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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CIFL aiyo salli?

CIFL aiyo salli?

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21CIFL aiyo salli? - Page 2 Empty Re: CIFL aiyo salli? Tue Mar 12, 2013 6:29 pm

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?

Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.


Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.





@knockknobbler wrote:I don't think there is any point in discussing , Business Plan ,financial performance, Balance Sheet strength ,future prospects of this type of companies. No investor will touch these.
Like SEMB, BLUE, GREG-W, ...etc, these are the turf of Traders. When You are Trading , ll there are certain rules you have to observe, but the issues you all are discussing above, is immaterial for a Trader.

22CIFL aiyo salli? - Page 2 Empty Re: CIFL aiyo salli? Tue Mar 12, 2013 7:45 pm

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yes SEMB cannot be in that category. But I don't think it improved its bottom line. It was making profit 2009 there after it failed, any improvement is zigzag through out the years. For banking sector this looks over valued share.As per Dr. senthil, he even invested in TFC and Lcem. For him these investments are just peanut and he may not expect much turnaround, if it turns he will push the price and sell it, so his profit from turn around one could compensate the loosing company even it goes bankrupt. Without knowing his strategy, it would be risky to follow sum1.

@slstock wrote:You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?

Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.


Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.





@knockknobbler wrote:I don't think there is any point in discussing , Business Plan ,financial performance, Balance Sheet strength ,future prospects of this type of companies. No investor will touch these.
Like SEMB, BLUE, GREG-W, ...etc, these are the turf of Traders. When You are Trading , ll there are certain rules you have to observe, but the issues you all are discussing above, is immaterial for a Trader.

23CIFL aiyo salli? - Page 2 Empty Re: CIFL aiyo salli? Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:16 pm

gamaya


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Even bad companies can have rallies.

Sometimes we may inadvertantly contribute by condemning a share for certain parties to collect at very low levels.

24CIFL aiyo salli? - Page 2 Empty Re: CIFL aiyo salli? Wed Mar 13, 2013 3:56 am

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Less than 1 million to 62 million profit increase is something. Can they continue the trend this year is what is to be watched.

Like Gamaya said any company can have its day when it is listed at CSE. Whether to trade or invest is another decision.


@Jana1 wrote:Yes SEMB cannot be in that category. But I don't think it improved its bottom line. It was making profit 2009 there after it failed, any improvement is zigzag through out the years. For banking sector this looks over valued share.As per Dr. senthil, he even invested in TFC and Lcem. For him these investments are just peanut and he may not expect much turnaround, if it turns he will push the price and sell it, so his profit from turn around one could compensate the loosing company even it goes bankrupt. Without knowing his strategy, it would be risky to follow sum1.

@slstock wrote:You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?

Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.


Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.





@knockknobbler wrote:I don't think there is any point in discussing , Business Plan ,financial performance, Balance Sheet strength ,future prospects of this type of companies. No investor will touch these.
Like SEMB, BLUE, GREG-W, ...etc, these are the turf of Traders. When You are Trading , ll there are certain rules you have to observe, but the issues you all are discussing above, is immaterial for a Trader.

25CIFL aiyo salli? - Page 2 Empty Re: CIFL aiyo salli? Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:29 am

knockknobbler


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?
Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.
Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.

I am not saying SEMB is "that bad ". I am looking at the broader picture.
Look at the industry and the industry segment, companies like SEMB are in.
# There are 30 odd listed companies in this financial services ( leasing, hire purchase, private loans ,dealings in property ...) . all are at cut throat competition to attract deposits as well as to grant loans/ leases.
# Since Banks, established finance companies like CFIN ,LFIN are also competing in this market segment, these companies have to offer high rates to attract deposits and they are left over with a client base at the high risk end.
# most of the companies are not having a track record or the backing of a financial heavyweight ( except few like CFIN, LFIN, VFIN , PLC ... ) and are subject to severe strains , if there is rise in interest rates .
#most pressing issue is that the company is subject t collapse overnight, if there is a "run" and subsequent collapse of any one company in the industry.

An investor who is looking for stabity, growth, and returns on a long term basis, will not enter into this type of industry, though some companies within the industry might show good results on quarterly/ annual basis, and indicate consistent improvements.

With regard to Dr Senthil 's involvement in SEMB , he must be there with a specific strategy. Rather than investing in growth prospects, they are essentially dealing in securities, and I doubt whether a retail investor can align his strategy with the strategy of that type of investor.

26CIFL aiyo salli? - Page 2 Empty Re: CIFL aiyo salli? Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:50 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I agree about the competetion and some of the concerns you raised. But on the other hand smaller companeis if managed well can grow faster and quicker than more established one. Reg SEMB till will only tell. Atleast is had been heading up not down the last few quarters.

I recall SEMB had some alliance with Ashok Leyland. Not sure whether it still exists. LEyland also was not doing well due to economy.

Like I mentioned else where , the decision to invest or trade is up to us. Also SEMB.X warrant conversion was at 2 times current price but few were converted. SEMB.N at Rs 1.



Your below comment 'I do not agree.

@knockknobbler wrote:

An investor who is looking for stabity,
growth, and returns on a long term basis, will not enter into this type
of industry, though some companies within the industry might show good
results on quarterly/ annual basis, and indicate consistent
improvements.



Think about the companies you mentioned CFIN, LFIN, PLC. CFIN has shown consistent growth over decades not years. LFIN after a big turn around from Vanik management , it is giving a good run to CFIN.

PLC is probably the safest due to gov backing.

27CIFL aiyo salli? - Page 2 Empty Re: CIFL aiyo salli? Thu Mar 14, 2013 8:23 am

knockknobbler


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:


Your below comment 'I do not agree.


Think about the companies you mentioned CFIN, LFIN, PLC. CFIN has shown consistent growth over decades not years. LFIN after a big turn around from Vanik management , it is giving a good run to CFIN.

PLC is probably the safest due to gov backing.

I agree CFIN has shown consistent growth over decades.

This is exactly the same point, I am making. Think about the industry structure and market conditions during those decades . Finance companies had a distinct market segment for their products /services-. leasing, hire purchase , property loans ,personal loans etc, . The main point is established Banks did not intrude into this area. There were few finance companies ( less than 5 ?) and they were mindful about the risk /return ,since they have developed business practices , expertise over the years.

There was not cut throat competition .The people behind the finance companies were respected and trusted ( even -Kotalawala @TFC). When VANIK was developing liquidity problems, LFIN was not in trouble ,because the operations / management were separate. That's why VANIK was able sell LFIN at a good price, unlike the sale of it's other assets. .
CFIN had another advantage because of their regional presence ( Kandy area ).
Compare the industry structure, market conditions ,then and NOW. Can a rational fund manager conclude that companies like CFIN, LFIN, can maintain same growth rates and risk profile ? I doubt !
With regard to PLC, (I have not studied ) ,but I sense PLC is the most inefficient company in this lot, because it originated from Peoples Bank and it has grown oversize. Recently I heard a person with political connections was appointed as CEO ,paying very high salaries and perks.Probably , you know about the new Chairman and have an idea about his qualification, experience, suitability of leading a business enterprise of this nature. I hope a research / study is available, comparing staff /overhead costs to income , profits and NPL ratios.

28CIFL aiyo salli? - Page 2 Empty Re: CIFL aiyo salli? Thu Mar 14, 2013 9:33 am

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
knockknobbler

Very good comment. Thanks.

VFIN still maintain a 50% + growth over rev. and profit over last year as well. I dont know how they exaggerate the growth like this since we dont see any rushing advertising campaigns or branch expansion like COCR of Lfin. My point is VFIN shows the childhood of LFIN and the people who get a stake will be winners in 3 to 5 years time. That is what Divsa finance has done ( See the top 20 list of VFIN )

And if you take COCR they create new products. See their advertisement on Fixed deposits and Electronic items. This is the first time we saw some thing like this in Sri Lnaka. Any way if you are really aggressive you can beat others in any market.

For an example LFIN now having a portfolio of imported Branded luxury vehicles where they give the vehicle to the buyer with in few days but the leasing should be done through LFIN. They can deliver the vehicle faster than other reputed vehicle sales................Like wise Finance is a sector in which you can create new things to make money. having huge No. of players is not a issue in a growing country as far as the sector is well governed.

29CIFL aiyo salli? - Page 2 Empty Re: CIFL aiyo salli? Thu Mar 14, 2013 10:00 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Both KK and Arena comments needs to be noted.

When the competition gets tougher the survival of the fittest ( most innovative and aggressive) will win.

Regading VFIN, they have opened 2 new bracnhes within the last 6 months few months. I agree VFIN is going at a very fast rate and has a lot more possibilities to expand. Still trying to figure out why DP wants LFIN and VFIN. Many products are replicating. Does he want to make VFIN grow and sell off or merge with LFIN?

COCR and VFIN seems very potential companiesfor the future. But COCR ambitions are a bit too optimistic. They said they wantto make the share R 280 or something withing 2 or 3 years! Let give a few more quarter to figure out the growth momentum of these companies.




@Arena wrote:knockknobbler

Very good comment. Thanks.

VFIN still maintain a 50% + growth over rev. and profit over last year as well. I dont know how they exaggerate the growth like this since we dont see any rushing advertising campaigns or branch expansion like COCR of Lfin. My point is VFIN shows the childhood of LFIN and the people who get a stake will be winners in 3 to 5 years time. That is what Divsa finance has done ( See the top 20 list of VFIN )

And if you take COCR they create new products. See their advertisement on Fixed deposits and Electronic items. This is the first time we saw some thing like this in Sri Lnaka. Any way if you are really aggressive you can beat others in any market.

For an example LFIN now having a portfolio of imported Branded luxury vehicles where they give the vehicle to the buyer with in few days but the leasing should be done through LFIN. They can deliver the vehicle faster than other reputed vehicle sales................Like wise Finance is a sector in which you can create new things to make money. having huge No. of players is not a issue in a growing country as far as the sector is well governed.

30CIFL aiyo salli? - Page 2 Empty CIFL pricees further down Thu Mar 14, 2013 1:10 pm

Janaka Gunathilake


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Cifl prices are going down.when it will be stop that down

31CIFL aiyo salli? - Page 2 Empty Re: CIFL aiyo salli? Thu Mar 14, 2013 1:19 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Did you read this post from the top?


@Janaka Gunathilake wrote:Cifl prices are going down.when it will be stop that down

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