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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CFVF holders, How much do you expect?

CFVF holders, How much do you expect?

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1CFVF holders, How much do you expect? Empty CFVF holders, How much do you expect? Thu Jun 06, 2013 12:53 pm

CSEStockWatch


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
It seems that majority of CFVF holders are not panic and well aware of future value. The share is trying hold its ground when all others coming down.

I am a late comer to this share. My average price is around 16.

What is your target price to exit? How much do you expect from here for next 3-4 months?

Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Should be a scrip dividend Razz

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics


You really like Script divs don't you.

@Bond wrote:Should be a scrip dividend Razz


Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:

You really like Script divs don't you.

@Bond wrote:Should be a scrip dividend Razz



No being sarcastic...... scrip dividend would upset a few

kalum


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I dont want to exit in short term. I have decided to add it in to foundation shares of my PF. I believe it will be a future gem. If you could remember tortoise plus theory introduced by one of our famous guy during the last rally, if you get the basic idea, then you will understand what i am mentioning here. Cool

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@kalum wrote:I dont want to exit in short term. I have decided to add it in to foundation shares of my PF. I believe it will be a future gem. If you could remember tortoise plus theory introduced by one of our famous guy during the last rally, if you get the basic idea, then you will understand what i am mentioning here. Cool

I don’t think anyone including MarketWatch can explain the meaning of tortoise plus theory. It is just a term that is used for his own purpose.

I can remember the below thread that Chinwi used to explain it during early 2011.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t371-what-is-this-tortoise-plus-strategy

@Chinwi wrote:There is a theory called tortoise strategy.

Tortoise Plus may be an advancement of it designed by MW or anybody.

Opposite of Tortoise is Hair. ( ඉබිබයි හාවයි රේස් එක වගේ )

They believe finally ibba (Tortoise ) may win although in short term you may see hawa (hare) is running passing ibba.

Some investors like to invest in high performing proven stocks with high PER. High PER means the price has already grown up reflecting their good performances. They think it may go further up as the companies are steady and proven performers. They are called growth investors. Somehow others think there is a risk because prices are in peak and chances are more to fall.

In contrast, people who find low PER companies to invest are called value investors. They think the companies they select are steady and their real growth is to come in the future hence they are at low prices, safer than already performed high PER stocks. They are not in a hurry to get quick returns, believe their stocks may give good return in future , slowly but with steady growth and eventually beat others. This is called Tortoise strategy. (best local example was finding BFL @ 15/- with 0.80 PER in 2009)

But, there is one call 'The Turtle strategy' also. I have no much knowledge about it.

From www I reproduce:
This was developed by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt around 1983, is based on the simple observation that the market is not always tradable. The market can be in a trend?, or it can be in a consolidation?. Consolidations are dangerous to trade, since you never know what the market will do if it comes out of the consolidation.

So the Turtle system tries to avoid trading in a consolidation period. Often, a consolidation ends with the start of a new trend. The longer the consolidation lasts, the stronger the following trend tends to be.
You decide entry and exit points in the trends. Think like a turtle.

1. Trade in the present. Do not dwell on the past or try to predict the future. The former is counterproductive, and the latter is impossible.

2. Think in terms of probabilities, not prediction. Instead of trying to be right by predicting the market, focus on methods in which the probabilities are in your favor for a successful outcome over the long run.Take responsibility for your own trades.

3. Don't blame your mistakes and failures on others, the markets, our broker, and so forth. Take responsibility for your mistakes and learn from them.


All above are what I understood, I am not an expert on this.

7CFVF holders, How much do you expect? Empty Re: CFVF holders, How much do you expect? Fri Jun 07, 2013 12:59 am

kalum


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@seek wrote:
@kalum wrote:I dont want to exit in short term. I have decided to add it in to foundation shares of my PF. I believe it will be a future gem. If you could remember tortoise plus theory introduced by one of our famous guy during the last rally, if you get the basic idea, then you will understand what i am mentioning here. Cool

I don’t think anyone including MarketWatch can explain the meaning of tortoise plus theory. It is just a term that is used for his own purpose.

I can remember the below thread that Chinwi used to explain it during early 2011.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t371-what-is-this-tortoise-plus-strategy

@Chinwi wrote:There is a theory called tortoise strategy.

Tortoise Plus may be an advancement of it designed by MW or anybody.

Opposite of Tortoise is Hair. ( ඉබිබයි හාවයි රේස් එක වගේ )

They believe finally ibba (Tortoise ) may win although in short term you may see hawa (hare) is running passing ibba.

Some investors like to invest in high performing proven stocks with high PER. High PER means the price has already grown up reflecting their good performances. They think it may go further up as the companies are steady and proven performers. They are called growth investors. Somehow others think there is a risk because prices are in peak and chances are more to fall.

In contrast, people who find low PER companies to invest are called value investors. They think the companies they select are steady and their real growth is to come in the future hence they are at low prices, safer than already performed high PER stocks. They are not in a hurry to get quick returns, believe their stocks may give good return in future , slowly but with steady growth and eventually beat others. This is called Tortoise strategy. (best local example was finding BFL @ 15/- with 0.80 PER in 2009)

But, there is one call 'The Turtle strategy' also. I have no much knowledge about it.

From www I reproduce:
This was developed by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt around 1983, is based on the simple observation that the market is not always tradable. The market can be in a trend?, or it can be in a consolidation?. Consolidations are dangerous to trade, since you never know what the market will do if it comes out of the consolidation.

So the Turtle system tries to avoid trading in a consolidation period. Often, a consolidation ends with the start of a new trend. The longer the consolidation lasts, the stronger the following trend tends to be.
You decide entry and exit points in the trends. Think like a turtle.

1. Trade in the present. Do not dwell on the past or try to predict the future. The former is counterproductive, and the latter is impossible.

2. Think in terms of probabilities, not prediction. Instead of trying to be right by predicting the market, focus on methods in which the probabilities are in your favor for a successful outcome over the long run.Take responsibility for your own trades.

3. Don't blame your mistakes and failures on others, the markets, our broker, and so forth. Take responsibility for your mistakes and learn from them.


All above are what I understood, I am not an expert on this.


You are correct. I was a bit investor even before his tortoise+ theory comes in to play. Different people understood it differently. But as per my study along his statements, especially regarding BFL, there was some thing I learnt from him.
investors forum now become obsolete. Even it is not loading with proper styles in my PC. I really miss MW.

Anyway since last rally i was studying few shares to become future gems. there's a few i noted, but cant speak in public anyway. reason is that i will possibly be wrong in my analysis and i cant drag anyone with me if i fall. the other reason is i got wrong in half to half decisions i took over pass decade Cool

stocks hunter


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
NAV is Rs18 +, EPS is Rs4.50 + still trading discount to the mkt at Rs18/share. Minimum dividend of Rs2.0/share should take this share above Rs20 levels. 50% basis points rate cut happened between 31 march and 30 june period. That means there profits should be more than their 1Q 2013 profits, simply because of benefit their getting from the bond trades due to reduction in interest rates. In that scenario dividend or no dividend this share should go up above Rs20 levels. If improved profit comes with a decent dividend then it should trade around Rs25 levels. If they managed to report continuous good profits the share price of the company may ended up with Rs30 mark. Just check before doing anything.

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Smile

I too have similar prediction...
It is based on CFVF's recent records and statements and some comments of the expert of this forum.....

over 60% of my current portfolio consist of CFVF.......... Smile

I am waiting to recover my most of the lost from this....
& prepared to hold this counter longer until it happen.......

*Pls before jump into this...... do your own home work....
**but don't take much time to do home work.....

I thank to experts of this forum for their comments on CFVF with reasons during the last few months.... Smile

GOOD LUCK...!!!

10CFVF holders, How much do you expect? Empty Re: CFVF holders, How much do you expect? Sat Jun 08, 2013 9:48 am

cseguide

cseguide
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@stocks hunter wrote: 50% basis points rate cut happened between 31 march and 30 june period. That means there profits should be more than their 1Q 2013 profits, simply because of benefit their getting from the bond trades due to reduction in interest rates.
@stockhunter
please explain how they get more benefit when interest rates goes down. They achieved this result when rates are high.

11CFVF holders, How much do you expect? Empty Re: CFVF holders, How much do you expect? Sat Jun 08, 2013 10:43 am

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@kalum wrote:
@seek wrote:
@kalum wrote:I dont want to exit in short term. I have decided to add it in to foundation shares of my PF. I believe it will be a future gem. If you could remember tortoise plus theory introduced by one of our famous guy during the last rally, if you get the basic idea, then you will understand what i am mentioning here. Cool

I don’t think anyone including MarketWatch can explain the meaning of tortoise plus theory. It is just a term that is used for his own purpose.

I can remember the below thread that Chinwi used to explain it during early 2011.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t371-what-is-this-tortoise-plus-strategy

@Chinwi wrote:There is a theory called tortoise strategy.

Tortoise Plus may be an advancement of it designed by MW or anybody.

Opposite of Tortoise is Hair. ( ඉබිබයි හාවයි රේස් එක වගේ )

They believe finally ibba (Tortoise ) may win although in short term you may see hawa (hare) is running passing ibba.

Some investors like to invest in high performing proven stocks with high PER. High PER means the price has already grown up reflecting their good performances. They think it may go further up as the companies are steady and proven performers. They are called growth investors. Somehow others think there is a risk because prices are in peak and chances are more to fall.

In contrast, people who find low PER companies to invest are called value investors. They think the companies they select are steady and their real growth is to come in the future hence they are at low prices, safer than already performed high PER stocks. They are not in a hurry to get quick returns, believe their stocks may give good return in future , slowly but with steady growth and eventually beat others. This is called Tortoise strategy. (best local example was finding BFL @ 15/- with 0.80 PER in 2009)

But, there is one call 'The Turtle strategy' also. I have no much knowledge about it.

From www I reproduce:
This was developed by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt around 1983, is based on the simple observation that the market is not always tradable. The market can be in a trend?, or it can be in a consolidation?. Consolidations are dangerous to trade, since you never know what the market will do if it comes out of the consolidation.

So the Turtle system tries to avoid trading in a consolidation period. Often, a consolidation ends with the start of a new trend. The longer the consolidation lasts, the stronger the following trend tends to be.
You decide entry and exit points in the trends. Think like a turtle.

1. Trade in the present. Do not dwell on the past or try to predict the future. The former is counterproductive, and the latter is impossible.

2. Think in terms of probabilities, not prediction. Instead of trying to be right by predicting the market, focus on methods in which the probabilities are in your favor for a successful outcome over the long run.Take responsibility for your own trades.

3. Don't blame your mistakes and failures on others, the markets, our broker, and so forth. Take responsibility for your mistakes and learn from them.


All above are what I understood, I am not an expert on this.


You are correct. I was a bit investor even before his tortoise+ theory comes in to play. Different people understood it differently. But as per my study along his statements, especially regarding BFL, there was some thing I learnt from him.
investors forum now become obsolete. Even it is not loading with proper styles in my PC. I really miss MW.

Anyway since last rally i was studying few shares to become future gems. there's a few i noted, but cant speak in public anyway. reason is that i will possibly be wrong in my analysis and i cant drag anyone with me if i fall. the other reason is i got wrong in half to half decisions i took over pass decade Cool

@ Kalum!
it is obvious that what we say may not go as it is.......
but i prefer to hear what could be gem as per your decision as at today..... [i know it may change if you get more details & findings..]
I am prepared to respect your freedom and saying... while waiting to hear your choices....
GL!

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