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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Next run would be with NTB

Next run would be with NTB

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1Next run would be with NTB Empty Next run would be with NTB Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:04 am

hettdas

hettdas
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
NDB, SAMP, COMB already went up. Now NTB should start soon.
I think according to Central bank JKH stake of NTB should reduce. My broker said NTB should reach at leaset 75 before end of this year. Very Happy

2Next run would be with NTB Empty Re: Next run would be with NTB Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:31 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
That should be a realistic target. If some large buying happen who knows what can happen.

3Next run would be with NTB Empty Re: Next run would be with NTB Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:46 am

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I don’t think NTB deserve that kind of valuation. It is the smallest commercial bank among the top tier (top 5). It has grown but with low base. It is easy to grow faster than the incumbent when you carve a niche.it has reached the potential, now it has to compete in the mainstream. This will put pressure on their margins and ROE which is very good right now. Its trading at PBV 1.4 compared to 1.5 PBV of SAMP & HNB which is fair.

4Next run would be with NTB Empty Re: Next run would be with NTB Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:54 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Disagree about valuations. However breaking Rs 65-70 is ket for any further appreaciation. It got stuck between Rs 6-65 many times. Also if JKH and CFIN disposed their stake (which was to be done last year but an extention was asked) it iwll be nuts to sell at this levels.

So a PE around 9 and NAV around market is not asking for too much for mid priced share ( of couse in a run).


Also their branch expansion done in 2010-2012 should start breaking even.



@salt wrote:I don’t think NTB deserve that kind of valuation. It is the smallest commercial bank among the top tier (top 5). It has grown but with low base. It is easy to grow faster than the incumbent when you carve a niche.it has reached the potential, now it has to compete in the mainstream. This will put pressure on their margins and ROE which is very good right now. Its trading at PBV 1.4 compared to 1.5 PBV of SAMP & HNB which is fair.

5Next run would be with NTB Empty Re: Next run would be with NTB Mon Mar 18, 2013 11:58 am

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
NTB is not mid priced share.
look at the size, this is complete misconception of the market.
Commercial Banking group assets (LKR Billions), NDB 172 DFCC 136 NTB 123
I don't think PER has greater validity for a bank. NAV is LKR 43.55, trading at 1.4 times. Even at PER 7.5 is quite close to other banks( HNB & SAMP).
There is no extraordinary case for NTB to run. It has moved in line with other banking group

6Next run would be with NTB Empty Re: Next run would be with NTB Mon Mar 18, 2013 12:08 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Hettas mentioned Rs 75 by the end if the year. His title is confusing in that account.. I am not talking about immediate price movements. But if someone want to push ( due to JKH or CFIN issue) anything can happen. Also after dividend price may pull back a bit if market remains the same.

Note SEYB and NTB trades closre in price over the last few years. SEYB NAV is more but EPS is lessers. So NTB catching up with NAV faster. So growth is a factor investor will consider.

I am sure at some point people said same about saturation for SAMP, COMB etc . But they keep growing . So a lot depends on how string t he managment is and the growth plans.






@salt wrote:NTB is not mid priced share.
look at the size, this is complete misconception of the market.
Commercial Banking group assets (LKR Billions), NDB 172 DFCC 136 NTB 123
I don't think PER has greater validity for a bank. NAV is LKR 43.55, trading at 1.4 times. Even at PER 7.5 is quite close to other banks( HNB & SAMP).
There is no extraordinary case for NTB to run. It has moved in line with other banking group

7Next run would be with NTB Empty Re: Next run would be with NTB Mon Mar 18, 2013 12:49 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Hettas mentioned Rs 75 by the end if the year. His title is confusing in that account.. I am not talking about immediate price movements. But if someone want to push ( due to JKH or CFIN issue) anything can happen. Also after dividend price may pull back a bit if market remains the same.

Note SEYB and NTB trades closre in price over the last few years. SEYB NAV is more but EPS is lessers. So NTB catching up with NAV faster. So growth is a factor investor will consider.

I am sure at some point people said same about saturation for SAMP, COMB etc . But they keep growing . So a lot depends on how string t he managment is and the growth plans.


@salt wrote:NTB is not mid priced share.
look at the size, this is complete misconception of the market.
Commercial Banking group assets (LKR Billions), NDB 172 DFCC 136 NTB 123
I don't think PER has greater validity for a bank. NAV is LKR 43.55, trading at 1.4 times. Even at PER 7.5 is quite close to other banks( HNB & SAMP).
There is no extraordinary case for NTB to run. It has moved in line with other banking group

NTB is profitable today due to two acquisitions. Without these two, the expenses would exceed net income. Both these two contribute around 20% of Net Income each. That is the fact behind the figures!

1. Mercantile Leasing
2. Amex franchise

8Next run would be with NTB Empty Re: Next run would be with NTB Mon Mar 18, 2013 1:22 pm

raptor


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
HNB is the next bank share to run, it was stuck around the 140-150 level and has finally started moving. Might be late to get in though now. NTB has lots of selling pressure to come with JKH having to reduce its stake to under 10%

9Next run would be with NTB Empty Re: Next run would be with NTB Mon Mar 18, 2013 2:04 pm

Harry82

Harry82
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
i also say that.
i also collecting today

10Next run would be with NTB Empty Re: Next run would be with NTB Mon Mar 18, 2013 2:24 pm

Harry82

Harry82
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
NDB will give Final divident within this month

11Next run would be with NTB Empty Re: Next run would be with NTB Mon Mar 18, 2013 7:38 pm

ronstyn


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Will JKH and CFIN be allowed to hold their stakes in NTB?

Share Limits
22 Feb, 2013 10:12:53
Sri Lanka regulator to revisit bank shareholder limits: report
Feb 22, 2013 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's central bank will look at "the need for raising" shareholder ceilings imposed on banks, a media report said, quoting Central Bank Governor Nivard Cabraal.
Reuters, a news agency quoted Cabraal as saying on the sidelines of an investor meeting in India that, for the moment existing rules shall apply.

Under Sri Lanka's existing law a single shareholder limit of 10 percent applies to banks though related parties can go up to 15 percent.

Special permission had also been given for some banks to allow higher shareholders limits.

But there are also listed banks with higher shareholder limits, where existing shareholders have been given deadlines to sell down.

Several state entities have also bought stock in private banks, exceeding the limit.
http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=451478724

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