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Is it safe to be with plantations?

5 posters

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1Is it safe to be with plantations? Empty Is it safe to be with plantations? Tue Apr 16, 2013 11:30 pm

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Plantation companies managed to pass a big hurdle last month. The "Wages" negotiations were settled without much trouble this time. Three years back, negotiations were dragged for 3-4 months giving huge negative publicity and much burdens to the investing community and the companies.

But now there seem to be another risk looming. For some time, there was much talk about a burst in commodity markets. There were gradual adjustments in commodities during last six months. But last few days we saw the burst happening. Gold prices were plummeted by about 14% within couple of days. Crude oil followed the trend by losing about 6% within three days.

Will this be a short term adjustment?

Or

Is it actually the start of the burst?


How this will affect our two main commodities? Tea and Rubber.

Rubber prices are always aligned with crude oil prices. If you study the past price charts for rubber and oil, both carry the same pattern. Still rubber prices are intact in the world markets. But will it follow the history?

Tea is indirectly following crude oil prices as major tea buyers are oil producing nations.


2Is it safe to be with plantations? Empty Re: Is it safe to be with plantations? Tue Apr 16, 2013 11:57 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Gold price is not highly effect. we are not producing gold or crude oil. it can be fall down that is good for our country.
I know USA making artificial rubber using Crude-oil(I think). that's why its rubber highly related with crude-oil.

if crude oil price going future down. sri lankan import volume is going down then rupee can stable and also inflation also go down. then slowly bank interest rate go down.
CSE can be more attract with low interest rate. that is good for CSE.

sri lanka should think about to export finishing products rather than bulk raw materials. Ex (tea bags, different type of tea(lemon with tea,mint tea....)
and also rubber should export with finishing product.

plantation sector should scared any environment change(nature victim) & working employees problems(strikes) at the moment tea has good demand on world market.

I am open to listen others ideas. rather than promoters.

3Is it safe to be with plantations? Empty Re: Is it safe to be with plantations? Wed Apr 17, 2013 3:40 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Actually it is worth to note rubber prices are already in the lower/lowest range for the period considering the last 3 years. Further drop ( if that is going to happen can lead to a crash). Thinking oil price pressures might ease.

4Is it safe to be with plantations? Empty Re: Is it safe to be with plantations? Wed Apr 17, 2013 8:08 pm

Mubaaracq Meerasahib


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

What would say about "Malwatte Velly Plantation" as I collected at Rs 5.00 long before. Holding for times upon my price or selling for mitigating loss ?

5Is it safe to be with plantations? Empty Re: Is it safe to be with plantations? Wed Apr 17, 2013 8:26 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Last year MAL was the most undervalued share in the sector. But now, there are several shares which has similar or better valuations. TPL, HOPL comes to mind.

However MAL has some rubber and other crops for diversity. If there is a plantation run , mal can easily run to Rs 5 again.



Mubaaracq Meerasahib wrote:What would say about "Malwatte Velly Plantation" as I collected at Rs 5.00 long before. Holding for times upon my price or selling for mitigating loss ?

6Is it safe to be with plantations? Empty Re: Is it safe to be with plantations? Wed Apr 17, 2013 10:21 pm

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Today's Auction


Rubber prices as at 2013-04-17 00:00:00

Type Price Range Average Price Rs./Kg.
Latex Crepe No.1X unq - unq unq
Latex Crepe No.1 unq - unq unq
Latex Crepe No.2 unq - unq unq
Latex Crepe No.3 unq - unq unq
Latex Crepe No.4 unq - unq unq
Scrap Crepe (Brown) No.1 unq - unq unq
Scrap Crepe (Brown) No.2 unq - unq unq
Scrap Crepe (Brown) No.3 unq - unq unq
Scrap Crepe (Brown) No.4 unq - unq unq
Flat Bark unq - unq unq
Skim Crepe unq - unq unq
Ribbed Smoked Sheet No.1 unq - unq unq
Ribbed Smoked Sheet No.2 unq - unq unq
Ribbed Smoked Sheet No.3 unq - unq unq
Ribbed Smoked Sheet No.4 unq - unq unq
Ribbed Smoked Sheet No.5 unq - unq unq


Looking for direction............?

7Is it safe to be with plantations? Empty Re: Is it safe to be with plantations? Wed Apr 17, 2013 10:25 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=rubber

Yes, rubber is coming down, which is a concern
High prices are always good
You have to watch it
Yet , value is there if you go by selectively

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