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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow

Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow

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1Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 7:52 am

K&M


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Policy review is schedule to be held tomorrow. Stock market run in recent past was mainly due to expectation of a monetary easing by CB. But what could happen tomorrow?

CB has mentioned that there will be a interest rate cut in the mid of 2013 (that has to be either this or next month) but with the IMF suggestion to be cautions on easing is it possible that CB will hold rates?

If it happens market no doubtly have the much needed correction i presume. Please share your thoughts...

2Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 8:26 am

Market.Player

Market.Player
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Yes. This is the main reason for recent uptrend.
If Interest rates cut by Central Bank, I think ASI will pass 6500 soon.

3Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 8:33 am

sahan8896


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
After two years of bear there should be bull.Interest cut is a story mainly created buy news writers.Just let me know if you know a person who withdraw a FD and put money in CDS account last month.That phase is yet to come.Some waited thinking shares overvalued others waited for market correction and this is their last hope.We are ready to buy.



Last edited by sahan8896 on Thu May 09, 2013 8:42 am; edited 1 time in total

4Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 8:35 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Maybe they can cut it by a very small amount Laughing ( to please IMF and CSE) .

Even if they don;t at some point profit taking will come but watching the way selling is done can give us a clue what kind of a market we are in.

5Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 8:54 am

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Impact on interest rate cut does not reflect its outcome immediately. It takes time to switch over from one type of investment to another. Those who possess the excess cash have the opportunity to grab the advantage. Profit taking occurs almost everyday & surprisingly none is talking of debt settlement to brokers. Considerable drop in exports revenue in the first quarter is registered where administration should focus their attention for immediate corrective measures. Gloomy picture on planned economic indicators does not attract big overseas institutions whose involvement necessary for healthy market.

6Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 9:20 am

Oracle797

Oracle797
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
I think CBSL will cut government securities rates by 250 basis points in next twelve month. and i think the lending rates and borrowing rates will decrease more than that.

7Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 9:21 am

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Maybe they can cut it by a very small amount Laughing ( to please IMF and CSE) .

Even if they don;t at some point profit taking will come but watching the way selling is done can give us a clue what kind of a market we are in.

Agree with you. I am expecting less than 100 bps.

8Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 9:57 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Even lesser would be good at this stage. ( IMF need to be happy too)


@seek wrote:
@slstock wrote:Maybe they can cut it by a very small amount Laughing ( to please IMF and CSE) .

Even if they don;t at some point profit taking will come but watching the way selling is done can give us a clue what kind of a market we are in.

Agree with you. I am expecting less than 100 bps.

9Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 10:07 am

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@seek wrote:
@slstock wrote:Maybe they can cut it by a very small amount Laughing ( to please IMF and CSE) .

Even if they don;t at some point profit taking will come but watching the way selling is done can give us a clue what kind of a market we are in.

Agree with you. I am expecting less than 100 bps.

100 bps is a big number when talking about rate cuts. Max. 25 bps.

10Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 10:20 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Yes 25 bps is good.


@hariesha wrote:
@seek wrote:
@slstock wrote:Maybe they can cut it by a very small amount Laughing ( to please IMF and CSE) .

Even if they don;t at some point profit taking will come but watching the way selling is done can give us a clue what kind of a market we are in.

Agree with you. I am expecting less than 100 bps.

100 bps is a big number when talking about rate cuts. Max. 25 bps.

11Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 10:49 am

udeni

udeni
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Although Fixed Deposit maximum interest rates are controlled by CBSL, there are loop holes. FD interest rate for 13 months is much more than for 12 months. Commercial papers are also available. For example CRL.N000 is offering 16.5% for 6 months. I don't think a small interest rate cut will have a big impact on the market.

12Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 11:32 am

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think rate cut should be in next month or in July. Because money market needs some more time to adjust. Central Bank imposed the ceiling only in last month.

Otherwise CBSL should go for gradual cuts. ie : 10 bps tomorrow and 15 bps in July.

13Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 1:38 pm

Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@hariesha wrote:I think rate cut should be in next month or in July. Because money market needs some more time to adjust. Central Bank imposed the ceiling only in last month.

Otherwise CBSL should go for gradual cuts. ie : 10 bps tomorrow and 15 bps in July.

Low interest rate = increased money supply

Low interest rate = lower capital inflow to the bond market from OS

Keep in mind an IMF dollar payment is due soon

14Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty CB seen keeping rates steady tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 2:46 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
THURSDAY, 09 MAY 2013 14:07
Sri Lanka's Central Bank is expected to keep key monetary policy rates steady for the fifth straight month on Friday, a Reuters poll showed, and analysts predict at least a quarter percentage point cut in June as both the central bank and the country's treasury secretary have signaled (REUTERS)
http://www.dailymirror.lk/business/economy/29222-cb-seen-keeping-rates-steady-on-tomorrow.html

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

15Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 5:59 pm

stockboy


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
1% RATE CUT DUE ON CARD

16Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 6:00 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
That too big at this stage.

@stockboy wrote:1% RATE CUT DUE ON CARD

17Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 7:41 pm

K&M


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
I feel there might be a small a easing on the cards. After all the expectation given by CB it has to happen something tomorrow.
A small uncertainty is there after IMF talks though. We should not forget that in the recent past CB has always followed the steps IMF have suggested. Im looking forward to whats gonna happen tomorrow. My thinkiing is that both could benefit the market, if there was no easing we can expect the much needed correction,if not bull run will continue!

18Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 7:51 pm

sahan8896


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
K&M wrote:I feel there might be a small a easing on the cards. After all the expectation given by CB it has to happen something tomorrow.
A small uncertainty is there after IMF talks though. We should not forget that in the recent past CB has always followed the steps IMF have suggested. Im looking forward to whats gonna happen tomorrow. My thinkiing is that both could benefit the market, if there was no easing we can expect the much needed correction,if not bull run will continue!
Didn't you buy anything today in doubt of tomorrow? Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad

19Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 8:12 pm

Harry82

Harry82
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow
by udeni Today at 10:49 am

Although Fixed Deposit maximum interest rates are controlled by CBSL, there are loop holes. FD interest rate for 13 months is much more than for 12 months. Commercial papers are also available. For example CRL.N000 is offering 16.5% for 6 months. I don't think a small interest rate cut will have a big impact on the market.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

no no
CRL.N000 is offering 14.35% for 6 months

20Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Empty Re: Monetary Policy Review Tomorrow Thu May 09, 2013 10:59 pm

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
K&M wrote:I feel there might be a small a easing on the cards. After all the expectation given by CB it has to happen something tomorrow.
A small uncertainty is there after IMF talks though. We should not forget that in the recent past CB has always followed the steps IMF have suggested. Im looking forward to whats gonna happen tomorrow. My thinkiing is that both could benefit the market, if there was no easing we can expect the much needed correction,if not bull run will continue!

But our guys are bit arrogant. They may try to prove that they are not following IMF guide lines by reducing rates a bit.

But I am happier if the rate cut happens in June or July which will pave the way for a correction, which is important for a longer run. Otherwise we may hit 7000 and come back quickly, destroying many.

But even in a correction there will be running horses.


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