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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CHRONICLE™ ANALYTICS » A brief look at ASI index

A brief look at ASI index

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1A brief look at ASI index Empty A brief look at ASI index Sun Jan 27, 2013 7:58 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
ASI has risen to 6006 on Oct 1, 2012 from on 4725 on June 6th. 2012 displaying ending signs to the long lasted bear market.
Then it declined marginally below the visual 50% Fib level of 5366 in December 2012 but quickly recovered to hit 5895 by January 2013.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Now the important barrier it should brake is 5896.
And if we consider the pattern we from the last run started at 4725, then we're at the fifth wave of an EW. Therefore; there's a chance for ASI to go pass 6200 too.
However if we take the last 6006 and the latest peaks, this can be argued as a 1-2-3 pattern, then we should be a little worried.
[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

See the 3 green color squares I've highlighted. All 3 show a bit of similar pattern of cooling off after a rise. So we can at least think
that market would pass 5896 barrier in few more days, latest by next week is a wild guess.
However, from ADX point of view, the strength has got a bit weaken. We can see it by the crossing of green +DI line from blue ADX line. Further
more, MACD is also down while RSI is at 79.

Now this RSI tells, imo,
1) RSI at least can go to 90s or 100 if ASI continues to rise till 6200
2) RSI stay the same or decline a bit to further (than the last few weeks) to mark a consolidation before it reaches 6200.

Pls mind now that 6200 is a wild guess if ASI recovers.

In addition, 14 day MA is above both 50 day MA & 100 day MA - means buying is encouraged and a good up trend can be seen.

While its good to be keeping our optimism high, giving attention to the below points would also be prudent before any investment is made.

1) Lot of ppl like to book profits now or wait till ASI reaches 6000.
2) Foreigners were in selling spree since last week. During this months a lot of shedding has been also done.

Most importantly, I still see the FD, TB sources to be of greater value at this moment.
Commercial Credit and Finance Plc, is selling 250 million rupees of 5-year debentures paying of 20% a year.
The debenture will be listed and free of withholding tax as announced in the budget for 2013.;
http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/fullstory.php?nid=651603377

Therefore, should you enter or wait is the million dollar question?
Can give you a hint though... The interest rates should go down for the market to become attractive.. At least those have to come to 12% as a starter.

Our inflation rate is at the bogus value of 7-8% given by central bank. Many educated ppl argue its more than 14%. However, at the rate the living expenses have risen, it anyway cannot be
7-8%.

2A brief look at ASI index Empty Re: A brief look at ASI index Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:14 am

godswen

godswen
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks for this smallville!

3A brief look at ASI index Empty Re: A brief look at ASI index Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:31 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Thanks for the tech feedback which is useful and mostly in agreement.

We are yet again at a crucial stage on techs. If ASI falls , around 5800- 5750 is some what a support . If it fall below 5750 in volume we will need to be worried over short term .

On the other side , we are eagerly awaiting break of 6000, If i t breaks 6000 with strong volumes ( retail) we can even expect ASI as much as 6200-6300 . Also RSI is know to be in 90-100 if momentum stays as Smallville stated.

Retailer confidence and mentality is what is needed now to break 6000. Amazing something negative always comes around when a rends if forming. ( now CJ and Common wealth issues )

BTW, above is to add as input/analysis only and no way to be taken as any sureity

4A brief look at ASI index Empty Re: A brief look at ASI index Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:17 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
I've been away from tech analysis, in particular ASI cuz I felt that its more important to look at the price action of individual stocks rather than wondering where can market head tomorrow.

So my following point is true for now;
1) Lot of ppl like to book profits now or wait till ASI reaches 6000.

Apparently profit taking at this stage can slow down the 6000 target and we must be conscious and be very vigilant now as the aftermath of a profit taking at a higher magnitude will not be fruitful to the investors..

I re-iterate what Slstock has even elaborated few months back - Better to target individual counters than looking for an index.

So the above charts are just the icing of the cake. The next part will either be bitter or sweat.. Let Mr. Market decide where he wants to be.

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