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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CIFL, is it wholly speculative?

CIFL, is it wholly speculative?

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1CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Tue Apr 30, 2013 12:06 pm

anu

anu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I am sorry guys, for not being regular in this forum.

I was silently watching posts on CIFL and had a look at the 31Dec12 financials.

1. Capital adequacy (risk weighted) has come down to 13.86% from 22.7% due to loss suffered in 2012. But this is above the required regulatory ratio of around 10%

2. Total loans, advances etc. are around 3 Bn, which is around 6 times of the total capital (550Mn).
For a financial institution, 6 times leverage is quite normal. The customer deposits are around 3bn. which explains that the leverage is by way of deposits.

They only have a bank OD of 88Mn. So for me, the balance sheet looks decent.

But the only problem I identify is their terrible asset/liability management. My guess from the financials is that, they are depending on short term high cost deposits to fund their long term fixed priced loans, which would have back-fired in 2012 due to abnormal increase of deposit interest rates. This has resulted in interest expenses exceeding interest income.

If the management properly understands this and put a better asset/liability management in place, for me, this stock at the current price is a buy on fundamentals.

2CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Tue Apr 30, 2013 12:22 pm

anu

anu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
By hindsight, I would like to inform the members that this is not a buy or sell recommendation. Just a view whether this stock is wholly speculative or any fundamental reason exists.

3CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Tue Apr 30, 2013 1:01 pm

kalum


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
That is a good piece of information. Thanks! Smile

4CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Tue Apr 30, 2013 1:38 pm

piyalpy


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks... good analysis Smile

5CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Tue Apr 30, 2013 2:36 pm

Jana

Jana
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@kalum wrote:That is a good piece of information. Thanks! Smile

YES... Thanks @anu!

pure speculation going on now... CIFL still good in my view... will see.. I like to grab more.. but little bit scared as well Shocked

6CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Tue Apr 30, 2013 7:21 pm

cseguide

cseguide
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
good info. I entered this at 2.5 for very little amount. I think it should go up with all technicals and last few days trading high volume with increased price.

7CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Tue Apr 30, 2013 7:57 pm

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
yes i too feel this is neither too bad nor too good.... Smile but could be good car drive.... for short distance trips with care! but still I am afraid! although I feel current price seems just OK to enter with care to exit without delay! I drove this car yesterday n exit totally! hmm.. hope to drive again if it park near me! Arrow

8CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Tue Apr 30, 2013 10:17 pm

NZ BOY

NZ BOY
Moderator
Moderator
this week cifl hit @3.50

9CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Wed May 01, 2013 3:07 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
do not give price targets without base. If they do not come rigth you will be condiered a promoter.

Best to protect yourself.

@NZ BOY wrote:this week cifl hit @3.50

10CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Wed May 01, 2013 10:30 am

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@NZ BOY wrote:this week cifl hit @3.50

If u r sure then buy at 3.0, let me know the qty I can arrange through my broker...

11CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Wed May 01, 2013 11:02 am

anu

anu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
There are some unexplained mysteries here:

1. Roscoe Meloney, as per some posts and mails floating around, has closed operations in Thai and HK and defaulted on the guaranteed payments. So called investors are contemplating legal action. There are no official reaction from the company in public media on this.

2. Famous people like Rienzie Wijetilleke and corporates like LOLC were associated, but now have pulled out from TWOD. Now it looks like a family managed company with father and daughter at the helm.

3.So much for the efficiency of our Courts, the case on the valuation of biological assets may not see the light of the day in our lifetime.

4. If TWOD is in liquidity problem, how come they arrange to acquire finance companies and infuse as much as USD12Mn to revamp it. This is the biggest mystery.

Given the fact that CIFL officially written to CSE re: TWOD buying and infusing capital to CIFL, there seems to be many untied loose ends in the whole story...

12CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Wed May 01, 2013 11:07 am

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
TWOD and CIFL association is like " Kohomba Gahata Karawila wala Giya wage" Razz . I can remember master blaster withdrew his money very early before the collapse of Golden Key and deposited in CIFL (Also promoted CIFL commercially) now CIFL is also in dangerous situation Evil or Very Mad

13CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Fri May 03, 2013 6:56 am

indi009

indi009
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Whatever said and done, what I can see is someone is pushing the share and dumping his quantity. If it really good and if the company is going to e benefited from this transaction then why the hell the prices are coming down again to Rs 2.40 levels. I also bought at 2.60 and 2.80 levels thinking that the share will rebounce but instead it ?????????????????????????????

14CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Mon May 06, 2013 10:14 am

Takecharge


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
got tired of waiting on CIFL, market is up, sold all at a loss, but bought REG, DPL and SDB since then all have gone up in price.

15CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Mon May 06, 2013 12:31 pm

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Patience !

16CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Thu May 09, 2013 5:13 pm

anu

anu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Few more important issues:

1. More than one third of assets (1.5 Bn) are in the name of Jt Venture Projects, as was pointed out by Chinwi elsewhere.

This represents the investment of CIFL (680 Mn) and interest on it on the housing scheme in Maharagama jointly with Aspic Homes, another company in the Aspic group. In the first phase, 74 houses have been built and sold and second phase houses are being sold.
Unexplained issue is, why the loan has not been settled from the sale proceeds of the houses and why the whole of interest due is being capitalised and shown under jt venture projects.

2. Central Bank seem to have conducted an inspection and asked the CEO to be removed, as per their CSE filing and media reports. What are the charges against him. This has prompted a mini run on the deposits as per media reports.

3. What is the status of the Meloney investment in aspic group. Does behind the curtain maneuvres cause so much of share transactions in CIFL and TWOD.

17CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Empty Re: CIFL, is it wholly speculative? Sat May 11, 2013 12:52 pm

anu

anu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Interesting week ahead, to witness what Maloney magic can do to a finance company stock.....

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