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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Sri Lanka power tariffs raised

Sri Lanka power tariffs raised

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1Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Empty Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Wed Apr 17, 2013 5:11 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
Apr 17, 2013 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's power regulator has approved a tariff request by state-run Ceylon Electricity Board denying a request to reduce tariffs of large domestic users, after earlier cutting of 40 billion rupees in estimated costs.

Under the new tariffs a proposal to charge domestic users by the highest rated block instead of differently priced slabs, which ran into stiff opposition at a public hearing had also been approved.

Low user, domestic users had been the most highly subsidized users along with religions categories, industry and government offices.

Low users up to 30 units will see their bill going up by 75 rupees to 311 rupees, users of up to 60 units will see their bill go up by 174 rupees to 546 rupees.

Users of up to 90 units will see their bill go up by up to 432 rupees and users of up to 120 units will see their bill go up by about 1000 rupees to 2,800.

Due the ending of slabs, those who exceed thresholds such as 90 will see a 1,000 rupee increase when they reach 91 units.

The regulator denied a request by the CEB to reduce the tariff of large domestic users to 32 rupees above 900 units a month to 32 rupees and has maintained a rate of 34 plus 40 percent fuel surcharge.

High user domestic tariffs at around 44 rupees a unit with the fuel surcharge are more than twice the average cost of 20 rupees a unit.

Other tariff requests to general purpose, government, religious and industry had been approved as submitted. Large users have been given time of day tariffs with high charges for the evening peak.

The CEB is expecting to get revenues of 223 billion rupees from the price hike, or 45 billion rupees more than the earlier tariff and still make a 33 billion rupees loss in 2013 on total expenses of 256 billion rupees.

The regulator only allowed 228 billion rupees of costs to be recovered from customers, after dis-allowing 40 billion rupees of filed expenses by the CEB.

Last year the CEB lost 61.2 billion rupees and the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation which supplied fuel below cost 89.7 billion rupees. CPC is expected to raise furnace oil by around 50 percent from April.

The regulator has imposed a series of conditions on the CEB including installing dispatch planning software, setting up a bulk supply account, providing power purchase agreements with generators and striking long and medium contracts for coal.

Update II

Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Power-10
Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Power-11
http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/news/Sri_Lanka_power_tariffs_raised/810023884



Last edited by sriranga on Wed Apr 17, 2013 7:24 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Update II)

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

2Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Empty Re: Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Wed Apr 17, 2013 6:11 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
So 1 unit extra from 90 ( to 91) will make a massive jump.
Same with 180 to 181.

Fantastic. Great thinking of the bright people to screw up the medium class.

3Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Empty Re: Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Wed Apr 17, 2013 6:56 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
Sad



Last edited by hunter on Wed Apr 17, 2013 7:32 pm; edited 1 time in total

4Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Empty Re: Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Wed Apr 17, 2013 7:03 pm

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
High electricity consuming industries like ceramics, cement, glass industries are going to effect from the tariff hike. Hotel industries also will effect marginally.

5Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Empty Re: Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Wed Apr 17, 2013 7:04 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Does anyone remember the difference in costs between old scheme and new scheme for industries.


@Monster wrote:High electricity consuming industries like ceramics, cement, glass industries are going to effect from the tariff hike. Hotel industries also will effect marginally.

6Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Empty Re: Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Wed Apr 17, 2013 7:44 pm

Monster

Monster
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Does anyone remember the difference in costs between old scheme and new scheme for industries.


@Monster wrote:High electricity consuming industries like ceramics, cement, glass industries are going to effect from the tariff hike. Hotel industries also will effect marginally.

OLD TARIFF - INDUSTRIES
Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Indust10

OLD TARIFF - HOTELS
Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Hotel10

NEW TARIFF

Sri Lanka power tariffs raised New10

7Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Empty Re: Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Wed Apr 17, 2013 7:45 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
Thanks a lot Monster.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

8Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Empty Re: Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Wed Apr 17, 2013 7:53 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
VEry useful monster. Thanks.

During day

Industry 1 : jump about 20%
Industry 2 : jump about 10%
Industry 3 : almost no change

For industries 2 & 3 if they can run offpeak they possibly can save?

No sure how the demand charge is used and which companies fall into Ind 1 , 2 ,3 .

Might be a worthwhile research.

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
It is frequently assumed that the subject of economics is chiefly concerned with the movement of money. This is incorrect. The main preoccupation in economics is how people make choices. The key to understanding and guiding an economy is this distillation and aggregation of individual choices.

Here is something flabbergasting that arises from applying an economic understanding of how choices are made to the proposed new electricity tariffs in Sri Lanka in April 2013. The new electricity tariffs will make people feel poorer and also encourage them to consume more electricity. It is also partly self-defeating. The explanation is rather simple.


Two impacts on consumption: Income and price
Two things matter in the choices that a person makes to consume. The total income power of that person (called the ‘income effect’) and the relative price of what they aim to consume (called the ‘substitution effect’). This is quite intuitive: In simple terms, it means, you tend to consume more when you feel richer and you tend to consume more of something when it becomes cheaper.


Two kinds of prices: Average and marginal
The concept of cheaper can be thought of in two ways. Only one of them really matters. One way to think about cheaper is to think about the ‘average cost’ of the consumption. The other way is to think of the ‘marginal cost’.
What is meant by ‘marginal cost’ is simply the cost of the last extra unit of consumption. It is the ‘marginal cost’ that mostly matters and in the absence of proper substitutes for essential items, the marginal cost may be the only thing that matters.

Sri Lanka power tariffs raised 15710

Quantity is determined by the marginal
Let’s take an example. Petrol is priced higher than diesel in Sri Lanka. As a result, owners of petrol vehicles pay more for every kilometer of running than owners of diesel vehicles. To compensate for this indirect subsidy, family-owned diesel vehicles are subject to a hefty annual tax.
As a result, when the total tax plus fuel price is added up, it could very well be the case that ‘on average’ the diesel vehicle owner pays more per kilometer. But when it comes to deciding on whether it would be a good idea to nip down to Galle and back on a poya holiday, it is also the diesel vehicle owner that is more likely to choose it. That is because the cost per kilometer for that extra running is very much less than for the petrol vehicle owner and it is that ‘marginal cost’ that determines the choice of ‘how much’ to run.

Bygones are bygones
High fixed costs that increase the average cost of consumption are what economists call ‘sunk costs’. They don’t determine choices after that cost is paid.

High fixed costs can affect a person’s disposable income and with that their sense of being richer or poorer. This ‘income effect’ would lead to consuming less in general of everything and looking for cheaper substitutes of those things that are being consumed. In our example, the hefty tax paid by the diesel vehicle owner is a fixed sunk cost.

The resulting ‘income effect’ (making him feel poorer) could lead him to look for less expensive hotels in Galle, but it will not discourage him from travelling itself (because for the travel cost, he already has the cheaper substitute).
In fact, the ‘the buffet effect’ could kick in and cause him to travel even excessively more to psychologically justify the high tax already paid! (Don’t people often eat too much at buffets where the fixed and average cost is high, but the marginal cost of extra food is zero?)

Sri Lanka power tariffs raised 20110

It’s same with electricity
This logic applies to consumption of electricity as well and even more so, because what substitute does a home have for electricity? The poorest, without refrigerators, could switch to kerosene lamps (but the price of kerosene has also skyrocketed recently).
The new tariff structure proposed by the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) significantly ‘increases’ the average price of electricity and the increase is much greater for those that consume less. But in a befuddling twist, it changes the structure of pricing so as to ‘decrease’ the marginal price and especially for those who consume more.


Graph tells the story
The graph looks complicated but is simple to understand. It shows the extra cost a person has to pay for a single extra unit of electricity at various levels of consumption. It shows this both under the existing tariff structure and the proposed tariff structure.
This is what the graph says: The proposed tariff imposes a much higher marginal cost than at present on the first 30 units of consumption: A 66 percent increase. And, less, but still, an increase in marginal cost up to the first 90 units (28 percent and 13 percent, see the table for the numbers).

After that, the proposed tariff structure actually ‘decreases’ the marginal cost for every category, including the highest consumers. The greatest reduction is for those consuming between 90 and 120 units (a 29 percent reduction) and those consuming between 180 and 210 units (a 33 percent reduction).

So, here is what the new electricity tariff is going to do. It is going to make people feel poorer and also induce them consume more electricity, thereby forcing reductions in everything else like food and newspapers.


Economics not accounts
Typically, an accounting approach can focus on pricing that is geared to recover costs. The new tariff structure is projected by the CEB to change the total revenue from the domestic sector from what was previously a very large subsidy of 39 percent to a small profit of about 2 percent (based on costs). That is a big shift. But the approach to pricing is wrong-headed and self-defeating.

Why? First, those at the low end of consumption, where marginal costs are increased, will have the least ability to reduce consumption. Those at the high end of consumption where greater vigilance could substantially reduce consumption are being encouraged to consume more through lower marginal costs.

Second, it is also the last units of electricity that cost the CEB the most. Hydropower for instance costs less than about Rs.5 per unit to produce. Coal power costs only a little bit more. Given the average cost in excess of 20, it means that the extra units purchased from Independent Power Producers could be costing the CEB well in excess of Rs.30 (some unconfirmed estimates place it at above Rs.60).

This means that those consuming between 92 and 210 units that are now being encouraged to consume more by the new tariff structure could in fact be paying less for that extra consumption, than it costs the CEB to source that extra power to them.

There is more to be done for a comprehensive analysis. But the insight is important. The structure of the problem is better represented from an economics rather than purely accounting approach. This is why the proposal for the new electricity tariffs would have benefited by some tête-à-tête with economists. Maybe it is not too late.

(Verite Research provides strategic analysis and advice for government and the private sector in Asia)
http://www.dailymirror.lk/business/features/28214-new-electricity-tariffs-cost-wise-price-foolish.html

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

10Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Empty New Electricity Tariffs Calculator Wed Apr 17, 2013 8:44 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
Sri Lanka power tariffs raised 1361315087billnewww
http://adaderana.lk/news.php?nid=22373&mode=beauti

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

11Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Empty Re: Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Wed Apr 17, 2013 9:45 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Frequent sterile solution & oxygen have been given, at the expense of overburdened people over years & years. Recovery of paralyzed patient is very remote with medication prescribed. Non diagnosing the causes for gradual paralyzing keep changed the prescription until the last breath. Eventually no one identifies the dead one.

12Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Empty Re: Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Thu Apr 18, 2013 1:40 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Fantastic. Users below 200 unts ( middle class) have to pay upto 100% increase. While for the high energy consumers ( the rich ) no change.

A person who cna afford Rs 40000 electricity bill possibly can afford Rs 60000 . But there is no change.

A person who was a biull At Rs 1000+ jump to Rs 2000+ becasue he/she consumed 1 unit extra ( 90 to 91)

Rob the poor and feed the rich right.

Seriously, I feel sick with these people who think these things and these commisions who study 100s of reports and do nothing.


@sriranga wrote:



Last edited by slstock on Thu Apr 18, 2013 9:28 am; edited 1 time in total

13Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Empty Re: Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Thu Apr 18, 2013 6:55 am

Kithsiri

Kithsiri
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Sri Lankan Robin Hood in Sherwood Hambantota . Embarassed

@slstock wrote:Rob the poor and feed the rich right. Shocked
Seriously, I feel sick with these people who think these things and these commisions who study 100s of reports and do nothing.

14Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Empty Re: Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Thu Apr 18, 2013 10:22 am

stockmania

stockmania
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Now most of the people will think to maintain their light bill not to exceed 90 units. This will give people good motivation to save electricity.

If CEB need to recover losses, CEB should target a large audience. I think most people are are using below 90 units. Then according to my point of view this is correct.

15Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Empty Re: Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Thu Apr 18, 2013 12:06 pm

gamaya


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
This is the rajapaksa way of
1.eliminating the poor
2.encouraging people to get more rich and live in a AC house with no price hike.

16Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Empty Re: Sri Lanka power tariffs raised Thu Apr 18, 2013 12:11 pm

wiki


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@stockmania wrote:Now most of the people will think to maintain their light bill not to exceed 90 units. This will give people good motivation to save electricity.

If CEB need to recover losses, CEB should target a large audience. I think most people are are using below 90 units. Then according to my point of view this is correct.

Trying to profit by reducing sale.. wonder inst it Very Happy

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