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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl ?

Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl ?

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1Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl ?  Empty Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl ? Fri Mar 01, 2013 4:44 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Since their is a lot of interest in the poultry sector with chicken lovers and haters in the forum, the following may be of interest to some

1. Their is only one listed Egg Producer in the CSE and that is CIC, which is not the market leader. In Sri-Lanka, approx 2 million eggs are consumed daily. Eggs and not chicken are the cheapest source of Protein.

2. All Eggs are Halal - or so they think and say ! The Halal certifying board in Sri-Lanka says that all Eggs are Halal and dont need certification since they are naturally produced by the hen. However, not all Chickens (or Hens) are halal. This is due to two factors i.e. the Feed used and the method of killing. Now it is possible for some producers to feed the hens, feed consisting of non-halal ovine bone meal (as a protein supplement in feed - some use soya) , so technically not all eggs are halal ? classic chicken and egg story !

3. In 2012, their was a bumper Fish catch especially in the North east, which temporararily made fish relatively inexpensive and dampened the demand for chicken.

4. Pussella Farms is the largest non-halal producing chicken farmer in sri-lanka. They also rear pigs and sells it alongside their chicken in their own shops country-wide. Maxie and Prima (GRAN & TAFL), although non-muslim, produce only Halal chicken. irrespective of ethnicity and religion, why anybody would prefer non-halal chicken to halal chicken, beats me, unless their is a significant price differential of course.

5. At present, their is a rated capacity to produce approx 10-11 Million Kgs of chicken per month in Sri-Lanka. demand is for 7 million kgs per month. This excess capacity along with rising feed price due to commodity price, drought and exchange rate impact, and rising other input costs like electricity and transportation were the main reasons the poultry industry faired poorly in 2012.

6. The import of broiler chicken from India in late 2011 by Minister Johnny and Pussella's aggressive expansion (tripled his output from approx 500,000 kgs to 1.6 million kgs per month) are some of the main reasons for the downfall and glut in the poultry market. needless to say Pussella is paying the price and i hear Minister Johnny is getting into the poultry business !

7. Gran & TAFL have some issues inherent in them that may not be readily understandable to all.
Firstly, Feed which constitutes approx 70 % of COP in Chicken production is supplied by their principles through companies such as Japfeed etc who are also shareholders in GRAN. Their is a lot of incentive to over-invoice feed costs and show lower profits in Sri-Lanka due to price control. Furthermore, TAFL sells the Broiler DOC (Day Old Chick) at a fixed price way below the floating price in the market to its parent GRAN. So not much joy for TAFL shareholders.

8. GRAN grumbles that the fixed price of Rs 370 per kg of Broiler is low and costs are high. Remember the price control is for the chicken with skin. Skinless chicken, chicken parts, boneless chicken etc sell at a premium at the supermarkets for Rs 700-800/ per Kg. 30-50 % of their sales are in these value added areas. The 3rd Segment is the Live Bird (the dressed bird with feathers) for which the price varies between Rs 230-290.

9. After the 2012 dismal showing, the Industry is slowly getting back on its feet. most of the producers have cut back their production and demand is rising. Broiler DOC which were selling for between Rs 40-50 last year are now Rs 70-75. So far, the trend in the poultry sector for 2013, seems to be our friend. Feb & March are good months for the sector.



Last edited by The Alchemist on Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:56 pm; edited 1 time in total

2Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl ?  Empty Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl Fri Mar 01, 2013 7:36 pm

chennaiback


Stock Trader
1. Their is only one listed Egg Producer in the CSE and that is CIC, which is not the market leader. In Sri-Lanka, approx 2 million eggs are consumed daily. Eggs and not chicken are the cheapest source of Protein.

2. All Eggs are Halal - or so they think and say ! The Halal certifying board in Sri-Lanka says that all Eggs are Halal and dont need certification since they are naturally produced by the hen. However, not all Chickens (or Hens) are halal. This is due to two factors i.e. the Feed used and the method of killing. Now it is possible for some producers to feed the hens, feed consisting of non-halal ovine bone meal (as a protein supplement in feed - some use soya) , so technically not all eggs are halal ? classic chicken and egg story !

3. In 2012, their was a bumper Fish catch especially in the North east, which temporararily made fish relatively inexpensive and dampened the demand for chicken.

3Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl ?  Empty Re: Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl ? Sun Mar 03, 2013 1:47 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Wow Chennaiback doing copy paste at 3:06 am!!

I'll add my views:

- Unfortunately chicken stocks are heavily manipulated during bull runs and dumped during bear periods. Hence you get chicken lovers and haters. No amount of fundamental analysis will stop this.

- GRAN's primary business is in feeding which includes poultry, cattle, pigs and fish (the Puttalam stuff).

-TAFL is day old chic/eggs business whilst BFL is broiler stuff. Meat price issues effect BFL more than TAFL whilst egg price issues affect TAFL as opposed to BFL.

- GRAN is affected by the number of animals feeding on its product. According to the Ministry of Livestock the number is 13M poultry, 1.5M cattle, 0.8M pigs, 0.3M buffalo (note as much as you think!!!!)

GRAN should have a better outlook than TAFL. BTW TAFL owes GRAN a load of cash. But as mentioned GRAN buys maize at ridiculous prices. Imported maize carries a 20% tax.

GRAN is the stock that has the most potential in this sector.
The main problem with GRAN is that they have not capitalised on Shrimp production and export (one of their subsidiaries). For those who don't know, Bangladesh is the largest on-field Shrimp producer and exporter in the world. One of the richest britains is a Iqbal Ahmed "King Prawn"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iqbal_Ahmed






4Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl ?  Empty Re: Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl ? Sun Mar 03, 2013 10:49 pm

Vptilak


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
"4. Pussella Farms is the largest non-halal producing chicken farmer in sri-lanka. They also rear pigs and sells it alongside their chicken in their own shops country-wide. Maxie and Prima (GRAN & TAFL), although non-muslim, produce only Halal chicken. irrespective of ethnicity and religion, why anybody would prefer non-halal chicken to halal chicken, beats me, unless their is a significant price differential of course."


If these two companies produce only Halal , I guess their future would be dark. Bcos some ppl now do not like Halal food. Is'nt it?

5Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl ?  Empty Re: Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl ? Mon Mar 04, 2013 8:58 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Vptilak wrote:"4. Pussella Farms is the largest non-halal producing chicken farmer in sri-lanka. They also rear pigs and sells it alongside their chicken in their own shops country-wide. Maxie and Prima (GRAN & TAFL), although non-muslim, produce only Halal chicken. irrespective of ethnicity and religion, why anybody would prefer non-halal chicken to halal chicken, beats me, unless their is a significant price differential of course."


If these two companies produce only Halal , I guess their future would be dark. Bcos some ppl now do not like Halal food. Is'nt it?


This is not an advertisement.

I am more concern about the quality.
In that sense, Pussella broiler chicken are very fresh and hard compared to other suppliers.
They have open their own outlets in most towns in Colombo and fresh meat is supplied daily.
Fat content is low and the flesh is very thick and harder than other products.
Most of others, කුකුළා කුඩුවේ ඉන්න කාලෙට වඩා වැඩි කාලයක් අයිස් පෙට්ටියේ ඉන්නවා .

Hence, they have this + point too.

6Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl ?  Empty Re: Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl ? Mon Mar 04, 2013 10:00 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
I must agree with Chinwi on the Ice box story.. What most of us eat are just frozen chicken.. I wonder why this has not come to our minds before.

BFL's cost advantage is their own maze production. However, their latest results are not in par wit the acceptable growth rates.

7Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl ?  Empty Re: Poultry Matters - Fair or Fowl ? Mon Mar 04, 2013 6:20 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
agree with vntilak, now there is a new community who strongly reject HALAL.

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