Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow

K&M · 1 Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 7:52 am

K&M

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Policy review is schedule to be held tomorrow. Stock market run in recent past was mainly due to expectation of a monetary easing by CB. But what could happen tomorrow?

CB has mentioned that there will be a interest rate cut in the mid of 2013 (that has to be either this or next month) but with the IMF suggestion to be cautions on easing is it possible that CB will hold rates?

If it happens market no doubtly have the much needed correction i presume. Please share your thoughts...

Market.Player · 2 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 8:26 am

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Yes. This is the main reason for recent uptrend.
If Interest rates cut by Central Bank, I think ASI will pass 6500 soon.

sahan8896 · 3 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 8:33 am

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After two years of bear there should be bull.Interest cut is a story mainly created buy news writers.Just let me know if you know a person who withdraw a FD and put money in CDS account last month.That phase is yet to come.Some waited thinking shares overvalued others waited for market correction and this is their last hope.We are ready to buy.

Last edited by sahan8896 on Thu May 09, 2013 8:42 am; edited 1 time in total

Slstock · 4 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 8:35 am

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Maybe they can cut it by a very small amount Laughing

( to please IMF and CSE) .

Even if they don;t at some point profit taking will come but watching the way selling is done can give us a clue what kind of a market we are in.

worthiness · 5 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 8:54 am

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Impact on interest rate cut does not reflect its outcome immediately. It takes time to switch over from one type of investment to another. Those who possess the excess cash have the opportunity to grab the advantage. Profit taking occurs almost everyday & surprisingly none is talking of debt settlement to brokers. Considerable drop in exports revenue in the first quarter is registered where administration should focus their attention for immediate corrective measures. Gloomy picture on planned economic indicators does not attract big overseas institutions whose involvement necessary for healthy market.

Oracle797 · 6 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 9:20 am

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I think CBSL will cut government securities rates by 250 basis points in next twelve month. and i think the lending rates and borrowing rates will decrease more than that.

seek · 7 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 9:21 am

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slstock wrote:Maybe they can cut it by a very small amount ( to please IMF and CSE) .

Even if they don;t at some point profit taking will come but watching the way selling is done can give us a clue what kind of a market we are in.

Agree with you. I am expecting less than 100 bps.

Slstock · 8 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 9:57 am

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Even lesser would be good at this stage. ( IMF need to be happy too)

seek wrote:

slstock wrote:Maybe they can cut it by a very small amount ( to please IMF and CSE) .

Even if they don;t at some point profit taking will come but watching the way selling is done can give us a clue what kind of a market we are in.

Agree with you. I am expecting less than 100 bps.

hariesha · 9 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 10:07 am

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seek wrote:

slstock wrote:Maybe they can cut it by a very small amount ( to please IMF and CSE) .

Even if they don;t at some point profit taking will come but watching the way selling is done can give us a clue what kind of a market we are in.

Agree with you. I am expecting less than 100 bps.

100 bps is a big number when talking about rate cuts. Max. 25 bps.

Slstock · 10 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 10:20 am

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Yes 25 bps is good.

hariesha wrote:

seek wrote:

slstock wrote:Maybe they can cut it by a very small amount ( to please IMF and CSE) .

Even if they don;t at some point profit taking will come but watching the way selling is done can give us a clue what kind of a market we are in.

Agree with you. I am expecting less than 100 bps.

100 bps is a big number when talking about rate cuts. Max. 25 bps.

udeni · 11 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 10:49 am

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Although Fixed Deposit maximum interest rates are controlled by CBSL, there are loop holes. FD interest rate for 13 months is much more than for 12 months. Commercial papers are also available. For example CRL.N000 is offering 16.5% for 6 months. I don't think a small interest rate cut will have a big impact on the market.

hariesha · 12 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 11:32 am

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I think rate cut should be in next month or in July. Because money market needs some more time to adjust. Central Bank imposed the ceiling only in last month.

Otherwise CBSL should go for gradual cuts. ie : 10 bps tomorrow and 15 bps in July.

Bond · 13 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 1:38 pm

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hariesha wrote:I think rate cut should be in next month or in July. Because money market needs some more time to adjust. Central Bank imposed the ceiling only in last month.

Otherwise CBSL should go for gradual cuts. ie : 10 bps tomorrow and 15 bps in July.

Low interest rate = increased money supply

Low interest rate = lower capital inflow to the bond market from OS

Keep in mind an IMF dollar payment is due soon

sriranga · 14 CB seen keeping rates steady tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 2:46 pm

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THURSDAY, 09 MAY 2013 14:07
Sri Lanka's Central Bank is expected to keep key monetary policy rates steady for the fifth straight month on Friday, a Reuters poll showed, and analysts predict at least a quarter percentage point cut in June as both the central bank and the country's treasury secretary have signaled (REUTERS)
http://www.dailymirror.lk/business/economy/29222-cb-seen-keeping-rates-steady-on-tomorrow.html

stockboy · 15 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 5:59 pm

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1% RATE CUT DUE ON CARD

Slstock · 16 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 6:00 pm

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That too big at this stage.

stockboy wrote:1% RATE CUT DUE ON CARD

K&M · 17 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 7:41 pm

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I feel there might be a small a easing on the cards. After all the expectation given by CB it has to happen something tomorrow.
A small uncertainty is there after IMF talks though. We should not forget that in the recent past CB has always followed the steps IMF have suggested. Im looking forward to whats gonna happen tomorrow. My thinkiing is that both could benefit the market, if there was no easing we can expect the much needed correction,if not bull run will continue!

sahan8896 · 18 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 7:51 pm

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K&M wrote:I feel there might be a small a easing on the cards. After all the expectation given by CB it has to happen something tomorrow.
A small uncertainty is there after IMF talks though. We should not forget that in the recent past CB has always followed the steps IMF have suggested. Im looking forward to whats gonna happen tomorrow. My thinkiing is that both could benefit the market, if there was no easing we can expect the much needed correction,if not bull run will continue!

Didn't you buy anything today in doubt of tomorrow? Evil or Very Mad

Harry82 · 19 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 8:12 pm

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Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow
by udeni Today at 10:49 am

Although Fixed Deposit maximum interest rates are controlled by CBSL, there are loop holes. FD interest rate for 13 months is much more than for 12 months. Commercial papers are also available. For example CRL.N000 is offering 16.5% for 6 months. I don't think a small interest rate cut will have a big impact on the market.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

no no
CRL.N000 is offering 14.35% for 6 months

hariesha · 20 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 10:59 pm

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K&M wrote:I feel there might be a small a easing on the cards. After all the expectation given by CB it has to happen something tomorrow.
A small uncertainty is there after IMF talks though. We should not forget that in the recent past CB has always followed the steps IMF have suggested. Im looking forward to whats gonna happen tomorrow. My thinkiing is that both could benefit the market, if there was no easing we can expect the much needed correction,if not bull run will continue!

But our guys are bit arrogant. They may try to prove that they are not following IMF guide lines by reducing rates a bit.

But I am happier if the rate cut happens in June or July which will pave the way for a correction, which is important for a longer run. Otherwise we may hit 7000 and come back quickly, destroying many.

But even in a correction there will be running horses.

KDDND · 21 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 11:50 pm

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If market went up SHARPLY.... Very Happy

Wash your hands and stay away from CSE... for while pirat

but keep watching...... sunny

dilshan unawatuna · 22 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Fri May 10, 2013 12:18 am

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TheProfessional2013 wrote:

i also heard tht news...

salt · 23 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Fri May 10, 2013 12:21 am

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25bps

Not more than that.

traderathome · 24 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Fri May 10, 2013 12:24 am

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sriranga wrote:THURSDAY, 09 MAY 2013 14:07
Sri Lanka's Central Bank is expected to keep key monetary policy rates steady for the fifth straight month on Friday, a Reuters poll showed, and analysts predict at least a quarter percentage point cut in June as both the central bank and the country's treasury secretary have signaled (REUTERS)
http://www.dailymirror.lk/business/economy/29222-cb-seen-keeping-rates-steady-on-tomorrow.html

No change.....it means Shocked

damn with cabba What a Face

traderathome · 25 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Fri May 10, 2013 12:27 am

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Damn also with PBJ :Deleted:

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Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow

1 Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 7:52 am

K&M

2 Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 8:26 am

Market.Player

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sahan8896

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