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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Kissing the dust... PAP

Kissing the dust... PAP

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1Kissing the dust... PAP Empty Kissing the dust... PAP Wed Feb 02, 2011 2:35 pm

xmart

xmart
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
First I'm very much positive with Renewable energy in Sri Lanka. So I had very good faith in all hydro power producers and who moving to that business. since I had such interest on this sector, I had ton of PAPs. so my post may be bias. don't take decision only based on this post.

IPO for 3. then start with 3.5. but Annualized EPS is about 0.35 without considering its subsidiary. very good plant factor at 60%. its subsidiary is operating at 30% plant factor. consolidate power generation is 4.5 MW. PAP plant is only 2 MW. so they can produce at least 0.4 EPS for coming year. then minimum valuation would be 4.8 with 12 PER. but considering average PE of 15 it can reach 6 Rs easily.

I observed during last week bears were getting tiered. today we saw a small sign of bulls. is this a possible reversal?

value your comments!

2Kissing the dust... PAP Empty Re: Kissing the dust... PAP Wed Feb 02, 2011 2:39 pm

Meta Trader

Meta Trader
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
that is true . i noticed some buying pressure in power sector specially HPWR , and HPFL . lets see Wink

3Kissing the dust... PAP Empty Re: Kissing the dust... PAP Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:06 pm

hotstock


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Whats the current net asset value of PAP. thanks.

4Kissing the dust... PAP Empty Re: Kissing the dust... PAP Wed Feb 02, 2011 11:05 pm

xmart

xmart
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
HPWR, VLL and VPEL record good numbers also attractive dividends too. now I'm more and more positive with PAP. they are debt free. High ROE, High DY. but those are not hot stocks like PCH, REEF, LGL or solid stock like SAMP, JKH, CFLB, BFL. but i like them.
poor me.. Sad

5Kissing the dust... PAP Empty Re: Kissing the dust... PAP Thu Feb 03, 2011 4:09 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@xmart wrote:HPWR, VLL and VPEL record good numbers also attractive dividends too. now I'm more and more positive with PAP. they are debt free. High ROE, High DY. but those are not hot stocks like PCH, REEF, LGL or solid stock like SAMP, JKH, CFLB, BFL. but i like them.
poor me.. Sad

We need to do more study on PAP . Seems they will have potential with newer expansion. However ot of the Power Companies HPWR and PAP is relatively undervalued.

6Kissing the dust... PAP Empty Re: Kissing the dust... PAP Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:00 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
All of them make good profits because of the unusually high purchasing price of CEB.
How long they can continue this / how many years the enjoy this as per their agreement ? These -ve questions come in to mind when valuating power shares ....

Somehow at the moment they are OK.
When considering PAP I am very much sure it can double-treble its asset value, with earnings + re-valuation, in few seasons before anything happen. Hence, even if buying price reduced or Govt. start to charge for water they get free at the moment I think we can get good return before that.

7Kissing the dust... PAP Empty Re: Kissing the dust... PAP Thu Feb 03, 2011 8:55 am

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hi Guys

PAP is right time to collect now. In this sector PAP and HPWR are lowest value shares. still it has a room to go up... I am expecting this would hit in the range of Rs.5.5 to 6 on releasing the financial.. The 3rd quarter results was very attractive. the bottom line is about 36Mn.But first six months only 45Mn. This would highlight the the company on growth tack.... the annualized EPS would more than Rs..50 cents and NAV is about Rs.160...

You could see the performance indicator ...... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=PAP:SL

Happy Trading...

8Kissing the dust... PAP Empty Re: Kissing the dust... PAP Thu Feb 03, 2011 9:28 am

xmart

xmart
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:All of them make good profits because of the unusually high purchasing price of CEB.
How long they can continue this / how many years the enjoy this as per their agreement ? These -ve questions come in to mind when valuating power shares ....

Somehow at the moment they are OK.
When considering PAP I am very much sure it can double-treble its asset value, with earnings + re-valuation, in few seasons before anything happen. Hence, even if buying price reduced or Govt. start to charge for water they get free at the moment I think we can get good return before that.

All PPPs have 15-20 year government guaranteed power purchase agreements. for most of them, 80-90% floor price is fixed. but according to past experience we can say purchase tariff is increasing annually.

also they are enjoying 2 type of tariff in a year. dry season and wet season. dry season tariff are much higher than wet tariff. so purchasing tariff of mini hydro plants are in positive direction.

second thing is, price for water.
even now water is not for free. they have to pay some annual payment. but considering its turnover that cost is much less.

I'm sorry I did detail post regarding mini hydro and renewable energy factor in sri lanka at investnow.lk. but i can't reproduce all because, simply i haven't much time.

thanks

9Kissing the dust... PAP Empty Re: Kissing the dust... PAP Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:24 am

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
PAP is on track, the buyers are coming in....

10Kissing the dust... PAP Empty Re: Kissing the dust... PAP Tue Feb 08, 2011 3:30 pm

seyon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
[quote="xmart"]
@Chinwi wrote:All of them make good profits because of the unusually high purchasing price of CEB.
How long they can continue this / how many years the enjoy this as per their agreement ? These -ve questions come in to mind when valuating power shares ....

Somehow at the moment they are OK.
When considering PAP I am very much sure it can double-treble its asset value, with earnings + re-valuation, in few seasons before anything happen. Hence, even if buying price reduced or Govt. start to charge for water they get free at the moment I think we can get good return before that.

All PPPs have 15-20 year government guaranteed power purchase agreements. for most of them, 80-90% floor price is fixed. but according to past experience we can say purchase tariff is increasing annually.

also they are enjoying 2 type of tariff in a year. dry season and wet season. dry season tariff are much higher than wet tariff. so
purchasing tariff of mini hydro plants are in positive direction.


Hi Xmart

As you said PAP at present is very undervalued...

when will look at it earnings

Pan Asian Power - For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) ----45,159,110
Manelwala For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) ----- 6,421,291
Total For 6 Months ( 30th Sep) - ---51,580,401

3rd & 4th quarter Expected Profit -----70,000,000

Total -----131,580,401

Issued qty ------500,000,000

Annualized EPS ------ Rs.0.26

Current MKT Price ------ Rs.4.20

PE ------- Only 16 times

However in bloomberg has not adjusted Manelwala earnings and not annualised.. ( http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=PAP:SL)

When you look at the other companies in power sector

VLL- 23 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=VLL:SL
HPWR -19 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HPWR:SL
VPEL - 17 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=VPEL:SL
HPFL - 23 Times http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HPFL:SL

when HPWR was Rs.30 level I was telling in Investnow PAP and HPWR are the undervalued stock in the sectors. Now HPWR as i expected it hit rs.42 level...

My prediction is PAP will hit in the Range of Rs.5.20 5.50 once they release it financial and coming quarters..

Happy Trading..

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