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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » DAILY CHRONICLE™ » Sri Lanka rupee weakens amid excess liquidity

Sri Lanka rupee weakens amid excess liquidity

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Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Feb 19, 2013 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's rupee weakened below 127.00 to the US dollar in the spot market Tuesday following a prolonged period of excess liquidity in money markets, dealers said though authorities have begun to permanently sterilize some excess rupees.

The spot US dollar was quoted around 127.00/10 Tuesday though a state name was selling dollars to to selected banks at around 126.95 dealers said.

Sri Lanka's central bank can intervene in forex markets without negative effects through unsterilized reserve sales which will kill some excess liquidity and help keep the exchange rate stable without putting further pressure on credit and imports.

The central bank can preserve its forex reserves by killing liquidity by selling its Treasuries stock outright.

On Monday the Central Bank sold 2.5 billion rupees of its bill stock in an outright sale with 17 days to maturity at an average yield of 8.65 percent, potentially killing a similar amount of bank credit and imports.

Another 31 day auction of 2.5 billion rupees of bills was also made at an average yield of 8.9 percent. From February 7 to 14 about 16 billion rupees of Treasuries were sold from the Central Bank's stock through outright sales.

Last week there was a surge in liquidity with no decrease in the Central Bank's Treasury bill stock, which led market participants to speculate that some state debt may have been monetized.

Analysts had warned that regardless of Sri Lanka's overnight policy interest rates the rupee can be weakened and inflation will go up if the Central Bank injects liquidity into money markets through term auctions or purchases of Treasury bills.

The rupee can weaken even if total imports falls or the trade deficit narrows.

Analysts who use classical economic principles rather than Mercantilism have repeatedly warned that exchange rate weakening is a monetary phenomenon related money and credit and imports are simply a symptom.
http://lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=1528846788

2Sri Lanka rupee weakens amid excess liquidity Empty Rupee slips further Wed Feb 20, 2013 1:39 am

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
The rupee continued to depreciate as further import demand was witnessed on it, Wealth Trust Securities said.

It said the rupee dipped to an intraday low of Rs.127.30 from its opening levels of Rs. 127 and closed the day at Rs. 127.35.

However the volume remained rather moderate. The total USD/LKR volume for the previous day (18 February) was at US$ 20.65 million.

Some of the forward dollar rates that prevailed in the market were one month at 128.15, three months at 130 and six months at 132.85.

Meanwhile in secondary bond markets, Wealth Trust said activity picked up yesterday, with the liquid five year maturities (i.e. 15 August 2018 and 1 April 2018) changing hands at levels of 10.90%-11%. In addition, the 364 day bill was seen changing hands at levels of 11.08%, ahead of its weekly bill auction due today. The Public Debt Department (PDD) of Central Bank announced in total an amount of Rs. 21 billion on offer for the auction, in comparison to its last week’s offered amount of Rs. 15 billion.

At last week’s auction, weighted averages were seen decreasing on the 91 day and 182 day bills by 15 and eight basis points (bp) respectively, while the 364 day bill dipped by only one bp.

In money markets, overnight call money and repo rates remained mostly unchanged yesterday at levels of 9.50%-9.60% and 8.55%-8.65% respectively as market surplus liquidity remained high of Rs. 24.6 billion.

Furthermore, an amount of Rs. 21.6 billion was mopped up on an overnight basis at a weighted average of 8.35% by the Central Bank through its Open Market Operations (OMO).
http://www.ft.lk/2013/02/20/rupee-slips-further/

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

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