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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » ASPI Index, Market Cap, Turnover and the result - Distortion

ASPI Index, Market Cap, Turnover and the result - Distortion

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The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
From Today's Trading Data, the following can be observed -

1. CTC (-6.34), BREW (-3.80), SLT (-2.35), DIST (-1.64), JKH (-2.89), CCS (-1.48), SPENSE (-1.06) AHUN (-0.88). The following shares impacted the ASPI collectively by Negative 20.44 points. The ASPI Index was down overall 20.80 points.

2. The Collective Market Capitalization of the above companies is approx Rs 563 Billion (usd 4.4 Billion). However, the collective turnover today of the above stocks was Rs 9 Million (usd 71,000).
Thus, Turnover : Capitalization Ratio of the above stocks today is Rs 9 million : Rs 563 Billion.
According to my calculator 1.598579 - 0.5 !

3. Total Turnover Today is Rs 1,076,238, 503 ( usd 8.5 Million approx). Turnover of above 8 shares to total turnover is Rs 9,000,000 : Rs 1,076,238,503 or .0084 %

4. From above, it is apparent that a few high market-cap shares trading in very low volumes has a huge impact on ASPI Index. Nothing new but nice to see the how the numbers tell the story !

5. Two things they should fix immediately to prevent manipulation (before Liquidity, Free Float and increasing # of Listed Companies) are :

a. Revert back to a seperate ODD LOT Board.
b. Real Time Volume Weighted Share Prices effect on the ASPI Index. (Not after market closure).

Jiggysaurus

Jiggysaurus
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
The only problematic trade is BREW right? Everything else traded in sufficient quantities relative to the current market size/liquidity of the CSE.

Your option b. would not have had any impact on the BREW trade would it?

Light of Hope


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
This is the problem with a such a small market like CSE, very little liquidity. That's why a single counter can make such a impact. Big investors do find it difficult to enter or exit. Anyways it has already been identified by the CSE

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Jiggysaurus wrote:The only problematic trade is BREW right? Everything else traded in sufficient quantities relative to the current market size/liquidity of the CSE.

Your option b. would not have had any impact on the BREW trade would it?


1. Re BREW Trades - 1 BREW share traded at rs 350.10 (-120) at 11.45 am. then 2 BREW shares traded at 400 (-70) at 1.33 pm
If ODD LOTS are to trade on main board and contribute to ASPI, (which i'm not advocating), then impact on Index for BREW which has a 0.39 % index weightage on the ASPI which at 5650 means that since price dropped by almost 25 % at 11.45 a.m., the impact on the ASPI was 5650 * 0.39 % * 25 % = 5.5 points. Then when 2 shares traded at 1.33 pm, the volume weighted average price should have reflected as Rs 383 to which the index only adjusted after trading hours, but the ASPI index reflected the price of BREW at Rs 400 after 1.33 p.m, thereby upwardly distorting the Index.
The main point here being that BREW dropped on average 18.5 % on 3 shares and negatively impacted the ASPI by 4 % when these shares should have traded on the ODD LOT Board.

2. " Everything else traded in sufficient quantities relative to the current market size/liquidity of the CSE." Not Really. Of the 8 stocks mentioned above (which together constitutes approx 25 % of our Total Market Cap) which negatively impacted the ASPI by 20 points, their combined turnover was a mere Rs 9 Million (combined Market Cap of Rs 563 Billion) out of the days Total Turnover of over Rs 1 Billion. Less than 1 %.

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t26383-sri-lanka-brewery-to-produce-fosters-lager#154657

Aha! No wonder BREW price dropped ! Smile

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think this affects if we analysis only a day data.
We cannot see counters such CTC/BREW/CARS/SLT will go down for 3 or 4 consecutive days
Ex: Cannot see BREW go down to Rs 250 in 4 days.

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