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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » 2013 Stock Market Set To Break 2011 Record Highs

2013 Stock Market Set To Break 2011 Record Highs

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LSE

LSE
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
What You Think... Question Question Question

2013 Stock Market Set To Break 2011 Record Highs 9-23-110

Question :
Will it break 2011 Record Highs before December 2013...?

Answer :
Yes or No

Please Comment...

Thank You.
cheers cheers cheers

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Break 7800 in 2013 Dec? I hope not as I do not want another bubble.

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I thk reaching previous high after 2 years cannot be count as bubble. If real bull run starts it mostly go beyond its previous high.. (ref. world mkts)

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
So you except 30% ASI rise before Dec 2013 ( in 7 months) ? Would not that be too fast rise blowing up some share beyond valuations.

Gradual increase will be better.



@Jana1 wrote:I thk reaching previous high after 2 years cannot be count as bubble. If real bull run starts it mostly go beyond its previous high.. (ref. world mkts)

Kithsiri

Kithsiri
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
No. Cool

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Jana1 wrote:I thk reaching previous high after 2 years cannot be count as bubble. If real bull run starts it mostly go beyond its previous high.. (ref. world mkts)

Agree with your view. Now there is lot of shares with high capitalization and are trading 50% below their fair valuations. If these shares reach their fair value index will reach 8000 level. This is not a bubble.

Last time when index reached 6000 it couldn't sustain and dropped to 5300s. These types of reversals we cannot say bubble bursts. So there can be reversals. But it is highly likely for the index to reach 8000 before next 12 to 15 months.

Big drops are happening in CSE because there are very few actual investors. More than 90% are actually traders. If we look at this forum clearly all are traders. If we can improve the investor base, market can sustain.


sahan8896


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
It's not valid to compare all time high because CARS and BUKI moved market up to that level.Actual high should be just above 7000 know?If we can reach 7000 without the help of one or too big moves from high caps it'll be great.First should stable above 6000.

LSE

LSE
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@hariesha wrote:
@Jana1 wrote:I thk reaching previous high after 2 years cannot be count as bubble. If real bull run starts it mostly go beyond its previous high.. (ref. world mkts)

Agree with your view. Now there is lot of shares with high capitalization and are trading 50% below their fair valuations. If these shares reach their fair value index will reach 8000 level. This is not a bubble.

Last time when index reached 6000 it couldn't sustain and dropped to 5300s. These types of reversals we cannot say bubble bursts. So there can be reversals. But it is highly likely for the index to reach 8000 before next 12 to 15 months.

Big drops are happening in CSE because there are very few actual investors. More than 90% are actually traders. If we look at this forum clearly all are traders. If we can improve the investor base, market can sustain.



100% agree with you hariesha & jana. Very Happy

NZ BOY

NZ BOY
Moderator
Moderator
100% yes we r very confident

Kithsiri

Kithsiri
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@hariesha wrote: in CSE because there are very few actual investors. More than 90% are actually traders. If we look at this forum clearly all are traders. If we can improve the investor base, market can sustain.
How ?
Can you shed more light on this issue please?
Having more investors will not make the market sluggish ?

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:So you except 30% ASI rise before Dec 2013 ( in 7 months) ? Would not that be too fast rise blowing up some share beyond valuations.

Gradual increase will be better.



@Jana1 wrote:I thk reaching previous high after 2 years cannot be count as bubble. If real bull run starts it mostly go beyond its previous high.. (ref. world mkts)

Have u ever dreamed during 2007-8 when ASI was 850 would hit 7800 in just three years (2011)?? During 2009 just I was sitting in my broker office and thinking when this mkt would turn around.. Still I remember those days with much credit with no confident , I was about to slaughtered. One day rally was started every1 was saying it will bounce back.. but the circumstance was different.. Who sold DIMO at 200 at that time bought it again at 1400 level after 2 years...Even I knw friends who bought Abans at 35 level and got exit about 330 level..

For me 30% up is possible. Very high chance in CSE becz this is small frontier mkt. But I prefer one drop 200-300 point at 6800-7100 level. If it happen then the rally of breaking 7800 is inevitable..

LSE

LSE
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Jana1 wrote:
@slstock wrote:So you except 30% ASI rise before Dec 2013 ( in 7 months) ? Would not that be too fast rise blowing up some share beyond valuations.

Gradual increase will be better.



@Jana1 wrote:I thk reaching previous high after 2 years cannot be count as bubble. If real bull run starts it mostly go beyond its previous high.. (ref. world mkts)

Have u ever dreamed during 2007-8 when ASI was 850 would hit 7800 in just three years (2011)?? During 2009 just I was sitting in my broker office and thinking when this mkt would turn around.. Still I remember those days with much credit with no confident , I was about to slaughtered. One day rally was started every1 was saying it will bounce back.. but the circumstance was different.. Who sold DIMO at 200 at that time bought it again at 1400 level after 2 years...Even I knw friends who bought Abans at 35 level and got exit about 330 level..

For me 30% up is possible. Very high chance in CSE becz this is small frontier mkt. But I prefer one drop 200-300 point at 6800-7100 level. If it happen then the rally of breaking 7800 is inevitable..

Well said Jana... cheers
Market is gearing up.. All the parties are still waiting... As you all know what we've learn by our experience withing the past years... when it's come down it's falling like nothing... also keep in your mind.. opposite is also the same.. when it's going up.. it'll rocketing like nothing...

Big days are coming soon...

cheers cheers cheers

sahan8896


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@LSE wrote:
@Jana1 wrote:
@slstock wrote:So you except 30% ASI rise before Dec 2013 ( in 7 months) ? Would not that be too fast rise blowing up some share beyond valuations.

Gradual increase will be better.



@Jana1 wrote:I thk reaching previous high after 2 years cannot be count as bubble. If real bull run starts it mostly go beyond its previous high.. (ref. world mkts)

Have u ever dreamed during 2007-8 when ASI was 850 would hit 7800 in just three years (2011)?? During 2009 just I was sitting in my broker office and thinking when this mkt would turn around.. Still I remember those days with much credit with no confident , I was about to slaughtered. One day rally was started every1 was saying it will bounce back.. but the circumstance was different.. Who sold DIMO at 200 at that time bought it again at 1400 level after 2 years...Even I knw friends who bought Abans at 35 level and got exit about 330 level..

For me 30% up is possible. Very high chance in CSE becz this is small frontier mkt. But I prefer one drop 200-300 point at 6800-7100 level. If it happen then the rally of breaking 7800 is inevitable..

Well said Jana... cheers
Market is gearing up.. All the parties are still waiting... As you all know what we've learn by our experience withing the past years... when it's come down it's falling like nothing... also keep in your mind.. opposite is also the same.. when it's going up.. it'll rocketing like nothing...

Big days are coming soon...

cheers cheers cheers
LSE, like your possitive attitude. alien alien

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Anything is possible at CSE.

But if it goes 30% up by 2013 dec, it will be not healthy for the market and can create a bubble for another major correction which will start a new cycles of woes. That is my worry.

Wonder at ASi 7800 what will be the valuation of JKH,NEST,CTC, CARG, LION

Bottom line, can it hit 7800 yes. Even 8500. Will it hit ? I hope not . Hope it settle between 6500-7000 this year for a sustainable market

But if it hit 7800 i have no objection. But I will be on my toes to figure out which way market runs after that.


CSE runs on extremes. With a Bull people will run crazy chasing shares. When bear they will sell crazy to absurd valued like June 2012 or durign last stage of war.


@Jana1 wrote:
@slstock wrote:So you except 30% ASI rise before Dec 2013 ( in 7 months) ? Would not that be too fast rise blowing up some share beyond valuations.

Gradual increase will be better.



@Jana1 wrote:I thk reaching previous high after 2 years cannot be count as bubble. If real bull run starts it mostly go beyond its previous high.. (ref. world mkts)

Have u ever dreamed during 2007-8 when ASI was 850 would hit 7800 in just three years (2011)?? During 2009 just I was sitting in my broker office and thinking when this mkt would turn around.. Still I remember those days with much credit with no confident , I was about to slaughtered. One day rally was started every1 was saying it will bounce back.. but the circumstance was different.. Who sold DIMO at 200 at that time bought it again at 1400 level after 2 years...Even I knw friends who bought Abans at 35 level and got exit about 330 level..

For me 30% up is possible. Very high chance in CSE becz this is small frontier mkt. But I prefer one drop 200-300 point at 6800-7100 level. If it happen then the rally of breaking 7800 is inevitable..



Last edited by slstock on Sun Apr 28, 2013 11:59 am; edited 1 time in total

jaya


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I believe Market will reach 6800 level by few months time with some red days, when it reach that level Foreign buying can be reduced and mid cap and penny stock head the rally by the retail traders to another 500 points, hoping
Stable rise for the market is 20 % per year

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
2013 Stock Market Set To Break 2011 Record Highs මාස දෙක තුනක් වත් කලින් ලන්ඩන් වලින් මෙහෙ ඇවිල්ල ඕක කිව්වා නම් අපිට අඩුවට එකතු කර ගන්න තිබුන Wink

By the way, I am not against the idea. sunny


@hariesha wrote:Last time when index reached 6000 it couldn't sustain and dropped to 5300s. These types of reversals we cannot say bubble bursts.

There is a big misconception , misinterpretation and misuse of this "bubble" term in Sri lanka. From the beginning of the decline we argued that there was no bubble. Our famous Dr. Bubble and some others thought otherwise.

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Anything is possible at CSE.

But if it goes 30% up by 2013 dec, it will be not healthy for the market and can create a bubble for another major correction which will start a new cycles of woes. That is my worry.

Wonder at ASi 7800 what will be the valuation of JKH,NEST,CTC, CARG, LION

Bottom line, can it hit 7800 yes. Even 8500. Will it hit ? I hope not . Hope it settle between 6500-7000 this year for a sustainable market

But if it hit 7800 i have no objection. But I will be on my toes to figure out which way market runs after that.


CSE runs on extremes. With a Bull people will run crazy chasing shares. When bear they will sell crazy to absurd valued like June 2012 or durign last stage of war.


@Jana1 wrote:
@slstock wrote:So you except 30% ASI rise before Dec 2013 ( in 7 months) ? Would not that be too fast rise blowing up some share beyond valuations.

Gradual increase will be better.



@Jana1 wrote:I thk reaching previous high after 2 years cannot be count as bubble. If real bull run starts it mostly go beyond its previous high.. (ref. world mkts)

Have u ever dreamed during 2007-8 when ASI was 850 would hit 7800 in just three years (2011)?? During 2009 just I was sitting in my broker office and thinking when this mkt would turn around.. Still I remember those days with much credit with no confident , I was about to slaughtered. One day rally was started every1 was saying it will bounce back.. but the circumstance was different.. Who sold DIMO at 200 at that time bought it again at 1400 level after 2 years...Even I knw friends who bought Abans at 35 level and got exit about 330 level..

For me 30% up is possible. Very high chance in CSE becz this is small frontier mkt. But I prefer one drop 200-300 point at 6800-7100 level. If it happen then the rally of breaking 7800 is inevitable..

@ slstock. If it hits 6500-7000 in 2 months time then possibility of hitting 8000 from 7000 is much higher. Becz people get more confident at 7000 level and simply join in the rally. 4800-5800 pretty difficult becz no confident, 5800-6800 is possible becz little bit confident. 5800-6800 is possible then the chance of hitting 6800-7800 is almost double the possibility of 5800-6800. That is my understanding. We will have rest 5 months to reach 7800 from 6800 and this rally would be very aggressive along with manipulators and traders. People blindly follow, then no more room for so called fundamentals and valuations.. SL's big days are ahead but not sure when...

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
As far as I understand the term "stock market bubble " it means a situation where the indices reach very high levels without any fundamental backing such as GDP growth, performance of listed companies and othe micro/macro-economic indicators.

What happened after the war was heavy expectations of growth couplled with pouring of black money and improvement of GDP growth etc which led the indices to reach unpresidented levels. Un-controlled margin accounts too increased the momentum creating a bubble like situation.

A situation where indices reach such high levels with substantial growth in GDP & performance of companies cannot be identified as a bubble. Its a healhy & solid growth situation of indices.

However, every high level of indices either bubble or not, is marked by selling preassure which is natural in a market.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
To me ( not technical definitions) a bubble is when stock market prices keep increasing to a certain high level while the growth of the companies does not go in parallel to justify its prices in the forseeable future.

Example : do you remember GREG at RS 250, REEF at Rs 100 and even DFCC at Rs 550, LOLC at Rs 1500 etc and most of market share being over PE of 20 and book value of 3.

Ofcourse this is all relative if we take individual stocks. At any given point of time certain stocks will be overvalued compared to sector/market and some undervalurd to the same. They might still have room to grow depedning on interest ( look at LION or JKH)

On the other hand an overall market correction or run can push any share respectively eitherway.

Jana

Jana
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
No... If it is no then market Health is ok to 2014.. Otherwise if break ... we have to wait for another two years to see the bull

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