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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » GUAR & CINV Comprehensive Portfolio Analysis

GUAR & CINV Comprehensive Portfolio Analysis

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Backstage


Moderator
Moderator
I have been hearing about a potential CINV/Guard merger. (note hearsay) Anyone else heard this ?

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Backstage wrote:I have been hearing about a potential CINV/Guard merger. (note hearsay) Anyone else heard this ?

I dont think there will be merger, since GUAR has controlling stake of 65% in CINV. No need for that.


Happy Trading

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@seyon wrote:
Let us recap the CINV and GUAR Financial ( 31.03.2011).

CINV

Investment in associate 3,079 Mn, this is an investment in Rubber investment trust fund (RITF) which has 20% stake in BUKI, The mkt value of investment portfolio RITF attributable to CINV is 13.7Bn

Long term investment in quoted equities 3.5bn I can see some changes were taken place Fund allocated more in banking sector ( Recent investment in SAMB) and invested in manufacturing sector that should be the Tkyo Cement nonvoting shares is about 195 mn shares (invested 4.4Mn shares). Further diversified sectors also boosted up may be due to increasing mkt value and short term investment is reported Rs.697 Mn

Realized Capital gain 487 mn EPS Rs.11

Net assets per share - Market Value (Rs.) - 181, This is very much attractive when compare with current mkt price and switching fund to potential investment ( SAMB, TKYO and etc)

GUAR

Company's Long term investment in quoted equities 4.4bn I can see some changes were taken place Fund allocated more in banking sector ( Recent investment in SAMB). Further diversified sectors and BFT also boosted up may be due to increasing mkt value and short term investment is reported Rs.101 Mn

Realized Capital gain 1.1 bn EPS Rs.19.23 For company Group 29.87 ( Including earnings from CINV)

Net assets per share - Market Value (Rs.) Company -386 and Group 346, currently trading at fair value.

Happy Trading.



Annual Reports of CINV and GUAR were released yesterday evening.. Let us look those

CINV - Total Portfolio Rs.17,797,997,000 Where as last year Rs.6,613,895,000.

Per share value is Rs.180, current trading at discount price.. Further as i said earlier Fund invested 4.4Mn shares in Tokyo Cement PLC (Non Voting) for long term fund and 800,000 Shares in Sampath bank as long term investment and 400,000 as short term investment. these are the major changes in the portfolio.


GUAR. Total Portfolio Rs.36,282,043,000 Where as last year Rs.13,583,583,000.

Per share value is Rs.442, current trading at discount price.. Further as i said earlier Fund invested 804,900 shares in in Sampath bank as long term investment, that is only the major changes in the portfolio.





seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Both are very attractive price at Present context, do ur own analysis and enter.

stumpy


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
wow! 3 fold increase in portfolios...

Sad thing is "I don't have money to buy them bro!"

ISURU

ISURU
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@seyon wrote:Both are very attractive price at Present context, do ur own analysis and enter.
But day by day GUAR share price is coming down (specially in green mkts also) what's wrong?

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Are they slow to recover?

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ISURU wrote:
@seyon wrote:Both are very attractive price at Present context, do ur own analysis and enter.
But day by day GUAR share price is coming down (specially in green mkts also) what's wrong?

CARS Group time to time have a good run. If u analyze the MKT behavior these days, no blueship companies does have upward momentum, Only few stocks which does not have any fundamentals are performing well due to manipulation. Generally If u analyze the CINV and GUAR Portfolio, which includes all strong bluship stocks., so if these bluship stocks perform well only, these shares will have a good run. Now CSE is thinking to introduce the DVP System ( Delivery vs Payment System) quickly. If they adopt this system, this would benefit only to fundamental strong shares, so called hot stocks due to manipulation will be out of flavor.

ISURU

ISURU
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@seyon wrote:
@ISURU wrote:
@seyon wrote:Both are very attractive price at Present context, do ur own analysis and enter.
But day by day GUAR share price is coming down (specially in green mkts also) what's wrong?

CARS Group time to time have a good run. If u analyze the MKT behavior these days, no blueship companies does have upward momentum, Only few stocks which does not have any fundamentals are performing well due to manipulation. Generally If u analyze the CINV and GUAR Portfolio, which includes all strong bluship stocks., so if these bluship stocks perform well only, these shares will have a good run. Now CSE is thinking to introduce the DVP System ( Delivery vs Payment System) quickly. If they adopt this system, this would benefit only to fundamental strong shares, so called hot stocks due to manipulation will be out of flavor.

Thanks Seyon

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

@sayon

Do you mean fundamentals are more important in the near future?

yoyo

yoyo
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
What is DVP system ? Could you please explain a bit Seyon ?

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@yoyo wrote:What is DVP system ? Could you please explain a bit Seyon ?

Refer this discussion.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t5305-how-dvps-delivery-versus-payment-system-will-benefit-to-cse

yoyo

yoyo
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@seyon wrote:
@yoyo wrote:What is DVP system ? Could you please explain a bit Seyon ?

Refer this discussion.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t5305-how-dvps-delivery-versus-payment-system-will-benefit-to-cse

Thanks Bro

ShareShares


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@yoyo wrote:
@seyon wrote:
@yoyo wrote:What is DVP system ? Could you please explain a bit Seyon ?

Refer this discussion.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t5305-how-dvps-delivery-versus-payment-system-will-benefit-to-cse

Thanks Bro

When are they planning to introduce such a system?

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ShareShares wrote:
@yoyo wrote:
@seyon wrote:
@yoyo wrote:What is DVP system ? Could you please explain a bit Seyon ?

Refer this discussion.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t5305-how-dvps-delivery-versus-payment-system-will-benefit-to-cse

Thanks Bro

When are they planning to introduce such a system?

Near Future.

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ISURU wrote:
@seyon wrote:Both are very attractive price at Present context, do ur own analysis and enter.
But day by day GUAR share price is coming down (specially in green mkts also) what's wrong?


GUAR , slowly returning to earlier levels, cllected at 400. this one was trading below NAVPS.

ashlee


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
So what do you guys think????? Is CINV a good buy at 135????

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ashlee wrote:So what do you guys think????? Is CINV a good buy at 135????

Now both are at discount price comparing with their NAV. If u gothrough our discussion, then u will be able to make a decision whether to buy or not.

ShareShares


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@seyon wrote:
@ashlee wrote:So what do you guys think????? Is CINV a good buy at 135????

Now both are at discount price comparing with their NAV. If u gothrough our discussion, then u will be able to make a decision whether to buy or not.




Problem is to find additional funds these days, GUAR may be more attractive. noticed lot of activity going on. foreigners may be collecting.

Soundchips


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ashlee wrote:So what do you guys think????? Is CINV a good buy at 135????


All depend on market performance. ...First of all current stagnation need to see an end. Smile

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
CINV & GUAR partly exit from the SHL with nearly 200% gain. Today also there were private deals @ 20,22, this may be from these funds.

Private placement investor Carson Group books profit by part selling stake at prices below Rs. 20

http://www.ft.lk/2011/07/13/sabotage-shakes-softlogic/

econ

econ
Global Moderator
Carsons seem to exited with Private placement of Softlogic. Usually pp are for long term investments not for short term gains. And I think carsons are the main reason for this Softlogic fiasco. So analysts have consern over carsons investment strategies.

Aamiable


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Cannot understand why soft logic allows so many private placements for IPO,..unless SHL make a profit from the PP they do not accommodate private placements……. knowing that they book profits. ….Soft logic should have ideally offered all shares to the public at a lower price. ….SHL making profits PPs making profits. …Wonder whether public would subscribe for any future IPO.

and SHL buy own shares later on with those profits..

Question

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Nearly 200% return within one year

Carsons Group had sold almost the entirety of its shareholding obtained in the private placement of Softlogic in February 2010 worth Rs. 7.20 per share. The sale of around 9 million shares by Carson’s investment arm on Tuesday contributed to the slide of Softlogic as it sent wrong signal. The basis for this was usually those who are approached for private issues tend to be medium to long term shareholders. In the case of Softlogic, Carson had a change of heart and mind and its exit was still at a profit given its average cost being much lower. Analysts attributed Carson’s sale to it wanting to reallocate resources to other investments or ventures.

http://www.ft.lk/2011/07/14/spirited-rebound-by-softlogic/

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@econ wrote:Carsons seem to exited with Private placement of Softlogic. Usually pp are for long term investments not for short term gains. And I think carsons are the main reason for this Softlogic fiasco. So analysts have consern over carsons investment strategies.

Exit from SHL is ok as the funds have been holding more than one year, they use the opportunity to book the profit and relocate the fund to other investment.

However, exit in very first day made disaster to SHL. This practice is not good for the professional fund managers. At least the may wait for two or three days.

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