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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » What share to pick and Why?

What share to pick and Why?

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1What share to  pick and Why?  Empty What share to pick and Why? Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:21 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I did the below post sometime ago,
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19939-good-shares-time-to-analyze-and-post-findings-open-invitation-to-all

But we now should have a better idea with Sept results out and considering a probable lower interest regime with no bank credit limitation as before.


There seems to be talk in the forum about re/entering market now. Undervalued , most undervalued are words I see a lot. Maybe without multiple posts maybe we can use this topic to start discussing about shares.

NAV and PE only? A Discussion :

Nowadays Usually research reports and investors tend to value shares on PE and NAV.

Here is a thought . How about if we redefine the word " most undervalued".

( now am talking about investing and not trading okay)

What about considering PE , NAV but also decent dividend , growth , future cash generation and retail play?

Please list your share and SAY WHY. The categories you can post are


Category 1: Based on NAV , PE , decent dividend, future cash generation , retail play ( investing or trading)
Category 2: Based on technical trends ( for trading )
Category 3: Based on speculation/rumor. ( for trading )

Please cleary SAY WHY and any other useful; info.


Okay le me start :

Category 1 : TFIL. PE about 5. March 31 NAv should be about 12. Next year Dividend can be above .Rs 0.8 . Still small fin company. Few branch addition can make them grow Eps by big margins. In a run this moves fast. We seen this several times . IPO price Rs 20


Category 3: Based on speculation. What about BFL. December/March usually stronger quarters for them. Chicken price increase . Incentives from budget. Have access to local grain through sub. trading 1/3 high price.



2What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:42 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
BTW please no fights on poultry shares. Some like some don;t . It okay.
This is an option and a disucssion only as a "share"

3What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Sun Jan 06, 2013 6:58 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
My Picks.....

NEST/HNBX/NDB/CTC/RICH/JINS/PLCN/SING/VLL/CSF/NAMU/CINSN


Very Happy

Under Radar
KGAL/KVAL/COMBX

few Speculative to add.

TAH

4What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Sun Jan 06, 2013 7:26 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
oops...

UML/DIMO/BFL missed the from my PF Rolling Eyes

lol!

5What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Sun Jan 06, 2013 7:43 pm

sahan8896


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:oops...

UML/DIMO/BFL missed the from my PF Rolling Eyes

lol!
I think DIMO will move up from 600 level this week.

6What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Sun Jan 06, 2013 11:01 pm

UAEBOY

UAEBOY
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@sahan8896 wrote:
@traderathome wrote:oops...

UML/DIMO/BFL missed the from my PF Rolling Eyes

lol!
I think DIMO will move up from 600 level this week.

BFL & UML shoot very soon... Razz

7What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Sun Jan 06, 2013 11:07 pm

UAEBOY

UAEBOY
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:My Picks.....

NEST/HNBX/NDB/CTC/RICH/JINS/PLCN/SING/VLL/CSF/NAMU/CINSN


Very Happy

Under Radar
KGAL/KVAL/COMBX

few Speculative to add.

TAH

My picks....

VLL-REXP-REEF W-UML-CTCE-CSF-CIFL-ACME Cool

8What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:22 am

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Please list your share and SAY WHY. The categories you can post are

Category 1: Based on NAV , PE , decent dividend, future cash generation , retail play ( investing or trading)
Category 2: Based on technical trends ( for trading )
Category 3: Based on speculation/rumor. ( for trading )

Please cleary SAY WHY and any other useful; info.


Interesting topic from sls.

Cat 1:
collected SERV as a mid/long term investment.
Recently they re-open for business after a major refurbishment worth Rs1.8 billion.

http://thekingsbury.lk/

Its not about PE but future earnings. Locationwise it's at least 9 out of 10 in Colombo.

Cons: Dont know much details about the Rs 1.8 billion loan they have taken to do the refurbishment.
Expecting a loss in Q3 & Q4 2012. ( Q3 loss > Q4 loss)

Cat 1:
Collecting SEYB.
Seylan Bank had some troubled past but expecting a better future.
It was a tough call to select the best (for me) out of COMB, SAMP, NTB & SEYB.
Risk of a right issue also minimum.
Expecting a better dividend end of next month

Cat 3:

ABAN, WAPO & CCS.
CCS is a real wild card.

Above counters are just few companies come to my mind.

About few months ago I did collect LGL, LOLC n ACL as long term investment but they did give the anticipated profit margin far early so I had to dispose all.













9What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:31 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
UKBOY,


Some feedback:

Very good reasons given.


Actually it is a juggle between NTB and SEYB. But good point about right issue. However NTB also seems okay with Capital. They might edge out SEYB with dividend yield. Also earning seems better. But SEYB leading NTB on Nav.

ABAN is not much of a spec in my opinion. Look at the present fundamentals. However their earnign were not consistent.

I is a juggle for me between ABAN and APLA but I think ABAN is leading now.

Looks like you are back to your likable spec WAPO.


10What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Tue Jan 08, 2013 10:49 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Looks like lot of people want ideas but does not mention anything.

Okay then here is Speculative to guess

It is "very low cost" people don;t talk a lot . Public holdign is high but and it deserves a run. Corrected about 70 % from top. Als it did not have a proper run since ASI 4700.

11What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:31 pm

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Looks like lot of people want ideas but does not mention anything.
Sls, I think because of two reasons majority of forum members are scared express their favourite/collecting shares.
still the future is uncertern.
mention something earlier could easily lead he/she to a loser in the future ( if it will not work as they said).People will recognise them as a losers.

It is extremely easy to tell something about past but not future.

12What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:45 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

That true UKB.

When the real bull starts we will have so many making predictions , price targets and spreading rumours as promotions.

Right now when the shares are at lower price people are scared to invest or talk. When market goes down a bit on a correction that when the "crap" talking guys come out.

It would be great if these people come out now and say n what their opinion is and what shares they are buying( with reasons) or selling. Pointless coming later and say I made this profit on a share. Then they will make statement to panic other like saying ASI will 5000, 4000 etc. What good does to the forum.

Now is the time to come and do some service. Share you opinion on shares.

Also making mistakes is not a problem , We all do. We do not have to be worried to state our opinion about a share With reasons . If it comes down it is okay and no decent person would blame you ( unless you are a showoff).



@UKboy wrote:
@slstock wrote:Looks like lot of people want ideas but does not mention anything.
Sls, I think because of two reasons majority of forum members are scared express their favourite/collecting shares.
still the future is uncertern.
mention something earlier could easily lead he/she to a loser in the future ( if it will not work as we said).
Most will recognise you as a loser.

It is extremely easy to tell something about past not future.

13What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Tue Jan 08, 2013 1:00 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@UKboy wrote:
@slstock wrote:Looks like lot of people want ideas but does not mention anything.
Sls, I think because of two reasons majority of forum members are scared express their favourite/collecting shares.
still the future is uncertern.
mention something earlier could easily lead he/she to a loser in the future ( if it will not work as they said).People will recognise them as a losers.

It is extremely easy to tell something about past but not future.
hmmm Rolling Eyes

PLC @14.10 SL 13 PT15.5-16 and Longterm 18++ Very Happy

Whatever Shocked

Basketball

14What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Tue Jan 08, 2013 1:49 pm

klpfernando


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
LOLC and LIOC making headlines these days.for me their future looks very bright.

15What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Tue Jan 08, 2013 2:26 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
How about KFP...... Very Happy

i think better than CARG know... Basketball


please share your thoughts... Wink
TAH bounce

16What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Thu Jan 10, 2013 1:06 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics


KFP is stabilizing after right issue. Issue with KFP is earnings are not consistent.
Right now on NAV and PE KFP is betetr than CAR but long term, if CARGs all investments start reaping profits, CARG will be a huge force. This usper market taxseems to be in the back of some people. Looks like the tax will be ultimately bared by custoemrs and not supermarket chains.



@traderathome wrote:How about KFP...... Very Happy

i think better than CARG know... Basketball


please share your thoughts... Wink
TAH bounce

17What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Fri Jan 11, 2013 6:46 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:My Picks.....

NEST/HNBX/NDB/CTC/RICH/JINS/PLCN/SING/VLL/CSF/NAMU/CINSN


Very Happy

Under Radar
KGAL/KVAL/COMBX

few Speculative to add.

TAH
Bought COMBX 2000units @ 93ish looking for 30Rs appreciation Very Happy

18What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Fri Jan 11, 2013 7:29 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
TAH ,

Am guessing , COMB.X to goto Rs 120 Comb.N might have to go over Rs 140.

% gain wise, isn;t comb.N better then for capital gain?


@traderathome wrote:
@traderathome wrote:My Picks.....

NEST/HNBX/NDB/CTC/RICH/JINS/PLCN/SING/VLL/CSF/NAMU/CINSN


Very Happy

Under Radar
KGAL/KVAL/COMBX

few Speculative to add.

TAH
Bought COMBX 2000units @ 93ish looking for 30Rs appreciation Very Happy

19What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Sat Jan 12, 2013 1:06 pm

indi009

indi009
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
What do you guys think of AAF??

20What share to  pick and Why?  Empty Re: What share to pick and Why? Sat Jan 12, 2013 7:28 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:TAH ,

Am guessing , COMB.X to goto Rs 120 Comb.N might have to go over Rs 140.

% gain wise, isn;t comb.N better then for capital gain?


@traderathome wrote:
@traderathome wrote:My Picks.....

NEST/HNBX/NDB/CTC/RICH/JINS/PLCN/SING/VLL/CSF/NAMU/CINSN


Very Happy

Under Radar
KGAL/KVAL/COMBX

few Speculative to add.

TAH
Bought COMBX 2000units @ 93ish looking for 30Rs appreciation Very Happy

I liked the chart pattern on COMBX than the COMBN. Very Happy

Looks its about trade at the next stage PA wise.

So its a technical choice Very Happy

TAH Rolling Eyes

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