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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Market overbought from April? End is nearing

Market overbought from April? End is nearing

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Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Some good things are happening quietly for healthy market though people might not have noticed.

Some of us were worried that overall market was over bought.

If market end up about minus 0.4 to 0.5 today we might be officially out of the over bought situation :-) Else we will need another day or 2.

Also I hope you noticed shares like JKH is correcting slowly without a major overall crash.
This is matured behavior and so far I like the way market is going.

Next is CTC, NEST , LLUB needs to correct a bit without a crash. LLUB is still getting crossing interest.

But what shares can hold ASI up if CTC, NEST, LLUB corrects? ( Like LLUB NEST CTC did when JKH is correcting. Maybe a role switch? DIAL? ) .




Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Also want to state one other thing.

Lot of us were badly burnt by bear attacks. But at some point we needto understand ASI will break 7800. When exactly I don;t know but it will happen.

Best to identify fundamentals that did not move much. Also fundamental that moved 40-50% may have more room to move.

I am not talkign short term , but with time and better valuations in the future

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Today's price range from high to now, very vast on LLUB & CABO

Aubrey Perera


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I agree !! signs of a mature market....not like the mayhem about two years back...

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:

If market end up about minus 0.4 to 0.5 today we might be officially out of the over bought situation :-) Else we will need another day or 2.



As above

Market closed -0.42%

Good news is (I believe) we are out techinical overbought market as of today .

This is first time since mid April :-) .
A healthier sign.

Maybe a few more low volume small % red days can help to stabilize market further.

Time to start identifying fundamental shares that did not run .

Within 1 year time , some share that did not run might get attention to appreciate by xx-xxx%.

If you search the forum there are comments made time to time.
Now everyone is talking about ABAN aqnd CFVF.

What are such other shares that did not run?
( I may post later about a share that only ran very little from ASI 4700 and is still undervalued a lot. Please don't send PMs)

econ

econ
Global Moderator
I think we need good correction for over valued counters like NEST, JKH, CTC etc.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
What valued do you think they should be corrected to ?


@econ wrote:I think we need good correction for over valued counters like NEST, JKH, CTC etc.

sashimaal

sashimaal
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
CTC can go up further ; NEST will not fall below Rs 1900 by looking at how the trasactions are happenning Smile

@econ wrote:I think we need good correction for over valued counters like NEST, JKH, CTC etc.

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
There are a lot of good shares that have appreciated little since ASI below 5000 and still trading at very attractive valuations
to name a few,
RCL
GLAS
VONE
HNB N and X
SAMP
RICH
CIND
NTB etc

Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:

But what shares can hold ASI up if CTC, NEST, LLUB corrects? ( Like LLUB NEST CTC did when JKH is correcting. Maybe a role switch? DIAL? ) .


A beast called the Buki monster

Plus dont get too positive. June is a big month for the FX market. Amount due to the IMF and oil payment. Plus some regional market outflows

Does one of the US$ bond expire in June as well??

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
People were worried when ASI was 4800 saying it will drop to 4000.
Then when it went up to 5100 they said it will drop to 3000.
Then 6000 saying it will drop to 4000.
Then 5300 saying it will drop below 4700.
Then at 5800, 6000, and now 6500.

Bottom line is market went from 4700 to 6500 in 1 year. There will be fluctuations and short term drop/corrections but do you expect big drops like in 2012 may/ june?




@Bond wrote:[quote=slstock]

But what shares can hold ASI up if CTC, NEST, LLUB corrects? ( Like LLUB NEST CTC did when JKH is correcting. Maybe a role switch? DIAL? ) .



Plus dont get too positive. June is a big month for the FX market. Amount due to the IMF and oil payment. Plus some regional market outflows

Does one of the US$ bond expire in June as well??[/quote]

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@slstock wrote:What valued do you think they should be corrected to ?


@econ wrote:I think we need good correction for over valued counters like NEST, JKH, CTC etc.

They should be corrected to their real values. Currently they are trading unbelievable PBV and PER compare to overall market. Why do they (Foreigners) pay such a heavy premium for these counters? ...

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@econ wrote:
@slstock wrote:What valued do you think they should be corrected to ?


@econ wrote:I think we need good correction for over valued counters like NEST, JKH, CTC etc.

They should be corrected to realistic asset prices. Currently they are trading unbelievable PBV and PER.

What is overvalued to some maybe undervalued to others. Perceptions of Value differ.
What may seem unrealistic to one maybe real to another.
What maybe unbelievably expensive ratios for some maybe cheap to another.
Everyone is playing a different game, different time horizons etc.
Above Stocks are mainly bought by (Foreign) Funds for numerous reasons, besides valuations.
They may value Brands, Management excellence, portfolio diversification etc more than we value Assets and Earnings.

We cannot control Mr. Market and tell him - you need to correct yourself, just bcos we think it is for the good and what we need.

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@The Alchemist wrote:
@econ wrote:
@slstock wrote:What valued do you think they should be corrected to ?


@econ wrote:I think we need good correction for over valued counters like NEST, JKH, CTC etc.

They should be corrected to realistic asset prices. Currently they are trading unbelievable PBV and PER.

What is overvalued to some maybe undervalued to others. Perceptions of Value differ.
What may seem unrealistic to one maybe real to another.
What maybe unbelievably expensive ratios for some maybe cheap to another.
Everyone is playing a different game, different time horizons etc.
Above Stocks are mainly bought by (Foreign) Funds for numerous reasons, besides valuations.
They may value Brands, Management excellence, portfolio diversification etc more than we value Assets and Earnings.

We cannot control Mr. Market and tell him - you need to correct yourself, just bcos we think it is for the good and what we need.

Of course we can not control the market and the players. But we can expect good corrections when counters go in to unrealistic price levels.

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@econ wrote:
Of course we can not control the market and the players. But we can expect good corrections when counters go in to unrealistic price levels.
see econ, its like this. when you say unrealistic price levels, the line between whats realistic and unrealistic is sometimes not very clear and a bit blurred. lets take JKH for eg. its trading at 18-19 trailing P/E which we may be cheap to some and expensive to others. The price will be determined by demand and supply. If you look at JKH major shareholders, Foreign Funds, Captains, Harry J, Carsons Group etc, they are wiling buyers & sellers, demanding & supplying, at prices & ratios we may not understand, agree or feel is too expensive or cheap. However, because we have our own prejudices on valuations, and that's absolutely fine, we cannot say what is realistic and unrealistic from others point of view.

sikka89


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Not market,JKH,LLUB,NEST and CTC are overbought,problem is do they equal to market?

sahan8896


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:
@slstock wrote:

If market end up about minus 0.4 to 0.5 today we might be officially out of the over bought situation :-) Else we will need another day or 2.



As above

Market closed -0.42%

Good news is (I believe) we are out techinical overbought market as of today .

This is first time since mid April :-) .
A healthier sign.

Maybe a few more low volume small % red days can help to stabilize market further.

Time to start identifying fundamental shares that did not run .

Within 1 year time , some share that did not run might get attention to appreciate by xx-xxx%.

If you search the forum there are comments made time to time.
Now everyone is talking about ABAN aqnd CFVF.

What are such other shares that did not run?
( I may post later about a share that only ran very little from ASI 4700 and is still undervalued a lot. Please don't send PMs)
CIND is one of them,May be the one you'll mention later. Very Happy

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:


Good news is (I believe) we are out techinical overbought market as of today .

This is first time since mid April :-) .
A healthier sign.

Maybe a few more low volume small % red days can help to stabilize market further.



Market out of overbought for sure today :-)


Now the game is with panic sellers and how long this is going to last.





Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@sahan8896 wrote:
@slstock wrote:
@slstock wrote:

If market end up about minus 0.4 to 0.5 today we might be officially out of the over bought situation :-) Else we will need another day or 2.



As above

Market closed -0.42%

Good news is (I believe) we are out techinical overbought market as of today .

This is first time since mid April :-) .
A healthier sign.

Maybe a few more low volume small % red days can help to stabilize market further.

Time to start identifying fundamental shares that did not run .

Within 1 year time , some share that did not run might get attention to appreciate by xx-xxx%.

If you search the forum there are comments made time to time.
Now everyone is talking about ABAN aqnd CFVF.

What are such other shares that did not run?
( I may post later about a share that only ran very little from ASI 4700 and is still undervalued a lot. Please don't send PMs)
CIND is one of them,May be the one you'll mention later. Very Happy

About CIND he mentioned several times in the forum

Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:People were worried when ASI was 4800 saying it will drop to 4000.
Then when it went up to 5100 they said it will drop to 3000.
Then 6000 saying it will drop to 4000.
Then 5300 saying it will drop below 4700.
Then at 5800, 6000, and now 6500.

Bottom line is market went from 4700 to 6500 in 1 year. There will be fluctuations and short term drop/corrections but do you expect big drops like in 2012 may/ june?




@Bond wrote:[quote=slstock]

But what shares can hold ASI up if CTC, NEST, LLUB corrects? ( Like LLUB NEST CTC did when JKH is correcting. Maybe a role switch? DIAL? ) .



Plus dont get too positive. June is a big month for the FX market. Amount due to the IMF and oil payment. Plus some regional market outflows

Does one of the US$ bond expire in June as well??
[/quote]

Some boutique fund managers need to exit their positions. They cannot ride out losses on FX rates.

In the worst case scenario the EPF will absorb this.

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