to negetive)etc..But acccording to his post under this thread he has stated couple of months ago that UBC's fair value is around 35/-May be he has bought at that price and indirectly recomonded for others as well. How can he say now that shares are overpriced in CSE.

"Fair price" of a share is not an absolute value,It's arbitrary calculation based on some norms which may not be correct 100 % all the time. However it is important to realize that "Fair Price" of a share is one thing and "Market price" of a share is another thing. In an 100% efficient market(Which rarely exist) we would be able to see these two parameters are more or less similar. So that in simple logic when "Market price" of a share is below the "Fair price" we can say the particular counter is undervalued, and vice verse.

Not only UBC, we can see many shares trade below their Fair Price, and many more above their fair price.This is an intrinsic trait of any market including stocks,property,commodities etc unless they are 100% efficient, which do not really exist in reality.

I am not an expert, please correct me If I am wrong.

19UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Sun Nov 06, 2011 11:37 pm

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Wildbear,
I agree.

20UBC price and Bank Guarantees Empty Re: UBC price and Bank Guarantees Sun Nov 06, 2011 11:46 pm

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Rajaraam wrote:Wildbear,
I agree.

If we find an unacceptable discrepancy between the "Fair Value" and the "Market Price" of an asset class, we can assume the following,

1. Market is really inefficient
2.The calculated "Fair Value" is wrong
3. Both of the above factors

In this example UBC "Fair Price" was calculated based on NAV. If we think it's not suitable, we can suggest other methods,parameters to calculate a more fair "Fair Value"

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