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The Bourse Weekly Performance

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The week concluded on a negative note with the All Share Price Index plunging WoW owing to retail profit taking, whilst crossings drove the week’s turnover and volume levels. The ASI lost 94.7 points WoW to close at 5,735.6 points (-1.6%), whilst the S&P SL 20 Index lost 50.9 points WoW to close at 3,223.3 points (-1.6%). Indices lost mainly on the back of the losses made by Ceylon Tobacco Company (--3.4% WoW), Dialog Axiata (-4.2% WoW), Bukit Darah (-3.8% WoW), Sampath Bank (-6.2% WoW) and Aitken Spence (-3.6% WoW).

The week prolonged last week’s sluggish momentum with weekly turnover levels remaining below par. A similar momentum was also witnessed in most of international stocks. MSCI world index which measures the stock market performance of developed countries witnessed a WoW dip of circa 1.1%. Most European stocks stumbled due to the regions weak recovery process from the recession, while the US official data showed an increase in the country’s unemployment rate which would have also contributed to the lacklustre momentum. MSCI frontier market index which measures the stock market performance of frontier markets also witnessed a marginal dip of circa 0.3% WoW.

Entities continued releasing their December financial results this week which on average has been below expectations, as most companies have witnessed a slowdown in their business activities during the quarter. In addition IMF revised down growth rates for Sri Lanka due to high inflation risk and lower tax revenue collection, coupled with the impending hearing at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHCR).

During the week, investor focus was centred upon selected Bank, Finance and Insurance and Diversified counters with each sector contributing a circa 48% & 30% to the week’s turnover respectively. Hatton National Bank spearheaded the market contributing circa 30% of the weekly turnover along with the announcement of an attractive final dividend further enhancing value of the counter. The share also encountered positive news during the week where the government obtained the cabinet approval to borrow from Hatton National Bank to finance two colossal infrastructure projects.

Hence all three investor groups were seen active on the above high cap banking counter.

Further, John Keells Holdings also continued to gain investor interest where the counter witnessed several off market deals during the week. John Keells Holdings made a price gain of 3% WoW to reach a 52 week high of LKR236.50 on Friday. Commercial Bank of Ceylon also witnessed heavy investor play during the week where both institutional and retail investors were active on the counter. In addition, Ceylon Tobacco Corporation, Asiri Surgical Hospital and Sampath Bank also joined the top turnover calibre during the week.

Top contributors to the weekly volume consist of Asiri Surgical Hospital, Hattion National Bank, Seylan Merchant Bank and Dialog Axiata. The average daily turnover for the week was LKR787.5mn mn whilst the average daily volume was 108.3mn shares.

Significant foreign investor interest was observed over the week with foreign purchases amounting to LKR2,664.6 mn,whilst foreign sales amounted to LKR1,950.7 mn. Market capitalisation stood at LKR2,199.8 bn, and the YTD performance is 1.6%.

Short term uncertainty results in low investor activity..

Sentiments at the Colombo Bourse appears to have witnessed an about-face during the week with both the ASI & S&PSL20 index losing
considerable value and the YTD performance of the ASI falling below 2%. This has been accompanied by a marked decline in turnover and volumes for the week compared to the previous weeks. This decline may be a response to a combination of factors including; weaker than expected quarterly earnings results, the IMF’s decision to revise down its GDP growth forecasts of Sri Lanka for 2013E from 6.5% to 6.3% as well as the heightened political risk arising from the coverage surrounding the outcome of United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) decision. Further, the recent decision to prevent the outright sale of private land to non-citizens may not augur well for foreign activity in the Colombo Bourse. While investors revise down their expectations to take into account short term weaknesses in the economy, institutional & foreign interest continues to be sustained in large cap blue chip counters which are perceived to have high growth prospects. The IMF too concedes that while short term weaknesses persist with respect to the economy’s fiscal deficit and BOP position, the economy has achieved sufficient structural changes to enable it to maintain its current growth trajectory, which the IMF projects to be the highest for the South Asian region. Hence we expect earnings of fundamentally sound counters to be consistent in line with these growth prospects and hence we reiterate that investors should maintain a long term view of investing to maximise their returns.
Source: Weekly Review by Asia Wealth Management Research


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Weekly Market Focus
By Lanka Securities Research

Negative implications of the West-backed human rights proceedings coupled with profit taking hit the indices in this week trading. Although the former point was accounted for during last year’s bearish trend, further proceedings by the West has hurt Sri Lanka’s image. We witness a mixed bag of results from the December 2012 quarter although companies in specific industries which are positioned to outperform others have posted improved results. A period of stock picking is upon us as we can expect a slight bearish trend in the near term.

ASI lost 55.67 points on Monday (-0.95%) to close at 5,774.59 and the S&P SL20 index lost 24.97 points (-0.76%) to close at 3,249.28. Turnover was Rs. 869.8Mn. Top contributors to turnover were John Keells Holdings with Rs. 357.8m, Asiri Surgical with Rs. 145.5m and Hatton National Bank with Rs. 48.9m. Most active counters for the day were Touchwood Investments, Central Investments & Finance, and Richard Pieris.

Indices closed lower again Tuesday with many blue-chips losing ground whilst John Keells Holdings managing to hold steady. Large deals on banking counters Hatton National Bank and Commercial Bank helped to boost turnover on day dominated by blue-chips.

ASI lost 37.11 points (0.64%) to close at 5,737.48 and the S&P SL20 index lost 10.71 points (0.33%) to close at 3,238.57. Turnover was Rs. 1,520.3m. Top contributors to turnover were Hatton National Bank with Rs. 799.5m, Commercial Bank with Rs. 281.0m and John Keells Holdings with Rs. 197.6Mn. Most active counters for the day were Central Investments & Finance, Sampath bank and John Keells Holdings.

Interest on John Keells Holdings failed to lift up spirits at the CSE Wednesday as the overall market was sluggish. A handful of blue-chips such DFCC, NDB, Ceylon Tobacco Company and Chevron Lubricants also gained ground. It seems buying interest is only evident in fundamentally sound blue-chips during the past few weeks. Yields on treasury bills were flat across all three maturities which might indicate that the interest rates will stabilize at prevailing levels.

ASI dipped 6.94 points (0.12%) to close at 5,730.54 and the S&P SL20 index lost 13.72 points (0.42%) to close at 3,224.85. Turnover was Rs. 763.5m.

John Keells Holdings was the bright light in a sluggish market as it helped to minimize the losses on the indices on Thursday. It reached a 52-week high of Rs. 235.30 with a block trade done at Rs. 235.00 whilst also contributing around 68% of the turnover. Banking stalwart Sampath Bank saw its share value plummet by Rs. 7.40 or 3.16% to Rs. 227.00. The counter’s price was partly driven by foreign accumulation and interest in the very recent past.

ASI dipped 4.43 points (0.08%) to close at 5,726.11 and the S&P SL20 index lost 5.35 points (0.17%) to close at 3,219.50. Turnover was Rs. 484.4Mn.

Further gains from John Keells Holdings managed to uplift the sentiment with Hatton National Bank and Commercial Bank also managing to close higher on Friday. HNB announced a Rs. 7.00 dividend today. Ceylon Tobacco Company saw its share value drop by around 2.1% to Rs. 800.00. As many counters are showing bearish trends, it is an ideal opportunity to buy at relatively lower prices and thereby benefiting from cyclical movements.

ASI gained 9.50 points (0.17%) to close at 5,735.61 and the S&P SL20 index gained 10.72 points (0.33%) to close at 3,223.28. Turnover was Rs. 300.1m. Top contributors to turnover were John Keells Holdings with Rs. 98.6m, Access Engineering with Rs. 22.8m and Tokyo Cement non-voting with Rs. 21.3m. Most active counters the day were Touchwood Investments, Hatton National Bank non-voting and Sampath Bank.

Notable gainers for the day were Nation Lanka Finance warrant 21 up by 6.3% to close at Rs. 1.70, Free Lanka Capital Holdings up by 4.0% to close at Rs. 2.60 and Panasian Power up by 3.7% to close at Rs. 2.80.

Notable losers for the day were Touchwood Investments down by 11.5% to close at Rs. 5.40, Dankotuwa Porcelain down by 3.2% to close at Rs. 15.00 and Citrus leisure warrant 19 down by 3.1% to close at Rs. 3.10.

Cash map for today was 51.48%. Foreign participation was 23% of total market turnover whilst net foreign buying was Rs. 94m.

The Bourse Weekly Performance Asada10

3The Bourse Weekly Performance Empty The Bourse Weekly Performance Sun Feb 24, 2013 1:50 am


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
The Bourse Weekly Performance Z_p-5210

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