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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » The best Finance Company to buy..

The best Finance Company to buy..

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21The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 11:32 am

erga


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
What is the potential for VFIN?

22The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 12:04 pm

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Firstshort term target Rs 40.


If bull take over longer term previous higher of Rs 60 possible can be passed. ( even at around Market NAV and PE of 9)


@erga wrote:What is the potential for VFIN?

23The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 12:31 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Mercantile Investments .... check out that EPS and there stock portfolio
A related unlisted firm owns the largest gratuity portfolio with about 20b+ in investments

Another related firm was taken over by NTB in exchange for shares. Today that unit contributes 1/3 of NTB's interest income... Just an aside for those NTB fans Wink

24The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 12:34 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Rainmaker, only issue is nobody is selling MERC.N0000

25The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 1:17 pm

sureshot


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
tfc

26The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 1:27 pm

erga


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Dividends.....VFIN??????

27The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 1:43 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
It will be interesting to see if LOFC pays a high dividend. Or perhaps they'll buy another leasing block from LOLC

Just noticed that a few foreign funds have bought some stakes......

Seems the sharks have arrived early Cool


28The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 1:51 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Did you figure what the "Reversal for Doubtful Debts & Write Offs" of nearly 1 bil. I didn't have time to dig.

@rainmaker wrote:It will be interesting to see if LOFC pays a high dividend. Or perhaps they'll buy another leasing block from LOLC

Just noticed that a few foreign funds have bought some stakes......

Seems the sharks have arrived early Cool


29The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:03 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Did you figure what the "Reversal for Doubtful Debts & Write Offs" of nearly 1 bil. I didn't have time to dig.

@rainmaker wrote:It will be interesting to see if LOFC pays a high dividend. Or perhaps they'll buy another leasing block from LOLC

Just noticed that a few foreign funds have bought some stakes......

Seems the sharks have arrived early Cool



Didn't look that far. Just noticed a particular shareholder...i'll let you guess Question
LOLC is an attractive growth stock but the connection between LOFC and LOLC is kind of severed with the listing...... though one owns 90% of the other

LOFC is very similar to CDB.... the sharks will surely circle CDB. Keep an eye out for those shareholders Cool

30The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:21 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
NSB එකට නම් The Finance Co තමය්

31The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 3:12 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Not sure you already bought or still interested in ALLI.

I commented several times on ALLI from pre bonus times afterward from Rs 600+

Here is some info for you from past
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t8425-watch-out-alli-june-result-out

I won't talk about the fundamentals as it is already mentioned.


Though Family owned, ALLI seems to be treating their minority holder right. There was a previous bonus issue and decent dividends.

There was 10000 shares traded at Rs 800 which seems a top 20 holder exiting and MD buying. So I guess there won't be too much selling in a run.

Only issue is they have about 15% exposure to pawning. But if a considerable quantity of shares trade over Rs 1100 , a good run can happen before next quarter end.



CFIN is safer solid company but I don't like the benefits given to shareholders.

CDB, TFIL, VFIN are some other shares I think are trading at good values.


@taniya1111 wrote:I am planning to buy shares of a finance company, PLC, CFIN are in my list to buy, but looking at reports it seems the best finance company at current market is ALLI, NAV is 862 and EPS is 220. But it is very difficult to buy 1000 shares, Today i was looking at trades, So i would like to know more about this share from you.

32The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 5:05 pm

taniya1111


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Harry82 wrote:Dont buy Alli finance.
Next quarter big down in profit(Gold loan)
Specially for ALLI.
Someone is try to sell.
dont buy.
this is the time to exit
If you know can you please give more details about this gold loan, This is the only negative thing i was heard about company.

33The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 6:09 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@taniya1111 wrote:
@Harry82 wrote:Dont buy Alli finance.
Next quarter big down in profit(Gold loan)
Specially for ALLI.
Someone is try to sell.
dont buy.
this is the time to exit
If you know can you please give more details about this gold loan, This is the only negative thing i was heard about company.

Just to set the record straight and with no intention of promoting, scaring, recommending to buy or sell any of the following securities -

1. As at 31st March 2012, ALLI has a gold exposure of 10 % of their total Assets.i.e. Rs 1.3 out of Rs 1.5 Billion classified under "other loans and advances"

2. As at 31st March 2013, ALLI has approx maybe maximum Rs 2.5 Billion (cannot tell exactly without a note) which amounts to approx 14 % of their Total Assets.

3. On 9th April at the height of the Gold Plunge, The MD bought over 10,000 shares of ALLI at over Rs 800.

4. Harry82 now is cautioning us on the gold issue for ALLI. If you read his past posts, his foremost recommendations recently have been on Sampath, LB Finance & Vone.

5. Sampath has over 25 % of its loan book exposed to Gold. Rs 50 Bill out of their loan portfolio of Rs 200 Billion and Assets of Rs 330 Billion on Gold.
Yet on 28th May 2013, he recommended Sampath Bank as one of his top picks, perhaps forgetting the "Gold" issue

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t28681-best-20-stocks-for-2013-to-2016#168301

6. LB Finance, who up to last year showed Gold Loans seperately in their Balance Sheet, have now merged with another category and may have upto a Rs 12 Billion exposure out of Rs 52 Billion Assets. still on 3rd May, he says " Now LFIN FD rates are near bank FD rates. Then they have good profit ( gold loss is a little part of massive profit)"

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t27864-can-you-recommend-best-fundamental-shares#162760

7. So I'm wondering if Gold is such a big issue for ALLI whose exposure is max 14 % (maybe lower), how come its not for Sampath (25 %), LB Finance (24 %) ?

34The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 6:26 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Alchemist , good points.

Hope you saw my post ( 2 post above) which I estimated pawing to be 15% and the MD buying points. I am sure MD is aware of this. They should have some risk management method which I could not find in detail yet. I saw even LFIN has taken some precaution. If Gold holds between $1350-1400 till august , they will have time to take further re mediate actions. The drop from March 31st is about 10-15% still.

Even if there is a short term effect in june due to gold ( like SAMP/LFIN)

i) even at Rs 150 for next year and NAV of 800+ I see no issue for longer term.
ii) for short term , who know ALLI might even cross previous all time high ( before bonus) before august. this is just a speculation.



When people chase after illiquids just for asset revaluations what ever it is ALLI is still a value bargain. Am not saying this is the only value share in the sector.

And yes I hold ALLI so I maybe bit baised in opinion but not in facts.






@The Alchemist wrote:
@taniya1111 wrote:
@Harry82 wrote:Dont buy Alli finance.
Next quarter big down in profit(Gold loan)
Specially for ALLI.
Someone is try to sell.
dont buy.
this is the time to exit
If you know can you please give more details about this gold loan, This is the only negative thing i was heard about company.

Just to set the record straight and with no intention of promoting, scaring, recommending to buy or sell any of the following securities -

1. As at 31st March 2012, ALLI has a gold exposure of 10 % of their total Assets.i.e. Rs 1.3 out of Rs 1.5 Billion classified under "other loans and advances"

2. As at 31st March 2013, ALLI has approx maybe maximum Rs 2.5 Billion (cannot tell exactly without a note) which amounts to approx 14 % of their Total Assets.

3. On 9th April at the height of the Gold Plunge, The MD bought over 10,000 shares of ALLI at over Rs 800.

4. Harry82 now is cautioning us on the gold issue for ALLI. If you read his past posts, his foremost recommendations recently have been on Sampath, LB Finance & Vone.

5. Sampath has over 25 % of its loan book exposed to Gold. Rs 50 Bill out of their loan portfolio of Rs 200 Billion and Assets of Rs 330 Billion on Gold.
Yet on 28th May 2013, he recommended Sampath Bank as one of his top picks, perhaps forgetting the "Gold" issue

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t28681-best-20-stocks-for-2013-to-2016#168301

6. LB Finance, who up to last year showed Gold Loans seperately in their Balance Sheet, have now merged with another category and may have upto a Rs 12 Billion exposure out of Rs 52 Billion Assets. still on 3rd May, he says " Now LFIN FD rates are near bank FD rates. Then they have good profit ( gold loss is a little part of massive profit)"

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t27864-can-you-recommend-best-fundamental-shares#162760

7. So I'm wondering if Gold is such a big issue for ALLI whose exposure is max 14 % (maybe lower), how come its not for Sampath (25 %), LB Finance (24 %) ?



Last edited by slstock on Tue Jun 04, 2013 6:49 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : added more info)

35The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 6:31 pm

taniya1111


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@The Alchemist wrote:
@taniya1111 wrote:
@Harry82 wrote:Dont buy Alli finance.
Next quarter big down in profit(Gold loan)
Specially for ALLI.
Someone is try to sell.
dont buy.
this is the time to exit
If you know can you please give more details about this gold loan, This is the only negative thing i was heard about company.

Just to set the record straight and with no intention of promoting, scaring, recommending to buy or sell any of the following securities -

1. As at 31st March 2012, ALLI has a gold exposure of 10 % of their total Assets.i.e. Rs 1.3 out of Rs 1.5 Billion classified under "other loans and advances"

2. As at 31st March 2013, ALLI has approx maybe maximum Rs 2.5 Billion (cannot tell exactly without a note) which amounts to approx 14 % of their Total Assets.

3. On 9th April at the height of the Gold Plunge, The MD bought over 10,000 shares of ALLI at over Rs 800.

4. Harry82 now is cautioning us on the gold issue for ALLI. If you read his past posts, his foremost recommendations recently have been on Sampath, LB Finance & Vone.

5. Sampath has over 25 % of its loan book exposed to Gold. Rs 50 Bill out of their loan portfolio of Rs 200 Billion and Assets of Rs 330 Billion on Gold.
Yet on 28th May 2013, he recommended Sampath Bank as one of his top picks, perhaps forgetting the "Gold" issue

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t28681-best-20-stocks-for-2013-to-2016#168301

6. LB Finance, who up to last year showed Gold Loans seperately in their Balance Sheet, have now merged with another category and may have upto a Rs 12 Billion exposure out of Rs 52 Billion Assets. still on 3rd May, he says " Now LFIN FD rates are near bank FD rates. Then they have good profit ( gold loss is a little part of massive profit)"

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t27864-can-you-recommend-best-fundamental-shares#162760

7. So I'm wondering if Gold is such a big issue for ALLI whose exposure is max 14 % (maybe lower), how come its not for Sampath (25 %), LB Finance (24 %) ?

Thanx The Alchemist, As you think what would be the affect to Allianz with this issue. Today i was going to clear the order at 1100.00 , but didnt do and thought to know more about this from forum members

36The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 8:29 pm

taniya1111


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
MERC may be the best to buy, but only 19 shareholders in the company, all 3 million shares with 19 people, Annualized EPS for the last quarter is Rs 226, but no sellers

37The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 9:45 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@taniya1111 wrote:
Thanx The Alchemist, As you think what would be the affect to Allianz with this issue. Today i was going to clear the order at 1100.00 , but didnt do and thought to know more about this from forum members

As it was Harry82 who gave the negative report on ALLI, I will leave it to him to explain why and how much much is the impact of the Gold issue especially on ALLI.

All i will say is that Gold Prices have been down approx 12-15 % since April, so suspicious why it is being brought up suddenly the day after they report very good earnings and their is some movement in the stock. Furthermore, the impact of this, on their accounts, will only be known on June 30th, which is nearly one month away.

In FY ending March 2012, Interest Income from Gold amounted to Rs 260 Mill out of Total Interest Income of Rs Rs 2.1 Bill. Net Profit constituted approx 23 % of Total Interest Income.

In FY ending March 2013, Interest Income from Gold (extrapolated) amounts to Rs 390 Mill out of Total Interest Income Rs 3.25 Bill. Net Profit constitutes approx 16 % of Total Interest Income.
Therefore, The Total Gold Interest Income Profit amounted to Rs 62.4 Mill or Rs 26 per share. Their FY 2012/2013 EPS is approx Rs 220.


38The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:18 pm

Harry82

Harry82
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

1. As at 31st March 2012, ALLI has a gold Assets.i.e. Rs 1.3 Bn

2. As at 31st March 2013, ALLI has a gold Asset Rs 2.7 Billion.

(they increased gold loans nearly105 %)

others are reducing their gold loans AllI increased 100% ????

But total deposit up only 40 %
Borrowings up near 25 %

Alchemist may one of the majer share holder of ALLI.
Now try to exit


At April 9 th 22 carat - rs 54,000.
MD bought over 10,000 shares of ALLI at over Rs 800.

Now 22 carat - rs 41,000

MD cant sell now
Every day trade below 300 nos

39The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:20 pm

Harry82

Harry82
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
catch CDB Bus.
Now it is moving very fast

40The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:29 pm

Harry82

Harry82
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
By Paneetha Ameresekere

Sampath Bank which has one of the largest pawning portfolios among private commercial banks is however ready to face any shock caused by falling gold prices.

Its Managing Director, Aravinda Perera told this reporter that the size of its pawning portfolio is Rs 53 billion, but by the Bank giving between 80-85% of the value of its pawning collateral as loans, had shielded it from the negative influence caused by falling gold prices.
Sampath Bank had employed Ernst and Young, an audit firm to do a study of its pawning portfolio and to come up with recommendations to safeguard it.
“We now give loans of between Rs 30-35,000 to a sovereign which is valued at Rs 40,000;” said Perera. “Besides on previous occasions we made good money from our pawning business, sufficient to cover any contingency caused by falling gold prices,” he said.
“We however may lose money on interest receivables from our pawning activities,” Perera said.
“We also made good money at the last gold auction held some three months ago and even gave a 6% refund to customers who were unable to redeem their pawned jewellery,” Perera said.
The next auction is due in another week’s time.
The Bank’s Acting Chief Operating Officer M.N.R. Fernando said due to the sentimental value of a customer’s gold given for pawning, it is rarely that such a customer avoids redeeming his or her pawned jewellery.
“As a result, we expect only a small percentage of our pawning portfolio to go bad,” he said.
Perera said he expected the losses in its pawning portfolio to be under Rs 200 million.

41The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:33 pm

ONTHEMONEY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Before buying in to finance companies we have to look in to following concerns;

1. Overall credit exposure in pawning advance?since Gold rates are on
downward side.We can expect provisions in coming financials.

2. CIFL crisis?since rest of the finance companies are vulnerable to affect
negatively with CIFL crisis.

Open for discussion

42The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:42 pm

Harry82

Harry82
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
that is true

ALLI 2012 march -- ------------------- --- 2013 march

Deposits 9,008,742,802 ---------------------------- 6,737,801,379
Borrowings 4,189,529,250 ------------------------- 3,377,566,890

borrowing is half of their Deposits. it was a big risk.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See Lfin Very Happy

Deposits 38,742,742,000 --------------- --- 27,172,160,000
Borrowings 2,244,210,000 ----------------- ------ 1,541,555,000



Last edited by Harry82 on Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:44 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : error)

43The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Wed Jun 05, 2013 12:54 am

trader911


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Harry82 wrote:that is true

ALLI 2012 march -- ------------------- --- 2013 march

Deposits 9,008,742,802 ---------------------------- 6,737,801,379
Borrowings 4,189,529,250 ------------------------- 3,377,566,890

borrowing is half of their Deposits. it was a big risk.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See Lfin Very Happy

Deposits 38,742,742,000 --------------- --- 27,172,160,000
Borrowings 2,244,210,000 ----------------- ------ 1,541,555,000


cfin easily stands out among rest

44The best Finance Company to buy.. - Page 2 Empty Re: The best Finance Company to buy.. Wed Jun 05, 2013 1:22 pm

Harry82

Harry82
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Only 42 share trade up to now

Sponsored content


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