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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Economic outlook ... not so bad

Economic outlook ... not so bad

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1Economic outlook ... not so bad Empty Economic outlook ... not so bad Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:04 am

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Read the 2 paragraphs....If we can buy a billion dollars from the market that would be great!!

So far during the year, the balance of payments has continued to record a surplus, and a comfortable overall surplus is anticipated in 2013. In fact, although the Central Bank has purchased US dollars 486 million on a net basis from the market this year, greater stability of the exchange rate has been observed owing to increased foreign exchange inflows to the government securities market, and from tourism and private transfers.

In the meantime, it has been a matter of some concern that two months after relaxing monetary policy, interest rates pertaining to both deposit and lending interest rates still remain high. However, following recent discussions that the Central Bank had with leadingcommercial banks, it is anticipated that both deposit rates and lending rates will be adjusted in the near term, in line with the direction of monetary policy. When such adjustment takes place, it is expected to stimulate private sector economic activitytowards the growth targets for 2013.

http://www.4-traders.com/news/Central-Bank-of-Sri-Lanka-Monetary-Policy-Review-March-2013--16511885/

2Economic outlook ... not so bad Empty Re: Economic outlook ... not so bad Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:53 am

knockknobbler


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
What is great in borrowing billion dollars ?
To off-set losses in CEB, CPC, Mihinlanka , Hambantota Port, Mattala Air port or to hold new elections ?
are we going to believe what Cabraal ....says about the economy ?
Read some other opinions /facts also, and judge.

From today's Island business page ..............

Business Monitor International (BMI), a leading, independent provider of proprietary data, analysis, ratings, rankings and forecasts covering 175 countries and 22 industry sectors in a special report on Sri Lanka pointed out that economic growth would reach 5.4 percent this year, lower than estimates of the IMF (6.25 percent) and government ( 7/7.5 percent).

"We do not see the island’s economic growth turning up until H213 at the very earliest, implying that the ongoing slowdown will likely intensify in H113," the agency, specialising in emerging markets, economics, country risk, forecasts, analysis, industry research and company intelligence said.

"We are keeping to our 5.4% full-year real GDP growth forecast for the year. The island’s economy is still feeling the pinch on multiply fronts - the high credit costs, the weak Sri Lankan rupee, and the fragile state of developed markets," it said.

"With price concerns gradually coming off the table, we believe that the primary focus of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL)’s policies over the coming twelve months will be fixed on economic growth. We are projecting 100 basis points (bps) worth of additional easing in 2013, taking the reverse repo rate to 8.50% by end-2013. Crucially, the CBSL’s annual Road Map signals further loosening of monetary policy in the months ahead.

"Currency stability is likely to be the overriding theme going forward as the central bank looks to foster some sense of it after a fairly volatile 2012. The CBSL explicitly expressed exchange rate stability as one of its policy priorities in its annual Road Map for the year ahead, reiterating its willingness to intervene if need be.

"We have long cautioned that the political unassailability of the ruling United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) greatly increases the risk of government overreach. Recent developments, such as the highly controversial impeachment of the chief justice, have only bolstered our view.

"More than two and a half years after the EU decided to withdraw preferential tariff benefits to Sri Lanka, it appears that the country’s exporters are now beginning to feel the economic squeeze. The ruling government’s inadequate progress on the human rights front suggests to us that these privileges are unlikely to be reinstated any time soon."
http://www.island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=74189

3Economic outlook ... not so bad Empty Re: Economic outlook ... not so bad Fri Mar 08, 2013 11:41 am

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
No no.... what I'm saying is the BOP surplus and the fact that we are dollarising the reserves.

Buying dollars by selling rupees. We need to do this more so that we can hold more dollars. Even corporates should try to dollarise their reserves. If you hold US$ repo, you can borrow against it at 150 bps above the USD repo rate (ie 0.89% + 1.50% etc).

I would like to see the EPF dollarise a small portion of its assets to reduce currency depreciation risk.


As for the negative articles, it is actually good to see more SL business engage with the international market. It is too early to say things as we must look at the book build.




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