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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months?

Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months?

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hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
After a long time I am starting a thread. Is it too controversial or too hot or too optimistic?

Personally I do not like rapid runs. But now a days growing more than 50% within a short time period is not a surprise. Japanese index Nikkei (N225) has grown more than 50%, actually speaking 57.95% during last six months. A mammoth increase.

I thought banking stocks will take a breath after XD, but the way foreigners are buying, I think there’s more steam than most of us thought.

There are some highly capitalized companies which are at penny prices, but can value more than twice/thrice easily. All the small-caps, mid-caps and a good no of large-caps are still at very low price levels.
Only worry is JKH. If it can remain in the current price levels, market growth of 50% in 15 months, I don't think it's a dream!

Open for a FRUITFULL discussion.

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
An average increase of more than 100 points per month is certainly possible, but not probable over extended periods.

I believe that the ASI will have a more gradual rise this time, and will exceed:
6000 by June 2013
7000 during 2014 and
8000 during 2015
.

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
If the government introduce BOC,SLIC,PB etc etc in CSE the ASPI could touch even 10000 in couple of years, (Because ASPI related to Market Capitalisation)

marusira


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI) 12815(2012 NOV 09) 14865(2013 APR10)

S&P 500 Index(US) 1379(2012 NOV 09) 1593(2013 APR 10)

Deutsche Borse AG German Stock Index DAX 7163(2012 NOV 09) 7871(2013 APR 10)

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 21384(2012 NOV 09) 22101(2013 APR 10)

Nikkei 225 8757(2012 NOV 09) 13549(2013 APR 10)

marusira


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@marusira wrote: Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI) 12815(2012 NOV 09) 14865(2013 APR10)

S&P 500 Index(US) 1379(2012 NOV 09) 1593(2013 APR 10)

Deutsche Borse AG German Stock Index DAX 7163(2012 NOV 09) 7871(2013 APR 10)

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 21384(2012 NOV 09) 22101(2013 APR 10)

Nikkei 225 8757(2012 NOV 09) 13549(2013 APR 10)

CSE 5589 (2012 NOV 09) 5813(2013 APR 10)

sahan8896


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Antonym wrote:An average increase of more than 100 points per month is certainly possible, but not probable over extended periods.

I believe that the ASI will have a more gradual rise this time, and will exceed:
6000 by June 2013
7000 during 2014 and
8000 during 2015
.
6000 possible in early May. cheers

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Banking stocks are still cheap and are trading at 6-7X forward PER
Prices will eventually rise to match earnings in the coming quarters

On the other hand rising energy prices and tea sector woes can impact other sectors and can earn less or show no significant rise in earnings.

I also agree with antonym that the growth in the index will be gradual and no sudden bursts.
Retailers will have to be patient

ASPI 6500 by year end is quite possible. Moderation of energy prices, growth in disposable income of the masses and govt snot making haphazard policy decisions is a key for market growth.

Cheers!

zenobia


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
last time, (during 2009-2010) ASI rose due to price rises of most of the shares in CSE and retail activity was very high. this time it is rising due to a few of the banking and other so called "blue chips" and mainly due to big buyers and forigen buyers. retail activity seems very low.
when a few shares like JKH starts their natural decline, it will drag down everything else in the market bringing the prices of other shares down sharply. i dont think that is a very retailer friendly market situation.

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
See the movements of major indices;

Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months? Word_i10

Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months? World_10

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
On world markets you can see that;

- DJI is a close match for S&P
- DAX is also a later version of HSI.
- Nekkei is in up move since October 2012.

11Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months? Empty Can Go either way! Fri Apr 12, 2013 11:00 am

kukumarx


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Govt seems to be committed to 1) Not creating too much money 2)Not borrowing too much from abroad.(at least not directly)

This has led to large govt borrowings locally (to fund the budget, and SOE's i.e.CPC CEB, SiLankan etc) and thus high interest rates.

The electricity price hike ( and possibly further fuel price hikes) will help to somewhat rectify this situation. They will reduce the govt's requirements of funds and thus allow interest rates to go down. Good for the market.

However in the short term these hikes will intensify the slowdown we are facing in the economy- Bad for the market.

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Redbulls wrote:If the government introduce BOC,SLIC,PB etc etc in CSE the ASPI could touch even 10000 in couple of years, (Because ASPI related to Market
Capitalisation)

Are you sure? ASPI not related to mkt Cap. It related to mkt value appreciation from its listed price. No of listing shouldn't have any impact. Ref. ASPI formula available on CSE website

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@Jana1 wrote:
@Redbulls wrote:If the government introduce BOC,SLIC,PB etc etc in CSE the ASPI could touch even 10000 in couple of years, (Because ASPI related to Market
Capitalisation)

Are you sure? ASPI not related to mkt Cap. It related to mkt value appreciation from its listed price. No of listing shouldn't have any impact. Ref. ASPI formula available on CSE website

Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months? Aspi53

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@sriranga wrote:
@Jana1 wrote:
@Redbulls wrote:If the government introduce BOC,SLIC,PB etc etc in CSE the ASPI could touch even 10000 in couple of years, (Because ASPI related to Market
Capitalisation)

Are you sure? ASPI not related to mkt Cap. It related to mkt value appreciation from its listed price. No of listing shouldn't have any impact. Ref. ASPI formula available on CSE website

Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months? Aspi53

@ Sri ranga,
Do u mean ASPI will increase with mkt Cap according the formula? Formula does not clearly mention. Any newly listed firms price should be added with base mkt cap (denominator) and mkt cap (numerator) to nullified the effect.

Base mkt Cap= Opening base mkt cap+ newly listed firms mkt_cap

The base mkt capital is adjusted when companies in the index;

1) are removed or added
2) issue more shares
3) buyback shares
4) spin-off
The index maintainers will ensure that the index figure is exactly the same before and after an adjustment is made in the base capital figure. If the base capital figure weren’t adjusted share indices wouldn’t be a true reflection of how the market has performed.

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@Jana1 wrote:
@sriranga wrote:
@Jana1 wrote:
@Redbulls wrote:If the government introduce BOC,SLIC,PB etc etc in CSE the ASPI could touch even 10000 in couple of years, (Because ASPI related to Market
Capitalisation)

Are you sure? ASPI not related to mkt Cap. It related to mkt value appreciation from its listed price. No of listing shouldn't have any impact. Ref. ASPI formula available on CSE website

Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months? Aspi53

@ Sri ranga,
Do u mean ASPI will increase with mkt Cap according the formula? Formula does not clearly mention. Any newly listed firms price should be added with base mkt cap (denominator) and mkt cap (numerator) to nullified the effect.

Base mkt Cap= Opening base mkt cap+ newly listed firms mkt_cap

The base mkt capital is adjusted when companies in the index;

1) are removed or added
2) issue more shares
3) buyback shares
4) spin-off
The index maintainers will ensure that the index figure is exactly the same before and after an adjustment is made in the base capital figure. If the base capital figure weren’t adjusted share indices wouldn’t be a true reflection of how the market has performed.

ASPI will increase with new listed companies.
Base Market Capitalisation is fixed.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@sriranga wrote:
ASPI will increase with new listed companies.
Base Market Capitalisation is fixed.
No, sriranga - The ASI would not increase automatically when a new company is listed...
Base Market Capitalization is not fixed; it increases when a new company is listed and decreases when a company is de-listed.
I think Jana1 has understood how it works.

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@Antonym wrote:
@sriranga wrote:
ASPI will increase with new listed companies.
Base Market Capitalisation is fixed.
No, sriranga - The ASI would not increase automatically when a new company is listed...
Base Market Capitalization is not fixed; it increases when a new company is listed and decreases when a company is de-listed.
I think Jana1 has understood how it works.

Base Market Capitalisation in CSE is fixed and its related to 1985.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@sriranga wrote:
@Jana1 wrote:
@sriranga wrote:
@Jana1 wrote:
@Redbulls wrote:If the government introduce BOC,SLIC,PB etc etc in CSE the ASPI could touch even 10000 in couple of years, (Because ASPI related to Market
Capitalisation)

Are you sure? ASPI not related to mkt Cap. It related to mkt value appreciation from its listed price. No of listing shouldn't have any impact. Ref. ASPI formula available on CSE website

Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months? Aspi53

@ Sri ranga,
Do u mean ASPI will increase with mkt Cap according the formula? Formula does not clearly mention. Any newly listed firms price should be added with base mkt cap (denominator) and mkt cap (numerator) to nullified the effect.

Base mkt Cap= Opening base mkt cap+ newly listed firms mkt_cap

The base mkt capital is adjusted when companies in the index;

1) are removed or added
2) issue more shares
3) buyback shares
4) spin-off
The index maintainers will ensure that the index figure is exactly the same before and after an adjustment is made in the base capital figure. If the base capital figure weren’t adjusted share indices wouldn’t be a true reflection of how the market has performed.

ASPI will increase with new listed companies.
Base Market Capitalisation is fixed.

How do u know? Does it your view or do you have any facts? Have you ever talked with any1 related to CSE who knows about it?...Smile

If What you said is right, do you remember ASI change when PLC or other high cap shares were listed?

To my knowledge what I said is right. I am pretty confident on what I said. I had this trouble couple of years back then sorted out with one CSE guy.


Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@sriranga wrote:
@Antonym wrote:
@sriranga wrote:
ASPI will increase with new listed companies.
Base Market Capitalisation is fixed.
No, sriranga - The ASI would not increase automatically when a new company is listed...
Base Market Capitalization is not fixed; it increases when a new company is listed and decreases when a company is de-listed.
I think Jana1 has understood how it works.

Base Market Capitalisation in CSE is fixed and its related to 1985.

U confused with opening Base Market Capitalisation. That is not base mkt cap. Chk my equation..

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Jana1: Sometimes, when you know that you're right, it is honorable to just walk away.

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