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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Wet years and Dry years

Wet years and Dry years

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1Wet years and Dry years  Empty Wet years and Dry years Thu May 23, 2013 6:03 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Wet years and Dry years


In Agriculture, Irrigation water Management , Climatic or hydro power studies they have terms like Dry Years & Wet years.

They identify some years as dry years when the rainfall fail lower than normal ranges. In some years we get widespread rains throughout the year .
Usually we get a strong Wet Year after few dry years .

I think we can use this understanding in making some Investment decisions also.

Dry year will support salterns, construction industry, solar power plants etc. to get good results .

A fairly spread Wet year is favorable for plantations, Hydro power, some agri products etc.

As seen from the beginning of this year, 2013/14 is becoming a good Wet year.


2Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Thu May 23, 2013 6:11 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Shhhh.... I am still collecting...

3Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Thu May 23, 2013 6:25 pm

Jiggysaurus

Jiggysaurus
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@seek wrote:Shhhh.... I am still collecting...

Chinwi has collected enough HPFL and got into the top 20 list, so he's slowly letting the cat out of the bag.

4Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Thu May 23, 2013 6:41 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
no problem, I've already done 90% of my target collection.

5Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Thu May 23, 2013 6:49 pm

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
HPFL still trading below it's NAV, it will find it's destination in next few quarters. Once this was above Rs. 20, I have similar hopes about the parent FLCH as well, with good earning from higher tea prices as well.

6Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Thu May 23, 2013 6:53 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Have they finished erasing CER? In 2011, 20% of revenue came from Carbon Credit.

7Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Fri May 24, 2013 12:07 am

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
@Chinwi wrote:Wet years and Dry years


In Agriculture, Irrigation water Management , Climatic or hydro power studies they have terms like Dry Years & Wet years.

They identify some years as dry years when the rainfall fail lower than normal ranges. In some years we get widespread rains throughout the year .
Usually we get a strong Wet Year after few dry years .

I think we can use this understanding in making some Investment decisions also.

Dry year will support salterns, construction industry, solar power plants etc. to get good results .

A fairly spread Wet year is favorable for plantations, Hydro power, some agri products etc.

As seen from the beginning of this year, 2013/14 is becoming a good Wet year.



I gather that tracking the El nino and La nina phenomenons can broadly indicate the probabilities of wet and dry years. Dry years have a more adverse effect especially in agro based countries. A couple or more dry years simultaneously can have devastating effect , some countries have taken decades to recover from a severe drought. Where as the recovery from extreme wet conditions are quicker with less permanent damage. The changing weather patterns during the last 100 years indicate a rise in extreme conditions.

The Indian economy being highly sensitive to climatic conditions , closely monitor weather patterns. If you check their forecast they are highly detailed and make our Met dept look like a big joke.

Whilst looking at the positive impact on specific sectors, it would also be prudent to alert to the negative implications on specific sectors for each climatic condition.

8Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Fri May 24, 2013 12:53 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:Wet years and Dry years


In Agriculture, Irrigation water Management , Climatic or hydro power studies they have terms like Dry Years & Wet years.

They identify some years as dry years when the rainfall fail lower than normal ranges. In some years we get widespread rains throughout the year .
Usually we get a strong Wet Year after few dry years .

I think we can use this understanding in making some Investment decisions also.

Dry year will support salterns, construction industry, solar power plants etc. to get good results .

A fairly spread Wet year is favorable for plantations, Hydro power, some agri products etc.

As seen from the beginning of this year, 2013/14 is becoming a good Wet year.


For Hydro power lovers ..... their is a hidden stock not much talked about. If you look deep, you may find it trading at 50 % of its NAV. can you guess what ? fyi, its not any of the usual suspects we talk about !

9Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Fri May 24, 2013 3:08 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@The Alchemist wrote:
For Hydro power lovers ..... their is a hidden stock not much talked about. If you look deep, you may find it trading at 50 % of its NAV. can you guess what ? fyi, its not any of the usual suspects we talk about !

එහෙම එකක් හොයා ගන්න බෑනේ .
ඒකෙ අනිත් පැත්ත නම් තියෙනවා PAP/ VPEL කොටසක වත්කම රුපියල් 1.55/2.82 විකිනෙන්නේ 2.70 /6.2

Stock- NAVPS-Trading Price - EPS

VLL-- 2.42 .<. 3.90 -- 0.13
VPEL-2.82 .<. 6.20 -- 0.53
PAP - 1.55 .<. 2.70 -- 0.18
HPFL-7.10 .>. 6.10 -- 0.04* ( *- projected y/y 2013 March)

මේ 4 දෙන හැර තවත් ජල විදුලි අය සිටිත් ද ?

මේ අපට එවන කොලේ තියෙන ගණන් හැටියට .
ඇතුලේ හැංගිලා වැඩි වත්කමක් තියෙනවද බැලුවේ නැහැ.

--

see my expected EPS for y/y 2012/13 for HPFL. With this result I hope the price may go down again , giving us another chance to collect below 6.

@ seek,

They had only another 4 million to write off at Dec 2012. By now , after Year end march 2013 , that story should be almost over. Hence CER will not create another artificial situation for us in future to buy this share at bargain prices.

10Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Fri May 24, 2013 3:51 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
HPFL have two new plants to be completed and add further 1.8 MW to the line. In last AR, they have indicated that two new plants to be ready within 2012 but till 2012 Dec they were running at two old generators at 3.2 MW. I am waiting to see this Q result and AR. As Chinwi said no magic from year end results.

11Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Fri May 24, 2013 5:21 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
If we are thinking the same Thiyenawa Thiyenawa hangila.



But ALchem , is the right time to buy it ;-) ?



@The Alchemist wrote:
@Chinwi wrote:Wet years and Dry years


In Agriculture, Irrigation water Management , Climatic or hydro power studies they have terms like Dry Years & Wet years.

They identify some years as dry years when the rainfall fail lower than normal ranges. In some years we get widespread rains throughout the year .
Usually we get a strong Wet Year after few dry years .

I think we can use this understanding in making some Investment decisions also.

Dry year will support salterns, construction industry, solar power plants etc. to get good results .

A fairly spread Wet year is favorable for plantations, Hydro power, some agri products etc.

As seen from the beginning of this year, 2013/14 is becoming a good Wet year.


For Hydro power lovers ..... their is a hidden stock not much talked about. If you look deep, you may find it trading at 50 % of its NAV. can you guess what ? fyi, its not any of the usual suspects we talk about !

12Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Fri May 24, 2013 5:56 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:If we are thinking the same Thiyenawa Thiyenawa hangila.



But ALchem , is the right time to buy it ;-) ?



@The Alchemist wrote:
@Chinwi wrote:Wet years and Dry years


In Agriculture, Irrigation water Management , Climatic or hydro power studies they have terms like Dry Years & Wet years.

They identify some years as dry years when the rainfall fail lower than normal ranges. In some years we get widespread rains throughout the year .
Usually we get a strong Wet Year after few dry years .

I think we can use this understanding in making some Investment decisions also.

Dry year will support salterns, construction industry, solar power plants etc. to get good results .

A fairly spread Wet year is favorable for plantations, Hydro power, some agri products etc.

As seen from the beginning of this year, 2013/14 is becoming a good Wet year.


For Hydro power lovers ..... their is a hidden stock not much talked about. If you look deep, you may find it trading at 50 % of its NAV. can you guess what ? fyi, its not any of the usual suspects we talk about !

Aha, I see you are Livening things up ?! Smile

I was offered private placement of their energy related company at Rs 45 a couple of years back. i got the offer document and was impressed at that time. Issue was not fully subscribed. bought and sold quoted share (on the basis of the private placement value for unquoted energy sub) for small profit. i was told that when the bangla assets were sold, local company could go to 100 !. still waiting - no sign. not checked current status but worth following up if your a hydro / energy type fan.i dont have any shares and have not checked the AR in a while.

13Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Sat May 25, 2013 3:48 pm

jkp


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Is it Hemas Power or Mackwood Energy .Apitath dena ganna kiyanna berida pl....????

14Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Sat May 25, 2013 10:28 pm

cseguide

cseguide
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Stock- NAVPS-Trading Price - EPS

VLL-- 2.42 .<. 3.90 -- 0.13
VPEL-2.82 .<. 6.20 -- 0.53
PAP - 1.55 .<. 2.70 -- 0.18
HPFL-7.10 .>. 6.10 -- 0.04* ( *- projected y/y 2013 March)
The EPS of VPEL is 0.53 which is very good. is this with some other income?

15Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Tue May 28, 2013 7:37 am

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@cseguide wrote:Stock- NAVPS-Trading Price - EPS

VLL-- 2.42 .<. 3.90 -- 0.13
VPEL-2.82 .<. 6.20 -- 0.53
PAP - 1.55 .<. 2.70 -- 0.18
HPFL-7.10 .>. 6.10 -- 0.04* ( *- projected y/y 2013 March)

The EPS of VPEL is 0.53 which is very good. is this with some other income?

Sorry that was in 2011. Latest is 40 cents .
No other income. They earned close to 700 million by generating electricity. (in 2011 revenue was 500m)
Cost of sales increased from 35million in 2011 to 135 million. . Admin and Finance cost has increased from 80m in 2011 to 280m in 2013.

Their AVPS kept low , income is distributed in paying back loans and giving good dividends.

16Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Tue May 28, 2013 8:59 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:

එහෙම එකක් හොයා ගන්න බෑනේ .


Why Hemas Power? Razz

17Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Tue May 28, 2013 10:38 am

Jiggysaurus

Jiggysaurus
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:
@Chinwi wrote:

එහෙම එකක් හොයා ගන්න බෑනේ .


Why Hemas Power? Razz

Looks like the Chemist is talking about LVEN but I don't agree that it's trading at 50% of NAV more likely it's trading at around 100% of adjusted NAV.

18Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Tue May 28, 2013 7:21 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
small,

හපොයි , ඔය හේමා වැඩිපුරම උයන්නේ ලාම්පු තෙල් ලිපේ.
මම හොයන්නේ ගලන ජලේ දිය බුං ගහන නාඹර එකියක්. !


About LVENtures ,
They have joint ventures with some other parties. Hence it is difficult to measure the returns and value it as a HP entity at a glance. Furthermore, outcome from their other investments may affect the final results.

19Wet years and Dry years  Empty Re: Wet years and Dry years Tue May 28, 2013 10:16 pm

cseguide

cseguide
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:
@cseguide wrote:Stock- NAVPS-Trading Price - EPS

VLL-- 2.42 .<. 3.90 -- 0.13
VPEL-2.82 .<. 6.20 -- 0.53
PAP - 1.55 .<. 2.70 -- 0.18
HPFL-7.10 .>. 6.10 -- 0.04* ( *- projected y/y 2013 March)

The EPS of VPEL is 0.53 which is very good. is this with some other income?

Sorry that was in 2011. Latest is 40 cents .
No other income. They earned close to 700 million by generating electricity. (in 2011 revenue was 500m)
Cost of sales increased from 35million in 2011 to 135 million. . Admin and Finance cost has increased from 80m in 2011 to 280m in 2013.

Their AVPS kept low , income is distributed in paying back loans and giving good dividends.
Thanks chinwi

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