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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » DAILY CHRONICLE™ » AFP article

AFP article

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1AFP article   Empty AFP article Fri May 17, 2013 1:37 pm

Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Contains opinions by some some analysts

http://www.france24.com/en/20130515-sri-lanka-hype-runs-out-economy-struggles

AFP - After crushing Tamil rebels four years ago Sri Lanka expected to become South Asia's tiger economy, but exuberance has given way to mediocre growth and fears of more trouble ahead.

The country was almost broke when troops defeated separatist Tamil Tigers in May 2009, but Colombo predicted that ending 37 years of bloodshed alone would jump-start the economy and make Sri Lanka the "Singapore of South Asia".

"Sri Lanka had a sudden opportunity at the end of the war, but we failed to leverage that," said opposition lawmaker Harsha de Silva. "Our policies were not conducive to attracting global investor attention."

De Silva, who is also an economist, said the government's reliance on state enterprises and the renationalistion of several privatised ventures in 2011 was a "knockout punch" that discouraged investors.

The record 8.0 and 8.2 percent growth rates in the first two full years after the war gave way to a much slower 6.4 percent last year -- slower than during some of the war years.

The government has predicted growth of around seven percent for 2013, but sources in the International Monetary Fund say that is too optimistic.

The IMF, which bailed out Sri Lanka with a $2.6 billion rescue package when foreign reserves hit rock bottom at the end of the war, is warning of a looming debt crisis and rising inflation.

On the eve of the celebrations marking the killing of Tamil Tiger leader Velupillai Prabhakaran on May 18, 2009, ending a protracted guerrilla war, the IMF country's representative, Koshy Mathai, cautioned Colombo on the economy.

He said Sri Lanka's revenue collection was among the lowest in Asia, public investment was also among the lowest and national debt at 80 percent of GDP was far too high.

Mathai has urged Sri Lanka to reform hugely loss-making state enterprises, including the electricity monopoly which raised tariffs by over 65 percent, a move that has sparked widespread protests from trade unions.

Charu Lata Hogg of the London-based Chatham House thinktank said most Sri Lankans had yet to enjoy the peace dividend.

"Iniquitous development, sustained military expense... and an escalating price rise have together ensured that the life of the ordinary Sri Lankan has not improved," she told AFP.

Colombo is also under pressure from the West to probe alleged war crimes by its troops and to seal an autonomy deal with minority Tamils to ensure there is no sliding back to war.

Unhappy with the lack of progress on this front, the European Union has withdrawn tariff concessions from President Mahinda Rajapakse's government.

Weaker exports coupled with higher imports saw Sri Lanka face one of its most lopsided balance of payments in 2011 with the trade deficit hitting a record $10 billion. It prompted a devaluation and an interest rate hike.

The central bank admitted last week that all was not well and it was cutting its key lending rate by 50 basis points in a bid to revive growth.

The end of the war saw a revival in tourism, with hotels more than doubling their rates as the number of visitors to the tropical Indian ocean island broke the one million barrier.

Murtaza Jafferjee, an analyst at Colombo-based JB Securities, said tourism was important, but its contribution to GDP was minor compared to the struggling manufacturing and agricultural sectors.

"Tourism is important... but it's not going to save the economy," he told AFP.

Independent economist Channa Amaratunga said the global slowdown had also affected Sri Lanka.

"There is a lot of infrastructure work in war-affected areas, but the private investment is not enough," Amaratunga said.

"There were unrealistic expectations of 10 percent growth at the end of the war. It is more tempered now."

2AFP article   Empty Re: AFP article Fri May 17, 2013 1:55 pm

Jiggysaurus

Jiggysaurus
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Charu Lata Bogg, Harsha and Murtaza nice threesome for pessimistic reading.

3AFP article   Empty Re: AFP article Fri May 17, 2013 1:57 pm

Jiggysaurus

Jiggysaurus
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Bond wrote:

Charu Lata Hogg of the London-based Chatham House thinktank said most Sri Lankans had yet to enjoy the peace dividend.


This is what happens when you take Charu Lata from the village and transfer her to London, she turns into a Bogg and starts to bad mouth the country of birth.

4AFP article   Empty Re: AFP article Fri May 17, 2013 2:00 pm

Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Jiggysaurus wrote:
@Bond wrote:

Charu Lata Hogg of the London-based Chatham House thinktank said most Sri Lankans had yet to enjoy the peace dividend.


This is what happens when you take Charu Lata from the village and transfer her to London, she turns into a Bogg and starts to bad mouth the country of birth.

Yes I was surprised at how negative they are. Jafferjee Suspect

5AFP article   Empty Re: AFP article Fri May 17, 2013 2:04 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I seems that there is no space for the truth even here
Don't try to shoot the messenger
This is modern day Sri Lankan attitude, that kills the great nation

6AFP article   Empty Re: AFP article Fri May 17, 2013 2:41 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Jiggysaurus wrote:

This is what happens when you take Charu Lata from the village and transfer her to London, she turns into a Bogg and starts to bad mouth the country of birth.


හ හා නියමයි .!


නමට ගැලපෙන්න වැඩ ද වැඩට ගැලපෙන්න නමද

ලතා බොග් උන පලියට උපන් රට ගඳ ගස්සන්න ඕනද

7AFP article   Empty Re: AFP article Sat May 18, 2013 12:36 pm

gamaya


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
No worries guys, we know the miracle is close at hand..

8AFP article   Empty Re: AFP article Sat May 18, 2013 12:52 pm

jonta999

jonta999
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Is there a rational to match the GDP growth to the performance of the colombo bourse?
imo CSE only represents about 35% of the GDP and the possible increase/decrease of GDP growth should not be the one off reason for the performance of the bourse.
Very Happy

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