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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » What Goes Up Must Come Down !

What Goes Up Must Come Down !

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Which Phase are We in .....???

What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Vote_lcap82%What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Vote_rcap 82% [ 9 ]
What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Vote_lcap18%What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Vote_rcap 18% [ 2 ]
What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Vote_lcap0%What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Vote_rcap 0% [ 0 ]
Total Votes : 11

Poll closed

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 2]

1What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 9:42 am

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
The Four Phases of a Stock Market.

Cycles are prevalent in all aspects of life; they range from the very short term, like the life cycle of a June bug, which lives only a few days, to the life cycle of a planet, which takes billions of years.

No matter what market you are referring to, all have similar characteristics and go through the same phases. All markets are cyclical. They go up, peak, go down and then bottom. When one cycle is finished, the next begins.

The problem is that most investors and traders either fail to recognize that markets are cyclical or forget to expect the end of the current market phase. Another significant challenge is that, even when you accept the existence of cycles, it is nearly impossible to pick the top or bottom of one. But an understanding of cycles is essential if you want to maximize investment or trading returns. Here are the four major components of a market cycle and how you can recognize them.

1. Accumulation Phase
This phase occurs after the market has bottomed and the innovators (corporate insiders and a few value investors) and early adopters (smart money managers and experienced traders) begin to buy, figuring that the worst is over. At this phase, valuations are very attractive, and general market sentiment is still bearish. Articles in the media preach doom and gloom, and those who were long through the worst of the bear market have recently capitulated, that is, given up and sold the rest of their holdings in disgust. But in the accumulation phase, prices have flattened and for every seller throwing in the towel, someone is there to pick it up at a healthy discount. Overall market sentiment begins to switch from negative to neutral.



2. Mark-Up Phase

At this stage, the market has been stable for a while and is beginning to move higher. The early majority are getting on the bandwagon. This group includes technicians who, seeing that the market is putting in higher lows and higher highs, recognize that market direction and sentiment have changed. Media stories begin to discuss the possibility that the worst is over, but unemployment continues to rise, as do reports of layoffs in many sectors. As this phase matures, more investors jump on the bandwagon as fear of being in the market is supplanted by greed and the fear of being left out.

As this phase begins to come to an end, the late majority jump in and market volumes begin to increase substantially. At this point, the greater fool theory prevails. Valuations climb well beyond historic norms, and logic and reason take a back seat to greed. While the late majority are getting in, the smart money and insiders are unloading. But as prices begin to level off, or as the rise slows down, those laggards who have been sitting on the sidelines see this as a buying opportunity and jump in en mass. Prices make one last parabolic move, known in technical analysis as a selling climax, when the largest gains in the shortest periods often occur. But the cycle is nearing the top of the bubble. Sentiment moves from neutral to bullish to downright euphoric during this phase.


3. Distribution Phase
In the third phase of the market cycle, sellers begin to dominate. This part of the cycle is identified by a period in which the bullish sentiment of the previous phase turns into a mixed sentiment. Prices can often stay locked in a trading range that can last a few weeks or even months. But the distribution phase can come and go quickly. When this phase is over, the market reverses direction. Classic patterns like double and triple tops, as well as head and shoulders top patterns, are examples of movements that occur during the distribution phase.
The distribution phase is a very emotional time for the markets, as investors are gripped by periods of complete fear interspersed with hope and even greed as the market may at times appear to be taking off again. Valuations are extreme in many issues and value investors have long been sitting on the sidelines. Sentiment slowly but surely begins to change, but this transition can happen quickly if accelerated by a strongly negative geopolitical event or extremely bad economic news. Those who are unable to sell for a profit settle for a breakeven or a small loss.

4. Mark-Down Phase
The fourth and final phase in the cycle is the most painful for those who still hold positions. Many hang on because their investment has fallen below what they paid for it, behaving like the pirate who falls overboard clutching a bar of gold, refusing to let go in the vain hope of being rescued. It is only when the market has plunged 50% or more that the laggards, many of whom bought during the distribution or early mark-down phase, give up or capitulate. Unfortunately, this is a buy signal for early innovators and a sign that a bottom is imminent. But alas, it is new investors who will buy the depreciated investment during the next accumulation phase and enjoy the next mark-up.

What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Untitl11




source: Investopedia

2What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 10:00 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
What Goes Up Must Come Down !

Completely Wrong Statement and bad interpretation of Stock market Phases .


Stock prices are adjusted with rights, script -bonus- issues , splits over the time .

If you invested 10 Rupees in a bank share decades ago now your wealth is thousand times of that.

If you put 17 rupees in BUKI in 1985 now you have over 60,000 rupees.

Do you think it will come back to 17 rupees ?

3What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 10:04 am

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Fully agree with you Chinwi .

4What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 10:19 am

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Bad example Chinwi . Will anybody buy BUKI for 60,000/- if its the today's price. Price was brought down buy way of "Splitting" few times in the history.

Still the theory is correct. Isnt it..?

5What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 10:40 am

suja


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Prince, the answer is yes even at 60K if the earnings and the future is good. Plese understand what Chinwi has mentioned properly I feel that he is in this for a long time after his comment. There was a time when JKH wass trading at 38 bucks , just add the bonus/split and the devident etc you will understand the value. It will be like another Bukit example. Another example how do you think berkshire has come up to un buyable figures now?

The purpose is just to elaborate on the above point. If you buy good shares and stay it will always be up.

6What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 10:52 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
What goes up can come down temporarily.

But if you hold solid shares, it will always be valued higher in the long term.

People worry far too much about trading and short term and quick bucks.

7What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 11:41 am

Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:What goes up can come down temporarily.

But if you hold solid shares, it will always be valued higher in the long term.

People worry far too much about trading and short term and quick bucks.

Not good advice. Don't hold shares which are solid.
Sell as it falls and buy more quantity at the lowest price.

8What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 11:51 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I think you should read what I said again.



My above comment is meant exactly for people like you who does not understand

long term vs short term
investing vs trading




@Bond wrote:
@slstock wrote:What goes up can come down temporarily.

But if you hold solid shares, it will always be valued higher in the long term.

People worry far too much about trading and short term and quick bucks.

Not good advice. Don't hold shares which are solid.
Sell as it falls and buy more quantity at the lowest price.

9What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 11:52 am

kalum


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
in between accumulation and market up i guess Cool

10What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 12:29 pm

Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:I think you should read what I said again.



My above comment is meant exactly for people like you who does not understand

long term vs short term
investing vs trading




@Bond wrote:
@slstock wrote:What goes up can come down temporarily.

But if you hold solid shares, it will always be valued higher in the long term.

People worry far too much about trading and short term and quick bucks.

Not good advice. Don't hold shares which are solid.
Sell as it falls and buy more quantity at the lowest price.

There is no such thing as long term, short term. Guys like Ravi Abeysuriya talk about holding long term. He kept on saying that when the ASI was 7500. That really doesn't work. Only now do those who took his advice start to reap benefits.

Everything is based on mark to market value. Time your entry/ Time your exit

Investing is just long term trading. Anyway you have to sell to unlock your investment Wink

11What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 12:40 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
What ?

So there is nothing called long term and vs Short term?

So I guess there is no such thing as buying something for 3 year horizon without worrying about intermediate fluctuations to make 60% profit vs buying something expecting to make 10% profit in 2-3 month?

You are trying to rewrite accepted norms in stock markets.


Read the below ( unless you think the article is wrong according to you)

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/difference-investing-trading.asp



@Bond wrote:
@slstock wrote:I think you should read what I said again.



My above comment is meant exactly for people like you who does not understand

long term vs short term
investing vs trading




@Bond wrote:
@slstock wrote:What goes up can come down temporarily.

But if you hold solid shares, it will always be valued higher in the long term.

People worry far too much about trading and short term and quick bucks.

Not good advice. Don't hold shares which are solid.
Sell as it falls and buy more quantity at the lowest price.

There is no such thing as long term, short term. Guys like Ravi Abeysuriya talk about holding long term. He kept on saying that when the ASI was 7500. That really doesn't work. Only now do those who took his advice start to reap benefits.

Everything is based on mark to market value. Time your entry/ Time your exit

Investing is just long term trading. Anyway you have to sell to unlock your investment Wink

12What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 12:46 pm

Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Slstock, I know what you are talking about. But what I'm trying to say is that is this the best approach?

Perhaps my statement about " no such thing" was a bit of an exaggeration.

13What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 12:48 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:What ?

So there is nothing called long term and vs Short term?

So I guess there is no such thing as buying something for 3 year horizon without worrying about intermediate fluctuations to make 60% profit vs buying something expecting to make 10% profit in 2-3 month?

You are trying to rewrite accepted norms in stock markets.


Read the below ( unless you think the article is wrong according to you)

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/difference-investing-trading.asp



@Bond wrote:
@slstock wrote:I think you should read what I said again.



My above comment is meant exactly for people like you who does not understand

long term vs short term
investing vs trading




@Bond wrote:
@slstock wrote:What goes up can come down temporarily.

But if you hold solid shares, it will always be valued higher in the long term.

People worry far too much about trading and short term and quick bucks.

Not good advice. Don't hold shares which are solid.
Sell as it falls and buy more quantity at the lowest price.

There is no such thing as long term, short term. Guys like Ravi Abeysuriya talk about holding long term. He kept on saying that when the ASI was 7500. That really doesn't work. Only now do those who took his advice start to reap benefits.

Everything is based on mark to market value. Time your entry/ Time your exit

Investing is just long term trading. Anyway you have to sell to unlock your investment Wink

@slstock, Just a question.
What will you do if your stock is giving 60% gain within 3 moths. Do you sell or not?

In my case, Yes.

14What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 12:53 pm

Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Hence the point that it's not the best advice to just hold shares like JKH, LLUB etc. Sell as soon as the price falls and buy more quantity when it bottoms out. Wink

15What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 12:55 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Bond wrote:Hence the point that it's not the best advice to just hold shares like JKH, LLUB etc. Sell as soon as the price falls and buy more quantity when it bottoms out. Wink

Generally we are famous for other way around!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

16What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 1:03 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Good question,

If one is satisfied with profit we can sell anytime we want as thee is no law when in investing to say you need to hold forever.

But note that there is something call selling too early ( which I am guilty of ) as we do not understand the market behavior during certain times. This is when an investor with patience reap better results.

Sometime we have no way to outsmart the market.


Just think about JKH or NEST. How many sold for Rs 230, 250, 270, Rs 280 etc think I have enough profit or my profit target met 40% . So if you buy a reputalble company as an investment and not as a 10% short term trade your gians can become higher as you may sell below its value.

So 60% can become 80% easily if we do not have a trading mentality. Sometimes soo as you sell it will go up.


At the same time there is no such thing as blue chips being fundamentals always. They can get overvalued. So if you proft target is met and the trend is done, nothign wrng in selling.



But I do agree all this is easier said than done and time period of holding is arguable as it depends on what your targets are.

All am saying iws there is a difference between short term trading vs longer term investment

There is a diffrence in selling JKH as you have 50% profit after holding for 2 years vs selling CDB at Rs 50 after buying for Rs 45 and holding for 1 month.

17What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 1:12 pm

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Prince wrote:Bad example Chinwi . Will anybody buy BUKI for 60,000/- if its the today's price. Price was brought down buy way of "Splitting" few times in the history.

Still the theory is correct. Isnt it..?

It's time for you to learn some arithmatics. One can buy single share at 17 rupees in 1985, owner will have many number of shares due to splits etc though tag price is low so that his wealth is increased. So it's simple, Check whether the market capitalization of individual companies as well as the whole market has come down to the same level as in decades ago unless it become bankrupt.

18What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 4:45 pm

glad


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
If 'information' is available to everyone at the same time then there is a possibility of getting in & out at the right time. But as it works on CSE we get in after it moves up and get out once it come down.!!!!

19What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 6:06 pm

indi009

indi009
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
If you all are saying "what goes up must come down"

Then what goes down like CIFL must come up :-)

20What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Empty Re: What Goes Up Must Come Down ! Tue May 21, 2013 8:00 pm

malanp


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
if what goes up must come down is correct then

US $ should come down to Rs.10
land prices in pettah and Fort should come down to 100 per perch same like in 1940 s

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