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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » 2013 Stock Market Set To Break 2011 Record Highs

2013 Stock Market Set To Break 2011 Record Highs

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Chinwi


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
2013 Stock Market Set To Break 2011 Record Highs මාස දෙක තුනක් වත් කලින් ලන්ඩන් වලින් මෙහෙ ඇවිල්ල ඕක කිව්වා නම් අපිට අඩුවට එකතු කර ගන්න තිබුන Wink

By the way, I am not against the idea. sunny


@hariesha wrote:Last time when index reached 6000 it couldn't sustain and dropped to 5300s. These types of reversals we cannot say bubble bursts.

There is a big misconception , misinterpretation and misuse of this "bubble" term in Sri lanka. From the beginning of the decline we argued that there was no bubble. Our famous Dr. Bubble and some others thought otherwise.

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Anything is possible at CSE.

But if it goes 30% up by 2013 dec, it will be not healthy for the market and can create a bubble for another major correction which will start a new cycles of woes. That is my worry.

Wonder at ASi 7800 what will be the valuation of JKH,NEST,CTC, CARG, LION

Bottom line, can it hit 7800 yes. Even 8500. Will it hit ? I hope not . Hope it settle between 6500-7000 this year for a sustainable market

But if it hit 7800 i have no objection. But I will be on my toes to figure out which way market runs after that.


CSE runs on extremes. With a Bull people will run crazy chasing shares. When bear they will sell crazy to absurd valued like June 2012 or durign last stage of war.


@Jana1 wrote:
@slstock wrote:So you except 30% ASI rise before Dec 2013 ( in 7 months) ? Would not that be too fast rise blowing up some share beyond valuations.

Gradual increase will be better.



@Jana1 wrote:I thk reaching previous high after 2 years cannot be count as bubble. If real bull run starts it mostly go beyond its previous high.. (ref. world mkts)

Have u ever dreamed during 2007-8 when ASI was 850 would hit 7800 in just three years (2011)?? During 2009 just I was sitting in my broker office and thinking when this mkt would turn around.. Still I remember those days with much credit with no confident , I was about to slaughtered. One day rally was started every1 was saying it will bounce back.. but the circumstance was different.. Who sold DIMO at 200 at that time bought it again at 1400 level after 2 years...Even I knw friends who bought Abans at 35 level and got exit about 330 level..

For me 30% up is possible. Very high chance in CSE becz this is small frontier mkt. But I prefer one drop 200-300 point at 6800-7100 level. If it happen then the rally of breaking 7800 is inevitable..

@ slstock. If it hits 6500-7000 in 2 months time then possibility of hitting 8000 from 7000 is much higher. Becz people get more confident at 7000 level and simply join in the rally. 4800-5800 pretty difficult becz no confident, 5800-6800 is possible becz little bit confident. 5800-6800 is possible then the chance of hitting 6800-7800 is almost double the possibility of 5800-6800. That is my understanding. We will have rest 5 months to reach 7800 from 6800 and this rally would be very aggressive along with manipulators and traders. People blindly follow, then no more room for so called fundamentals and valuations.. SL's big days are ahead but not sure when...

K.Haputantri


Co-Admin
As far as I understand the term "stock market bubble " it means a situation where the indices reach very high levels without any fundamental backing such as GDP growth, performance of listed companies and othe micro/macro-economic indicators.

What happened after the war was heavy expectations of growth couplled with pouring of black money and improvement of GDP growth etc which led the indices to reach unpresidented levels. Un-controlled margin accounts too increased the momentum creating a bubble like situation.

A situation where indices reach such high levels with substantial growth in GDP & performance of companies cannot be identified as a bubble. Its a healhy & solid growth situation of indices.

However, every high level of indices either bubble or not, is marked by selling preassure which is natural in a market.

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
To me ( not technical definitions) a bubble is when stock market prices keep increasing to a certain high level while the growth of the companies does not go in parallel to justify its prices in the forseeable future.

Example : do you remember GREG at RS 250, REEF at Rs 100 and even DFCC at Rs 550, LOLC at Rs 1500 etc and most of market share being over PE of 20 and book value of 3.

Ofcourse this is all relative if we take individual stocks. At any given point of time certain stocks will be overvalued compared to sector/market and some undervalurd to the same. They might still have room to grow depedning on interest ( look at LION or JKH)

On the other hand an overall market correction or run can push any share respectively eitherway.

Jana


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
No... If it is no then market Health is ok to 2014.. Otherwise if break ... we have to wait for another two years to see the bull

nihal123

nihal123
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Kithsiri wrote:No. Cool
No

LSE

LSE
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:2013 Stock Market Set To Break 2011 Record Highs මාස දෙක තුනක් වත් කලින් ලන්ඩන් වලින් මෙහෙ ඇවිල්ල ඕක කිව්වා නම් අපිට අඩුවට එකතු කර ගන්න තිබුන Wink

By the way, I am not against the idea. sunny


@hariesha wrote:Last time when index reached 6000 it couldn't sustain and dropped to 5300s. These types of reversals we cannot say bubble bursts.

There is a big misconception , misinterpretation and misuse of this "bubble" term in Sri lanka. From the beginning of the decline we argued that there was no bubble. Our famous Dr. Bubble and some others thought otherwise.

@Chinwi Wink Very Happy
Happy Trading You All...
cheers cheers cheers

Rapaport

Rapaport
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hope not! Not this year!

econ

econ
Global Moderator
I want CARS, BUKI, JKH not to run and end up with massive bubble..those three shares always has huge market cap. if they run indexed jump easily to 8000..

Marketinvest

Marketinvest
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Did the factors of possible detrimental effects of sanctions from the next yr's UN meeting considered?

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Marketinvest wrote:Did the factors of possible detrimental effects of sanctions from the next yr's UN meeting considered?

We have to report again only on 2016. By the resolution past at the March 2013, Sri Lanka should report the progress in 2016.

Marketinvest

Marketinvest
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Wow 3YRS thts a gd note

LSE

LSE
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thank you very much, for all your valuable judgements.

cheers cheers cheers

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@LSE wrote:
@hariesha wrote:
@Jana1 wrote:I thk reaching previous high after 2 years cannot be count as bubble. If real bull run starts it mostly go beyond its previous high.. (ref. world mkts)

Agree with your view. Now there is lot of shares with high capitalization and are trading 50% below their fair valuations. If these shares reach their fair value index will reach 8000 level. This is not a bubble.

Last time when index reached 6000 it couldn't sustain and dropped to 5300s. These types of reversals we cannot say bubble bursts. So there can be reversals. But it is highly likely for the index to reach 8000 before next 12 to 15 months.

Big drops are happening in CSE because there are very few actual investors. More than 90% are actually traders. If we look at this forum clearly all are traders. If we can improve the investor base, market can sustain.



100% agree with you hariesha & jana. Very Happy

ලන්ඩන් කිව්වට මොකෝ මෙයාගේ කතාවෙන්නම් පෙන්නේ ලංකාවේ හොඳට පදම් වෙච්ච බ්‍රෝකර් උන්නැහේ කෙනෙක් වගේ
මට මතකය් ඔය group eka කලිනුත් මේකේ හිටිය

LSE

LSE
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi Friends,

Now what you think...?
I believe market will hit 6500 in near future...
then we can start a new topic call will market hit 6500 during the next week...

Thank You.
cheers cheers cheers

bullrun

bullrun
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Market definitely beat in high tune from next week onwards.

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@LSE wrote:Hi Friends,

Now what you think...?
I believe market will hit 6500 in near future...
then we can start a new topic call will market hit 6500 during the next week...

Thank You.
cheers cheers cheers

Oh London, almost 10% gain, 2% gain for the day...

LSE

LSE
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Will ASI Breaks 6500 withing the next week...?

Thank You.

cseguide

cseguide
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@LSE wrote:Will ASI Breaks 6500 withing the next week...?

Thank You.
seems like that Very Happy

LSE

LSE
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Now ASI is @ 6400 what you think about the next week...? will it touch 6800..?
6500 is a possible target withing the next week.


Thank You.



Last edited by LSE on Sat May 18, 2013 11:33 am; edited 1 time in total

jonta999

jonta999
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@LSE wrote:Now ASI is @ 6400 what you think about the next week...? will it touch 4800..?
4500 is a possible target withing the next week.


Thank You.

mate 4500?
Shocked

LSE

LSE
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@jonta999 wrote:
@LSE wrote:Now ASI is @ 6400 what you think about the next week...? will it touch 4800..?
4500 is a possible target withing the next week.


Thank You.

mate 4500?
Shocked

Printing mistake mate.. sorry.. Crying or Very sad
should be correct as
[quote="jonta999"][quote="LSE"]Now ASI is @ 6400 what you think about the next week...? will it touch 6800..?
6500 is a possible target withing the next week.

jonta999

jonta999
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
[quote="LSE"]
@jonta999 wrote:
@LSE wrote:Now ASI is @ 6400 what you think about the next week...? will it touch 4800..?
4500 is a possible target withing the next week.


Thank You.

mate 4500?
Shocked

Printing mistake mate.. sorry.. Crying or Very sad
should be correct as
[quote="jonta999"]
@LSE wrote:Now ASI is @ 6400 what you think about the next week...? will it touch 6800..?
6500 is a possible target withing the next week.

he he no worries bro Smile

LSE

LSE
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi Friends...

Any comments...? will ASI hit 7000 before September.. Question

samcader


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
If you want the market to drop bring back our former prophets of doom back to the CSE the average investor is not concerned about investigations

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