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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » MPRH is it the most undervalued stock in plantation sector?

MPRH is it the most undervalued stock in plantation sector?

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Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
There is no clear reason to leave him.
Rational and logical and very specially long term thinking.
Lets wait and see this time with plantations.

Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
And you trust the top shareholder Question

suja


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hey whats wrong with the top shareholder, is there anything to worry about?
He is the person running the business also so if there are issues with management its and issue. I hold this share.

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Arena,

I already commented about his certain talents which I do admire.

But someone with money and connections can buy low , talk a lot about it ( like PCH saga) and when the share moves it is called a self fulling prophecy. The Chicken stock atleast had fundamental when he talked.

But I do find it amazing how he knew stuff during certain period of time ( before results ) and then how he knows exactly when to unload at the top . ( it happen in BFL and PCH)

I think it okay to follow to get ideas( as he is a good analyst ) , but there are other things I am not sure about to follow blindly. ( I know you are not)


Yes plantation will run , but when? If the big run is in September it is a huge opportunity cost.





@Arena wrote:There is no clear reason to leave him.
Rational and logical and very specially long term thinking.
Lets wait and see this time with plantations.

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yep agreed and i dont follow blindly.
As you said it is really interesting how they find early. industry analysis ?

As per my knowledge real investors visit the Out lets and factories before buying shares.

There will be no opportunity cost at all even it happens in Sep. or Dec. since still the collection is going on.

I agree with the point they can easily push the prices since they have money. but for sure they cant push the entire plantation sector this time.

I respect this value investment the reason is still i am not mature to do long term investments.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
"As you said it is really interesting how they find early. industry analysis ?"

Hmm, if resourceful there are "other" options. I will n t speculate further.


"There will be no opportunity cost at all even it happens in Sep. or Dec. since still the collection is going on."

WHat I mean is if you hold a share for 12 months and it goes up by 15% vs some other share goes up 25% in 1 month there is a short term opportunity cost.

Examples

I held some CIND with big fundamentals . But there was a opportunity cost as it does move easily.

Only last week I mentioned about ESL at Rs 24. Now it ran to Rs 28 in few days. ESL is also a speculative ( also fundamental) hot stock in this environment.

there was a time opportunity cost.

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Slstock

That is a very basic question you asked.

How can you find another share to trade. Speculation ?

Big investors deal with huge quantities. They cant shift from one share to another at once. It takes years and they dont sell immediately. Even Another goes 1000% they dont move. That is the strategy ........Only the loss id the FD rate they loose.


Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Arena,

I am not talking about big investors. If so what you said it true. Btw , MW is not in our league.

I am talking about you and me with retailer quantities and thus opportunity costs. Am talking about having significant exposure to plantations if you are just following what MW does.
If they move good . Else opportunity cost. Personally I am holding out till June quarter before any big plantaion purchase. maybe I will miss a sudden run, but I am willing to take that smaller risk. Part of my other shares have performed much better . SO no worries so far.


Also when I looked at the reoports last time I noticed MW bought BOPL at around Rs 20 in 2011 or so.
Then I guess he would have averged when shares dropped in 2012.

What an opportunity cost !

Hope you saw the issues I am talkign about.

If not let finish this and go about our other work.


@Arena wrote:Slstock

That is a very basic question you asked.

How can you find another share to trade. Speculation ?

Big investors deal with huge quantities. They cant shift from one share to another at once. It takes years and they dont sell immediately. Even Another goes 1000% they dont move. That is the strategy ........Only the loss id the FD rate they loose.


celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Arena,

I already commented about his certain talents which I do admire.

But someone with money and connections can buy low , talk a lot about it ( like PCH saga) and when the share moves it is called a self fulling prophecy. The Chicken stock atleast had fundamental when he talked.

But I do find it amazing how he knew stuff during certain period of time ( before results ) and then how he knows exactly when to unload at the top . ( it happen in BFL and PCH)

I think it okay to follow to get ideas( as he is a good analyst ) , but there are other things I am not sure about to follow blindly. ( I know you are not)


Yes plantation will run , but when? If the big run is in September it is a huge opportunity cost.





@Arena wrote:There is no clear reason to leave him.
Rational and logical and very specially long term thinking.
Lets wait and see this time with plantations.

Mmmm....plantation run IF they don't run now there will be no run for some times unless tea and rubber prices go up. Way forward for tea plantations is to come up with new ideas like BOPL-ice tea,ELPL-chines specialty tea but these projects will take 3-5 years to make impact on the bottom line. So I think Mr market will give us a chance to buy plantations cheaper than current prices from next quarter.If you have enough holding power like MW...If not we will blame MW again.




Nigel.Machado


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Some called it promotion. Yet MPRH gave a healthy return above 50% moving from 18-20 level to 28-30 level. Highest point being 33.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
My good so many share gave 50% run from bottom values. Some gave over 100%.


@Nigel.Machado wrote:Some called it promotion. Yet MPRH gave a healthy return above 50% moving from 18-20 level to 28-30 level. Highest point being 33.

suja


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Nigel,
Do you think the share has no value now? I dont see your name in the list anymore? This is not a trick question just want to know your opinion

Nigel.Machado


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I shed some of my holding before 31st March and the rest afterwards. Have to wait & see about the wage increment issue. Tea based plantations will be healthy till avg tea prices are above rs420. But increase in grativity has to be calculated. Also according to SLFRS acturial gain or loss on retirement benefit plan will have to be computed. This will vary from business to business as the discounting rate for this calculation will be based on companies cost of capital. Im still holding onto MASK though.

May be an expert can shed some info on this acturial gain loss calculation on retirement benefit plan according to SLFRS.

suja


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks mate,

I saw some people mentioning about Horana. They even said that they will declare a devident this time. If I am not mistaken Their balance sheet is not great, they have a negative cash position and I do not know how they can pay a devident?

What are your views?

guys please comment?.

Nigel.Machado


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
HORA is a well managed company among plantation companies. For an instance we know that holding companies charge an Management fee from the plantation companies. Mangement fee for MASK is 184mn & for HORA its only 16mn. Even if mgt fee is calculated based on revenue still it isvery much lower than MASK.

HORA will be able to declare a dividend as they have made 300mn positive cash flow from operations. Also 88mn after investing & financing activities.

Nigel.Machado


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
But dividends is always a management decission.

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Thank you Nigel.Machado for opening this thread.

After you highlighted the stock I quickly studied and bought it around Rs. 23.

Unfortunately I managed to find funds for only 10,000 shares that time.
I hope it will go to next stages in due course .

Withing next 2-3 months we should take a firm decision on plantations. For that, deep studies needed. All are talking about wage issue; previous memories affect our thinking . Sometimes unexpected happens.

suja


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hey I saw this late and hence kindly disregard my question on HOPL devident analyser what I mean is they have a negative working capital position CA-CL and hence if they a devident wont they be trouble in the medium term as it is a pure cash outflow.

Nigel.Machado


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I prefer MASK from all tea based plantations. Its under the management of RICH. RPC plantation management company holds 83% of the company.

Annual eps of rs 7
Without time adjustment for rights annual eps of RS 5

short term investments of Rs 300mn

Net asset value of 29.

In 2011 when the wages were revised avg tea prices also dipped down to rs300 level. But now the tea prices are above 420. As i know avg cost per kg of tea was between 340 to 360 before wage revision. Now the cost per kg should be somwhere between 370 to 390.

Vptilak


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Nigel.Machado wrote:Metropolitan Resource Holdings

9 months earnings RS 11.52

3 months earnings RS 6.19

Market Price 23.40

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/724_1360580346484.pdf

2012-2013 financial year NAV is Rs. 45.02 and EPS Rs. 14.87 . Now trading at PE 2. Last year with EPS (10.78)Loss .Still they paid a dividend of Rs 1.25. How much this time ?

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Nigel.Machado wrote:I prefer MASK from all tea based plantations. Its under the management of RICH. RPC plantation management company holds 83% of the company.

Annual eps of rs 7
Without time adjustment for rights annual eps of RS 5

short term investments of Rs 300mn

Net asset value of 29.

In 2011 when the wages were revised avg tea prices also dipped down to rs300 level. But now the tea prices are above 420. As i know avg cost per kg of tea was between 340 to 360 before wage revision. Now the cost per kg should be somwhere between 370 to 390.

Me too prefer MASK in plantation.....
and this time MASK has everything to pay very good dividend.......
Rs. 2 to 3????? is this possible? practical??? scratch

Nigel.Machado


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I dont think MASK will declare a dividend. Wise will not declare dividend till the wage impact set in. Still anything & everything is possible. Anyway why should mask declare dividend when the parent company has already charged 184MN as management fee.

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