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Market overbought from April? End is nearing

+11
KDDND
sahan8896
sikka89
The Alchemist
Bond
WildBear
sashimaal
econ
Aubrey Perera
Gaja
Slstock
15 posters

Go to page : 1, 2  Next

Go down  Message [Page 2 of 2]

sikka89


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Not market,JKH,LLUB,NEST and CTC are overbought,problem is do they equal to market?

sahan8896


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

slstock wrote:
slstock wrote:

If market end up about minus 0.4 to 0.5 today we might be officially out of the over bought situation :-) Else we will need another day or 2.



As above

Market closed -0.42%

Good news is (I believe) we are out techinical overbought market as of today .

This is first time since mid April :-) .
A healthier sign.

Maybe a few more low volume small % red days can help to stabilize market further.

Time to start identifying fundamental shares that did not run .

Within 1 year time , some share that did not run might get attention to appreciate by xx-xxx%.

If you search the forum there are comments made time to time.
Now everyone is talking about ABAN aqnd CFVF.

What are such other shares that did not run?
( I may post later about a share that only ran very little from ASI 4700 and is still undervalued a lot. Please don't send PMs)
CIND is one of them,May be the one you'll mention later. Very Happy

Slstock


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

slstock wrote:


Good news is (I believe) we are out techinical overbought market as of today .

This is first time since mid April :-) .
A healthier sign.

Maybe a few more low volume small % red days can help to stabilize market further.



Market out of overbought for sure today :-)


Now the game is with panic sellers and how long this is going to last.





Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

sahan8896 wrote:
slstock wrote:
slstock wrote:

If market end up about minus 0.4 to 0.5 today we might be officially out of the over bought situation :-) Else we will need another day or 2.



As above

Market closed -0.42%

Good news is (I believe) we are out techinical overbought market as of today .

This is first time since mid April :-) .
A healthier sign.

Maybe a few more low volume small % red days can help to stabilize market further.

Time to start identifying fundamental shares that did not run .

Within 1 year time , some share that did not run might get attention to appreciate by xx-xxx%.

If you search the forum there are comments made time to time.
Now everyone is talking about ABAN aqnd CFVF.

What are such other shares that did not run?
( I may post later about a share that only ran very little from ASI 4700 and is still undervalued a lot. Please don't send PMs)
CIND is one of them,May be the one you'll mention later. Very Happy

About CIND he mentioned several times in the forum

Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

slstock wrote:People were worried when ASI was 4800 saying it will drop to 4000.
Then when it went up to 5100 they said it will drop to 3000.
Then 6000 saying it will drop to 4000.
Then 5300 saying it will drop below 4700.
Then at 5800, 6000, and now 6500.

Bottom line is market went from 4700 to 6500 in 1 year. There will be fluctuations and short term drop/corrections but do you expect big drops like in 2012 may/ june?




Bond wrote:[quote=slstock]

But what shares can hold ASI up if CTC, NEST, LLUB corrects? ( Like LLUB NEST CTC did when JKH is correcting. Maybe a role switch? DIAL? ) .



Plus dont get too positive. June is a big month for the FX market. Amount due to the IMF and oil payment. Plus some regional market outflows

Does one of the US$ bond expire in June as well??
[/quote]

Some boutique fund managers need to exit their positions. They cannot ride out losses on FX rates.

In the worst case scenario the EPF will absorb this.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Update :

Wonder of CSE.

Market from overbought (for 1.5 months) to Neutral in 2 days!
Things happening very quickly at CSE.


There seem to be "you know who" panic setting after looking at today. 5 counter contributed 2/3 of the drop.

If this keeps up for 2 more days at the same rate it will be over sold. Will give foriegner more chances to collect.

Will I get a outside chance to buy JKH for PE of 16 ?

Best option now is for market to go up on Monday afternoon or Tuesday to reduce this panic . Time will tell. Continous drop will not be good.

I hope market does not drop below ASI 6100 in the worst case. Really there is no reason to unless all the big ones correct and others panic.

Will be good to stabilize around 6200-6300 for a while. some shares to go up and some shares to go down ;-)


If it behaves like the last few days when JKH andLLUB corrected while other countered it , it will be smoother stabilization. .

Amazing how "you know who" like to race. Either upwards or downwards.



KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

What I guest that the counters which has the following qualities.....

1. high amount of foreign holdings.......
2. total dividend per year almost equal to the annual EPS.....
3. if the product are like essential/addicted and/or have less substitutes/competitors.....

for example counters like NEST, CTC, LLUB [what else...??]

has their own ways rather than theories...... corrections... unless the government actions/policies influence them....like taxes or so.. these counters... bit uncontrollable... have their own ways....

* this is how I see.... Smile

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

You have to rememebr shares like LLUB is behavign this way now. Bit for several years it was around rs 160-190.




KDDND wrote:What I guest that the counters which has the following qualities.....

1. high amount of foreign holdings.......
2. total dividend per year almost equal to the annual EPS.....
3. if the product are like essential/addicted and/or have less substitutes/competitors.....

for example counters like NEST, CTC, LLUB [what else...??]

has their own ways rather than theories...... corrections... unless the government actions/policies influence them....like taxes or so.. these counters... bit uncontrollable... have their own ways....

* this is how I see.... Smile

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Bond wrote:

Some boutique fund managers need to exit their positions. They cannot ride out losses on FX rates.

In the worst case scenario the EPF will absorb this.

What's ur view on LLUB & JKH? U think these are up for a correction..

Imo, the fall is just the tip of the ice-burg..

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

slstock wrote:You have to rememebr shares like LLUB is behavign this way now. Bit for several years it was around rs 160-190.




KDDND wrote:What I guest that the counters which has the following qualities.....

1. high amount of foreign holdings.......
2. total dividend per year almost equal to the annual EPS.....
3. if the product are like essential/addicted and/or have less substitutes/competitors.....

for example counters like NEST, CTC, LLUB [what else...??]

has their own ways rather than theories...... corrections... unless the government actions/policies influence them....like taxes or so.. these counters... bit uncontrollable... have their own ways....

* this is how I see.... Smile


Yes! slstock i agree fully with you......

I remember my broker said about this few months ago when it was 160/-
but by then i was like favoring small counters Sad [i was wrong at this point ... learning process ] not like now..

I too interest these counter now than earlier...

some details of this counter's dividend are.....

DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENT - CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC Company ID:- LLUB

2013 total dividend 3/= in only one payments per this year yet
2012 total dividend 11/= in four payments per year
2011 total dividend 9/= in three payments per year
2010 total dividend 12.25/= in four payments per year
2009 total dividend 17.50/= in four payments per year
2008 total dividend 10.50/= in four payments per year

I may be wrong... but my believe and estimation are that this counter could be another NEST & CTC... & thus I have some plan to collect little by little when the current price settle well.......with the aim of considering this counter as good one to consider as retirement plan...... [* don't take this as recommendation do your home work pls....]

I appreciate your point of view slstock! thx Smile


Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Retirment plan?

I thought you were very young .



KDDND wrote:
slstock wrote:You have to rememebr shares like LLUB is behavign this way now. Bit for several years it was around rs 160-190.




KDDND wrote:What I guest that the counters which has the following qualities.....

1. high amount of foreign holdings.......
2. total dividend per year almost equal to the annual EPS.....
3. if the product are like essential/addicted and/or have less substitutes/competitors.....

for example counters like NEST, CTC, LLUB [what else...??]

has their own ways rather than theories...... corrections... unless the government actions/policies influence them....like taxes or so.. these counters... bit uncontrollable... have their own ways....

* this is how I see.... Smile


Yes! slstock i agree fully with you......

I remember my broker said about this few months ago when it was 160/-
but by then i was like favoring small counters Sad [i was wrong at this point ... learning process ] not like now..

I too interest these counter now than earlier...

some details of this counter's dividend are.....

DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENT - CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC Company ID:- LLUB

2013 total dividend 3/= in only one payments per this year yet
2012 total dividend 11/= in four payments per year
2011 total dividend 9/= in three payments per year
2010 total dividend 12.25/= in four payments per year
2009 total dividend 17.50/= in four payments per year
2008 total dividend 10.50/= in four payments per year

I may be wrong... but my believe and estimation are that this counter could be another NEST & CTC... & thus I have some plan to collect little by little when the current price settle well.......with the aim of considering this counter as good one to consider as retirement plan...... [* don't take this as recommendation do your home work pls....]

I appreciate your point of view slstock! thx Smile


KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

slstock wrote:Retirment plan?

I thought you were very young .



KDDND wrote:
slstock wrote:You have to rememebr shares like LLUB is behavign this way now. Bit for several years it was around rs 160-190.




KDDND wrote:What I guest that the counters which has the following qualities.....

1. high amount of foreign holdings.......
2. total dividend per year almost equal to the annual EPS.....
3. if the product are like essential/addicted and/or have less substitutes/competitors.....

for example counters like NEST, CTC, LLUB [what else...??]

has their own ways rather than theories...... corrections... unless the government actions/policies influence them....like taxes or so.. these counters... bit uncontrollable... have their own ways....

* this is how I see.... Smile


Yes! slstock i agree fully with you......

I remember my broker said about this few months ago when it was 160/-
but by then i was like favoring small counters Sad [i was wrong at this point ... learning process ] not like now..

I too interest these counter now than earlier...

some details of this counter's dividend are.....

DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENT - CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC Company ID:- LLUB

2013 total dividend 3/= in only one payments per this year yet
2012 total dividend 11/= in four payments per year
2011 total dividend 9/= in three payments per year
2010 total dividend 12.25/= in four payments per year
2009 total dividend 17.50/= in four payments per year
2008 total dividend 10.50/= in four payments per year

I may be wrong... but my believe and estimation are that this counter could be another NEST & CTC... & thus I have some plan to collect little by little when the current price settle well.......with the aim of considering this counter as good one to consider as retirement plan...... [* don't take this as recommendation do your home work pls....]

I appreciate your point of view slstock! thx Smile



Very Happy yess u r almost right! slstock!
so in 30-40 years... I may use LLUB as my pension departments..... Very Happy
I feel that will be good...... !!! Very Happy

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

To early to tell, but early signs of bounce back today.


slstock wrote:Update :

Best option now is for market to go up on Monday afternoon or Tuesday to reduce this panic . Time will tell. Continous drop will not be good.




Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

slstock wrote:To early to tell, but early  signs of bounce back today.


slstock wrote:Update :

Best option now is for   market to go up  on Monday afternoon  or Tuesday to reduce  this panic .   Time will tell. Continous drop will not be good.











So Monday was green.

Now below 6300 again which not great.

Next support might be around 6250 then 6175.

If it goes to 6175 straight market maybe  in over sold region.


If it fall below  xxxx ( let not panic) it is  not good.

First let watch 6250 to see what happens.

A bounce back and green end of day sound good . Can it happen? ( kazoom my Genie tells. But genie is 50% wrong usually)

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

@slstock no major margin clearance sale....... feel for those who got excited and used their own funds Razz

Aubrey Perera


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

slstock I lilke your optimism !!! but I feel people have already burned there hands specially the day traders /punters...long term players have no need to worry just yet Smile

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

What a turning......

Many counters... backing to home...
While some heading to north....
in the mean time some are sitting as it is....

No all counters under panic attack but some... Smile

Good Luck ... play your game ......but don't panic...

Today is not the end of the Journey!

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Aubrey Perera wrote:slstock I lilke your optimism !!! but I feel people have already burned there hands specially the day traders /punters...long term players have no need to worry just yet Smile





Opportunities  to some maybe a  burden to another. ( it all in the investment time frame  and mind set of the person)

Ofcourse  Not  holding weak companies and gambler shares will be a help.

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

slstock wrote:
Aubrey Perera wrote:slstock I lilke your optimism !!! but I feel people have already burned there hands specially the day traders /punters...long term players have no need to worry just yet Smile







Opportunities  to some maybe a  burden to another. ( it all in the investment time frame  and mind set of the person)

Ofcourse  Not  holding weak companies and gambler shares will be a help.

I agree... this is the recipe .....
make ready to select & cook in coming days....!!!
Smile

No


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

1/7 weeks= tomorow.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Selling pressure was bigger but  with lower volume.

Seems market is heading  to ASI 6100 if it breaks 6200 and 6175 tomorrow and doesn't bounce.

If it break above 
a)  can there be a panic  100 point drop  in a day  . ( I remember 200 point drops in a day. Oh the times)

b)  or few more red days with a green

Either case  many fundamental value shares holding ground without dropping in big volume.  Not a bad sign. 

Best to concentrate on individual shares without too much worry about ASI drops.

Nice to know market Pe also  reduced from 17.5 to 16.9.

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

The last phase down it seems, before the UP UP you go....

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

2 Possibilities ...

1. Going UP briefly with a TEST again below todays levels (BUT not below 6050-6000) Then we get over with teh Bear Trap.

2.Last leg of 123 wave....And little ASI beauty break above LAST HIGH

Which 1 you prefer....

Ultimately The BULLS will be the Winners Smile

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

slstock wrote:Selling pressure was bigger but  with lower volume.

Seems market is heading  to ASI 6100 if it breaks 6200 and 6175 tomorrow and doesn't bounce.

If it break above 
a)  can there be a panic  100 point drop  in a day  . ( I remember 200 point drops in a day. Oh the times)

b)  or few more red days with a green

Either case  many fundamental value shares holding ground without dropping in big volume.  Not a bad sign. 

Best to concentrate on individual shares without too much worry about ASI drops.

Nice to know market Pe also  reduced from 17.5 to 16.9.


cheerscheers onna rahasa .... yan yan ohoma yan

No


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

No wrote:1/7 weeks= tomorow.
Very Happy:D

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