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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months?

Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months?

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Antonym


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@sriranga wrote:
ASPI will increase with new listed companies.
Base Market Capitalisation is fixed.
No, sriranga - The ASI would not increase automatically when a new company is listed...
Base Market Capitalization is not fixed; it increases when a new company is listed and decreases when a company is de-listed.
I think Jana1 has understood how it works.

sriranga


Co-Admin
@Antonym wrote:
@sriranga wrote:
ASPI will increase with new listed companies.
Base Market Capitalisation is fixed.
No, sriranga - The ASI would not increase automatically when a new company is listed...
Base Market Capitalization is not fixed; it increases when a new company is listed and decreases when a company is de-listed.
I think Jana1 has understood how it works.

Base Market Capitalisation in CSE is fixed and its related to 1985.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@sriranga wrote:
@Jana1 wrote:
@sriranga wrote:
@Jana1 wrote:
@Redbulls wrote:If the government introduce BOC,SLIC,PB etc etc in CSE the ASPI could touch even 10000 in couple of years, (Because ASPI related to Market
Capitalisation)

Are you sure? ASPI not related to mkt Cap. It related to mkt value appreciation from its listed price. No of listing shouldn't have any impact. Ref. ASPI formula available on CSE website

Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months? - Page 2 Aspi53

@ Sri ranga,
Do u mean ASPI will increase with mkt Cap according the formula? Formula does not clearly mention. Any newly listed firms price should be added with base mkt cap (denominator) and mkt cap (numerator) to nullified the effect.

Base mkt Cap= Opening base mkt cap+ newly listed firms mkt_cap

The base mkt capital is adjusted when companies in the index;

1) are removed or added
2) issue more shares
3) buyback shares
4) spin-off
The index maintainers will ensure that the index figure is exactly the same before and after an adjustment is made in the base capital figure. If the base capital figure weren’t adjusted share indices wouldn’t be a true reflection of how the market has performed.

ASPI will increase with new listed companies.
Base Market Capitalisation is fixed.

How do u know? Does it your view or do you have any facts? Have you ever talked with any1 related to CSE who knows about it?...Smile

If What you said is right, do you remember ASI change when PLC or other high cap shares were listed?

To my knowledge what I said is right. I am pretty confident on what I said. I had this trouble couple of years back then sorted out with one CSE guy.


Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@sriranga wrote:
@Antonym wrote:
@sriranga wrote:
ASPI will increase with new listed companies.
Base Market Capitalisation is fixed.
No, sriranga - The ASI would not increase automatically when a new company is listed...
Base Market Capitalization is not fixed; it increases when a new company is listed and decreases when a company is de-listed.
I think Jana1 has understood how it works.

Base Market Capitalisation in CSE is fixed and its related to 1985.

U confused with opening Base Market Capitalisation. That is not base mkt cap. Chk my equation..

Antonym


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Jana1: Sometimes, when you know that you're right, it is honorable to just walk away.

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@Jana1 wrote:
@sriranga wrote:
@Antonym wrote:
@sriranga wrote:
ASPI will increase with new listed companies.
Base Market Capitalisation is fixed.
No, sriranga - The ASI would not increase automatically when a new company is listed...
Base Market Capitalization is not fixed; it increases when a new company is listed and decreases when a company is de-listed.
I think Jana1 has understood how it works.

Base Market Capitalisation in CSE is fixed and its related to 1985.

U confused with opening Base Market Capitalisation. That is not base mkt cap. Chk my equation..

I'm not confused, I'm pretty sure the Base Market Capitalisation is at CSE is related to 1985.

Opening base market capitalisation was calculated then by adding all the market days Capitalisation and divided by the number of market days.

Easy way to understand take 11/09/2012 market capitalisation and then take 12/09/2012 and do the calculation. (Why? GSF was introduced on that day)

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@Antonym wrote:@Jana1: Sometimes, when you know that you're right, it is honorable to just walk away.

Yes and no on your quote.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Antonym wrote:@Jana1: Sometimes, when you know that you're right, it is honorable to just walk away.

Yes, That I know. But for this question I am pretty sure Sriranga's reply was due to confusion- I didn't feel he deliberately criticize me.

@ Sri ranga- again u r wrong. You failed to identify GSF share price appreciation on the listed day. So base denominator contain listed price whilst numerator include (listed price+ share price appreciation on that day). The ASPI change 12/09/2012 was due to share price appreciation of GSF and other cos- not becz of listing..

If ASPI increased on becz of GSF listing then how it became 5585 at 10.45 am on 12/sep/2012? It should have gone up to 5650 early morning. See that day mkt starting ASI- it was nearly 5590 which was previous day close. No improvement at all.

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@Jana1 wrote:
@Antonym wrote:@Jana1: Sometimes, when you know that you're right, it is honorable to just walk away.

Yes, That I know. But for this question I am pretty sure Sriranga's reply was due to confusion- I didn't feel he deliberately criticize me.

@ Sri ranga- again u r wrong. You failed to identify GSF share price appreciation on the listed day. So base denominator contain listed price whilst numerator include (listed price+ share price appreciation on that day). The ASPI change 12/09/2012 was due to share price appreciation of GSF and other cos- not becz of listing..

If ASPI increased on becz of GSF listing then how it became 5585 at 10.45 am on 12/sep/2012? It should have gone up to 5650 early morning. See that day mkt starting ASI- it was nearly 5590 which was previous day close. No improvement at all.

I'm not confused or do not want to confuse anyone.
I'm 100% sure what I mentioned.
Do the calculation with the VWAP on those days. ( If time permit)
Then you can find what I'm trying to say.
As Antonym mentioned, I wish to walk away without any further discussion on this topic.
Have a happy trading.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Index Profile Information for CSEALL
Sri Lanka Stock Market Colombo All-Share Index is a market capitalization weighted index of all the companies listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange. It covers all the traded companies during a market day. The base value is established with average market value as of the year 1985.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CSEALL:IND

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Very interesting ! I think Jana1 and Antonym are right. If you think about it, if the denominator is held constant and only the numerator changes, then ASPI is distorted and does not reflect a true picture. However, Sri Lal has a point in that strictly as per the formula shown, it appears to give the impression that the denominator does not change. but it has to. I think the Formula is shown incorrectly or should be explained with note that base market Cap = Opening market cap + - new listings etc.

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@The Alchemist wrote:Very interesting ! I think Jana1 and Antonym are right. If you think about it, if the denominator is held constant and only the numerator changes, then ASPI is distorted and does not reflect a true picture. However, Sri Lal has a point in that strictly as per the formula shown, it appears to give the impression that the denominator does not change. but it has to. I think the Formula is shown incorrectly or should be explained with note that base market Cap = Opening market cap + - new listings etc.

Base market cap was calculated as per 1985 market capitalisation and kept base vale as 100.

ASPI= (Company1 x Closing Price1+................Companyn x Closing Price n) * 100 / Market Cap as per 1985

As you said that's why allways I'm criticising do not follow the Index and concentrate on the individual stock.

G

G
Stock Trader
@Redbulls wrote:
@The Alchemist wrote:Very interesting ! I think Jana1 and Antonym are right. If you think about it, if the denominator is held constant and only the numerator changes, then ASPI is distorted and does not reflect a true picture. However, Sri Lal has a point in that strictly as per the formula shown, it appears to give the impression that the denominator does not change. but it has to. I think the Formula is shown incorrectly or should be explained with note that base market Cap = Opening market cap + - new listings etc.

Base market cap was calculated as per 1985 market capitalisation and kept base vale as 100.

ASPI= (Company1 x Closing Price1+................Companyn x Closing Price n) * 100 / Market Cap as per 1985

As you said that's why allways I'm criticising do not follow the Index and concentrate on the individual stock.

Guys I think the following would be helpful assuming CSE follows global standards.


Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months? - Page 2 112

Source: http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/nya.shtml

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@G wrote:
@Redbulls wrote:
@The Alchemist wrote:Very interesting ! I think Jana1 and Antonym are right. If you think about it, if the denominator is held constant and only the numerator changes, then ASPI is distorted and does not reflect a true picture. However, Sri Lal has a point in that strictly as per the formula shown, it appears to give the impression that the denominator does not change. but it has to. I think the Formula is shown incorrectly or should be explained with note that base market Cap = Opening market cap + - new listings etc.

Base market cap was calculated as per 1985 market capitalisation and kept base vale as 100.

ASPI= (Company1 x Closing Price1+................Companyn x Closing Price n) * 100 / Market Cap as per 1985

As you said that's why allways I'm criticising do not follow the Index and concentrate on the individual stock.

Guys I think the following would be helpful assuming CSE follows global standards.


Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months? - Page 2 112

Source: http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/nya.shtml

What I said is correct no?
NYSE calculating base date as 31/12/2002.
CSE calculating base year as 1985.

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Very interesting debate going on. But in this calculation I am in dark and do not know how ASI is adjusted during new listings and de listings. But I know our guys know how to manipulate the index very well.

Logically whatever the index (Whether ASI or CPI or any other index) value should not get changed based on new introductions and removals, but on the fluctuation of the price value of the underlying items on the index, including the new item. In case of ASI the underlying stocks, including the new entrants.

So index value should not get changed on delisting’s and listings. I think ASI is compatible with this fact as we know when de listings occurred we haven't seen any drop in ASI in the past.

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Redbulls wrote:
@G wrote:
@Redbulls wrote:
@The Alchemist wrote:Very interesting ! I think Jana1 and Antonym are right. If you think about it, if the denominator is held constant and only the numerator changes, then ASPI is distorted and does not reflect a true picture. However, Sri Lal has a point in that strictly as per the formula shown, it appears to give the impression that the denominator does not change. but it has to. I think the Formula is shown incorrectly or should be explained with note that base market Cap = Opening market cap + - new listings etc.

Base market cap was calculated as per 1985 market capitalisation and kept base vale as 100.

ASPI= (Company1 x Closing Price1+................Companyn x Closing Price n) * 100 / Market Cap as per 1985

As you said that's why allways I'm criticising do not follow the Index and concentrate on the individual stock.
Guys I think the following would be helpful assuming CSE follows global standards.


Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months? - Page 2 112

Source: http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/nya.shtml

What I said is correct no?
NYSE calculating base date as 31/12/2002.
CSE calculating base year as 1985.

@Redbull - According to G post, what you said is not correct. Pls note quote " it is adjusted to eliminate the effects of capitalization changes, new listings and de-listings" unquote.

This means the denominator is adjusted as per what Jana1 and Antonym say.

G

G
Stock Trader
@The Alchemist wrote:
@Redbulls wrote:
@G wrote:
@Redbulls wrote:
@The Alchemist wrote:Very interesting ! I think Jana1 and Antonym are right. If you think about it, if the denominator is held constant and only the numerator changes, then ASPI is distorted and does not reflect a true picture. However, Sri Lal has a point in that strictly as per the formula shown, it appears to give the impression that the denominator does not change. but it has to. I think the Formula is shown incorrectly or should be explained with note that base market Cap = Opening market cap + - new listings etc.

Base market cap was calculated as per 1985 market capitalisation and kept base vale as 100.

ASPI= (Company1 x Closing Price1+................Companyn x Closing Price n) * 100 / Market Cap as per 1985

As you said that's why allways I'm criticising do not follow the Index and concentrate on the individual stock.
Guys I think the following would be helpful assuming CSE follows global standards.


Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months? - Page 2 112

Source: http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/nya.shtml

What I said is correct no?
NYSE calculating base date as 31/12/2002.
CSE calculating base year as 1985.

@Redbull - According to G post, what you said is not correct. Pls note quote " it is adjusted to eliminate the effects of capitalization changes, new listings and de-listings" unquote.

This means the denominator is adjusted as per what Jana1 and Antonym say.

Yes Alchemist, that's what I wanted to point out.

Dear Redbull, read the part which is highlighted in blue color.

(Anyway I have assumed CSE follows this standard. There was no documentation that I could find on CSE website)

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@G wrote:
@The Alchemist wrote:
@Redbulls wrote:
@G wrote:
@Redbulls wrote:
@The Alchemist wrote:Very interesting ! I think Jana1 and Antonym are right. If you think about it, if the denominator is held constant and only the numerator changes, then ASPI is distorted and does not reflect a true picture. However, Sri Lal has a point in that strictly as per the formula shown, it appears to give the impression that the denominator does not change. but it has to. I think the Formula is shown incorrectly or should be explained with note that base market Cap = Opening market cap + - new listings etc.

Base market cap was calculated as per 1985 market capitalisation and kept base vale as 100.

ASPI= (Company1 x Closing Price1+................Companyn x Closing Price n) * 100 / Market Cap as per 1985

As you said that's why allways I'm criticising do not follow the Index and concentrate on the individual stock.
Guys I think the following would be helpful assuming CSE follows global standards.


Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months? - Page 2 112

Source: http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/nya.shtml

What I said is correct no?
NYSE calculating base date as 31/12/2002.
CSE calculating base year as 1985.

@Redbull - According to G post, what you said is not correct. Pls note quote " it is adjusted to eliminate the effects of capitalization changes, new listings and de-listings" unquote.

This means the denominator is adjusted as per what Jana1 and Antonym say.

Yes Alchemist, that's what I wanted to point out.

Dear Redbull, read the part which is highlighted in blue color.

(Anyway I have assumed CSE follows this standard. There was no documentation that I could find on CSE website)


High lighted area is not related to the denominator that will suit for the numerator.
Numerator of the equation will change with listing or delisting and price variation.
Denominator is fixed and it is calculated with the average Market cap of 1985. ( around 110 companies at that time)

Could anyone give some examples that denominator is changing for each and every listing or delisting at CSE?

Take a calculator and do the calculation for ASPI change and Mar.Cap change, you will find the same result, that means the denominator is constant.

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
RB you are wrong and Jana1,Antonym,G,and The Alchemist are correct.

Base Market capitalisation is change due to Bonus, Rights, Listing, Delisting even in heavy dividend payout.
As a trader / Investor I accept my mistake on my previous comments made. Sincerely thanking all of you to open my eyes and educate on this issue.

My sincere apologies to all, regarding previous comments made by me.

Thanking you all in anticipation to accept my apology.

I hope may be the following method CSE is all so using. I sent an request to CSE and waiting for their clarification.

Can ASI reach or exceed 8000 within next 12-15 months? - Page 2 Base10

Again thanks you all and have a happy New year.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

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Stocks, Bills and Inflation in Sri Lanka

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