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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy

Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy

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1Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Empty Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Sun May 19, 2013 1:15 pm

Jana

Jana
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
IF you have MAL then Don't sell it at the market or even to repurchase. After repurchase date MAL make you more than 25% (may be 50% or 100% not sure) profit .

Simple logic Without any benefit why they want to buy @ 5/= (MAL.N) So MAL.N is good to buy @ 5/= level.. after 16 of July it will pass easily 6/= or 7/=... even if it is pass 6/= you can enjoy with 20% profit .

and some one collecting MAL.N @ 5.00 using this announcement So after that MAL automatically pass 6/= or 7/=

Same theory applied to CINV in 2009. They repurchase @189/= (09/11/2009) after that its went up to 340.00 on 03-05-10

So "Ladies and Gentlemen Don't Sell your MAL.N or X.. may be you can make double after that date. IF you can buy ...

anyhow no body want to sell MAL.X to 3.50 . So automatically it will follow with N so we can confirm our profit with MAL.N and X

Note: This is my opinion only. may be it may not happen so very carefully study well about stock, before you take any decision



Last edited by Jana on Sun May 19, 2013 2:19 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : I want to make some note)

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Jana be careful about giving Buy or sell recommendations.

Okay to state you opinion/facts but don;t make direct buy/sell recommendations. You predictions maybe happen but if not?



Comparing 2009/2010 time to now maye not be good . 2009/2010 there was a real raging bull.

Jana

Jana
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Jana be careful about giving Buy or sell recommendations.

Okay to state you opinion/facts but don;t make direct buy/sell recommendations. You predictions maybe happen but if not?



Comparing 2009/2010 time to now maye not be good . 2009/2010 there was a real raging bull.

Thanks Slstock! to point out.

I feeling it will happen 99% true. thats why I made like this post .. I will add some note . thanks

micky

micky
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t28097-morin0000-morisons#164651


Jana the predictor Very Happy

but i like ur facts regarding MAL.N , but we glad if u could state both pros and cons.

Jana

Jana
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@micky wrote:http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t28097-morin0000-morisons#164651


Jana the predictor Very Happy

but i like ur facts regarding MAL.N , but we glad if u could state both pros and cons.

thanks . just we are trading here for profit ..not become a director for the company or run the company ..So If the MAL go up then we can make the profit if we buy. MAL doesn't want to go down than 5/= level apart from the market crash so .. we can try without any loss...

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Jana wrote:IF you have MAL then Don't sell it at the market or even to repurchase. After repurchase date MAL make you more than 25% (may be 50% or 100% not sure) profit .

Simple logic Without any benefit why they want to buy @ 5/= (MAL.N) So MAL.N is good to buy @ 5/= level.. after 16 of July it will pass easily 6/= or 7/=... even if it is pass 6/= you can enjoy with 20% profit .

and some one collecting MAL.N @ 5.00 using this announcement So after that MAL automatically pass 6/= or 7/=

Same theory applied to CINV in 2009. They repurchase @189/= (09/11/2009) after that its went up to 340.00 on 03-05-10

So "Ladies and Gentlemen Don't Sell your MAL.N or X.. may be you can make double after that date. IF you can buy ...

anyhow no body want to sell MAL.X to 3.50 . So automatically it will follow with N so we can confirm our profit with MAL.N and X

Note: This is my opinion only. may be it may not happen so very carefully study well about stock, before you take any decision

Whether MAL goes up before or after repurchase will depend on market conditions. you cannot compare with CINV as repurchase of CINV was at NAV and it went up after repurchase because its share portfolio NAV went up during bull run of 2010 / 2011.
The current MAL repurchase price is ridiculous as it is way below its NAV of approx Rs 9 per share,the Voting share was already trading at 4.50- 4.60 in a bullish market (with plantation rally yet to get underway) and the X repurchase price is 3.50, Rs 1 below current price.

This repurchase will be a non-event for minority shareholders as not attractive to subscribe. why would anyone want to subscribe to the repurchase now when the market price is above the repurchase price ! it will only benefit the controlling shareholder of mainly X shares to subscribe his quota at even 3.50, which he was trying to do for long time.

The fact that NAV and EPS will go up after the repurchase is correct but pointless as even now, share is trading at such a low p/e and nearly 0.55 price to book value.

If they really wanted to reward shareholders, create value and distribute the Rs 175 Million, they could have given a Rs 0.70 Dividend per share or done a repurchase of approx 1 for 10 at close to NAV maybe Rs 8.

They should get 100 out of 100 for bungling things up with a long history of doing so. remember the non voting issued at Rs 10 when voting share at 100, the rights and then cancellation, the maldivian hotel drama and now the repurchase price fiasco.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Cons:

Have you noticed the drop in profits this quarter? Do you think they can do better next 2 quarters due to wage issues.

If there is a overall plantation run or manipulation MAL can run. But I am not keeping any speical hope up.



@Jana wrote:
@micky wrote:http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t28097-morin0000-morisons#164651


Jana the predictor Very Happy

but i like ur facts regarding MAL.N , but we glad if u could state both pros and cons.

thanks . just we are trading here for profit ..not become a director for the company or run the company ..So If the MAL go up then we can make the profit if we buy. MAL doesn't want to go down than 5/= level apart from the market crash so .. we can try without any loss...

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
MAL.N0000
offer price is 5, target price is X
7 share -----> 6 Share
share compress ratio is= 7/6

with Offer
X=5*7/6=5.83

this calculations with this repurchase offer.

Net Assets
Target Net assets is Y
now Net Asset is 8.68
Y=8.68*7/6
Y=10.12

P/E
Target P/E is Z
Z=1.29*7/6=1.505
with current P/E ratio.

I think Mal will pushed to good position.
Logically
1. Why company do like this? company staying strong position
2. if they announce more collection announcement with higher price range( to avoid practical issues)
practically company cannot buy 32M share at this price level.
3. Tea price getting better positions
4. crude oil price getting high value if its can continue rubber price also going to peak.
5. other factors. interest rate, we are in bull market. plantation sector profit growing 375% for last year
6. We are in CSE. we can expect Rocket Rally's.

Please get decision after fully studying. I am not recommend to you, Buy,Sale,Hold

Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
MAL repurchase offer is good news for future out look very strong position.

10Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Empty Re: Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Sun May 19, 2013 11:45 pm

besthope


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Our Gainer has nothing to lose and is all bravado
A promoter at heart, a real desperado
Shamelessly promoting SLTL and now MAL
Not what you would call a real Pal

11Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Empty Re: Think before sell your MAL ! Try to buy Sun May 19, 2013 11:55 pm

Gainer

Gainer
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@besthope wrote:Our Gainer has nothing to lose and is all bravado
A promoter at heart, a real desperado
Shamelessly promoting SLTL and now MAL
Not what you would call a real Pal

My dear this not promotion just giving information.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Gainer,

I would be very careful what you say. What is the info you are giving?

hope this is not it?
"MAL repurchase offer is good news for future out look very strong position."

@Gainer wrote:
@besthope wrote:Our Gainer has nothing to lose and is all bravado
A promoter at heart, a real desperado
Shamelessly promoting SLTL and now MAL
Not what you would call a real Pal

My dear this not promotion just giving information.

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