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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Good long term buy

Good long term buy

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21Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Fri Jun 07, 2013 9:21 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
At Stocks Hunter,

This is my experience friend, before buy stock determine the both target price (up & down), and if it touches that level dispose it, hold it only if you are certain something.

These are few real examples

I bought 1,000 CDIC with approximate cost of 200/= and when it went to 300 plus i sold it later it went to 700 plus or something.

Same thing happen to me with the CFLB, after i disposed it went like this.

Only stock i hold against policy was LLUB i bought at 170/= level before split and hold for considerable period of time and dispose between 360 to 370. Now am closely watching this again and if the suitable price come i ll buy again.


22Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Fri Jun 07, 2013 9:59 pm

Dula78


Stock Trader
friends collected some very good Ideas.
Dileepa from where you got those graphs,
1. and sure there will be a place to see those price movements in the history.
2. Is there any special web site or an organization who gives market analizis and hints ?
pls help with this as well

23Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Sat Jun 08, 2013 7:19 am

Dileepa


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Dula78 wrote:
Dileepa from where you got those graphs,
Data is from annual reports. I maintain the graphs for my holdings.

For those who think market is crashing, and we should sell:
Just because a share has gone DOWN/UP, It is not a BUY/SELL.
On the contrary, It may have gone DOWN/UP because it is performing BAD/GOOD.
Buying a cheap nonperforming counter and waiting for it to go up and
buying a expensive but performing counter is the difference between gambling and investing.

This was my PF about a week ago,
Good long term buy - Page 2 Pf_13_10
and this was yesterday.
Good long term buy - Page 2 Pf_20111
I sold some of CTC not just because it has gone up,
but because future for the industry is somewhat uncertain.
I'm holding cash and buying more of LLUB & NEST.
They are expensive that is for a reason.


24Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Sat Jun 08, 2013 8:44 am

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ Rajotha,

If i am not mistaken you said you cashed your portfolio when mkt was at 5900................
Sorry if i am wrong and i dont know how to copy and past previous statements.

Any way if you cased out note my words, This is just the beginning of the next mega run. so better enter again with solid counters like VFIN where those didnt appreciate at all inline with the mkt and with their performance. Still i dont have VFIN but if i sell my existing Shares i will buy 100%

Well come back and i think we will be having hot arguments again.....................My above comment may be the start. Lets check. ha ha

25Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Sat Jun 08, 2013 9:51 am

wappula


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
[quote="Rajitha"]
@slstock wrote:To what level do you think it will crash? [/quote="slstock"]

No idea! But I have made it a policy never ever ever to buy stocks on uptrend markets year or two back and have never had a single loss from share since! Since then have had even over 100%+ gains counters!

Market might even crash a bit and pickup. But it has already gone up 2 much for my taste and I have already cashed most of the shares. I will again buy when I feels like market has gone down enough! its better until then to have a steady gain on nice Fixed deposits!


yes.. rajitha I am with you...

26Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Sat Jun 08, 2013 10:11 am

balapas


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I see that guys who come to the forum after sometime when market is up or down and say I knew this and I told you so, I did this etc. Anyone can say that. Index might come down a bit since there are index heavy shares that just went up and getting corrected. There will be shares that will not crash like the high caps since these shares have shown improved results and dividend expectations. Market is mature and there is no credit bubble, human rights issues etc at the moment. More than a crash there will be a correction.

27Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Sat Jun 08, 2013 10:13 am

manula


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Arena wrote:@ Rajotha,

If i am not mistaken you said you cashed your portfolio when mkt was at 5900................
Sorry if i am wrong and i dont know how to copy and past previous statements.

Any way if you cased out note my words, This is just the beginning of the next mega run. so better enter again with solid counters like VFIN where those didnt appreciate at all inline with the mkt and with their performance. Still i dont have VFIN but if i sell my existing Shares i will buy 100%

Well come back and i think we will be having hot arguments again.....................My above comment may be the start. Lets check. ha ha

Yes..Arena.. I am fully agree with you. when market is down for some reason correction or what ever, people are running out from the market, This is the time to collect the shares.. and not in the run, same time I prefer not much hot stocks, what ever thinking future winners and collect for many years, so it will be like FD. When market up you can play with the speculative stocks and earn quick bucks. But main thing like to say don't buy on credit and not to use your full savings. This is my idea.

28Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Sat Jun 08, 2013 5:00 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Arena wrote:@ Rajotha,

If i am not mistaken you said you cashed your portfolio when mkt was at 5900................
Sorry if i am wrong and i dont know how to copy and past previous statements.

Any way if you cased out note my words, This is just the beginning of the next mega run. so better enter again with solid counters like VFIN where those didnt appreciate at all inline with the mkt and with their performance. Still i dont have VFIN but if i sell my existing Shares i will buy 100%

Well come back and i think we will be having hot arguments again.....................My above comment may be the start. Lets check. ha ha

Unlike most people here I don't keep shares for eternity (except the once I mistakenly took yeas ago when entered market!) Also I try to sell shares cause it gave a certain % but let the profits run as much ass I can! I bought a decent amount of shares when market fell from near 6k and sold most of what bough except some REXP shares! Also about the thing about me posting when up or down thing! I will post when ever i choose 2. Also I was not in Sri Lanka for about 8 months and only way I even bought shares was from pre orders!
Anyway I'm not here to argue with any one and I will trade the way I like! I was just giving some advice to a person who asked! BTW Arena plz direct your share promotional stuff to some one who might be gullible enough.
If you don't like it do what ever you want! I have a good experience about the PIGS who post on these forums before they get slaughtered!

29Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Sat Jun 08, 2013 5:25 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
The problem with stock forums is that the guys like slstock, smallville, sriranga loose control of the forum as it gets 'taken over' by other members. The other members become the site "gurus" who reveal info, stock tips, promotion and correctly/incorrectly predict market direction.

That is only natural as admins usually stick to news items or one line statements here and there Razz

30Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Sat Jun 08, 2013 5:35 pm

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@rainmaker wrote:The problem with stock forums is that the guys like slstock, smallville, sriranga loose control of the forum as it gets 'taken over' by other members. The other members become the site "gurus" who reveal info, stock tips, promotion and correctly/incorrectly predict market direction.

That is only natural as admins usually stick to news items or one line statements here and there Razz

"When the eagles are silent, the parrots begin to jabber."
-- Winston Churchill

31Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Sat Jun 08, 2013 5:40 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Redbulls wrote:
@rainmaker wrote:The problem with stock forums is that the guys like slstock, smallville, sriranga loose control of the forum as it gets 'taken over' by other members. The other members become the site "gurus" who reveal info, stock tips, promotion and correctly/incorrectly predict market direction.

That is only natural as admins usually stick to news items or one line statements here and there Razz

"When the eagles are silent, the parrots begin to jabber."
-- Winston Churchill

Razz ... now try this one

I like pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.
-- Sir Winston Churchill

32Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Sat Jun 08, 2013 5:47 pm

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@rainmaker wrote:
@Redbulls wrote:
@rainmaker wrote:The problem with stock forums is that the guys like slstock, smallville, sriranga loose control of the forum as it gets 'taken over' by other members. The other members become the site "gurus" who reveal info, stock tips, promotion and correctly/incorrectly predict market direction.

That is only natural as admins usually stick to news items or one line statements here and there Razz

"When the eagles are silent, the parrots begin to jabber."
-- Winston Churchill

Razz ... now try this one

I like pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.
-- Sir Winston Churchill

Good one mate, suit to some of our participants. cheers

33Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Sat Jun 08, 2013 5:54 pm

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hayleys will be a king ...............But very long term not immediately.......

34Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Sun Jun 09, 2013 5:02 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Arena wrote:@ Rajotha,

If i am not mistaken you said you cashed your portfolio when mkt was at 5900................
Sorry if i am wrong and i dont know how to copy and past previous statements.

Any way if you cased out note my words, This is just the beginning of the next mega run. so better enter again with solid counters like VFIN where those didnt appreciate at all inline with the mkt and with their performance. Still i dont have VFIN but if i sell my existing Shares i will buy 100%

Well come back and i think we will be having hot arguments again.....................My above comment may be the start. Lets check. ha ha

Arena,

You were very bullish on COCR some time back. Now what do you think of them?? I think COCR disappointed us??

35Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Sun Jun 09, 2013 5:32 pm

anges


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
lol

36Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Good long term buy Mon Jun 10, 2013 1:12 pm

taniya1111


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Dileepa wrote:
@Dula78 wrote:Thanks for the advise. Any idea about the estimated time duration to cover the investment (through dividnd ) from JKH, COMB, Hemas and NTB ?
FYI

Good long term buy - Page 2 Nest11

Good long term buy - Page 2 Llub10

Good long term buy - Page 2 Ctc10

Good long term buy - Page 2 Ntb10

Good long term buy - Page 2 Cic10

Good long term buy - Page 2 Dist10
I think you have a good idea about LLUB and NEST, I am also collecting them, i have got 1050 NEST at 1200 avg price and 5000 LLUB at 252 avg price. I am so confident about those shares but a bit confused about LLUB trading pattern, It went suddenly to 375 and again dropped to 310 level. As a fundamentally strong share i am confused about its trading pattern. Hope you have a good idea about what happened in last one month to LLUB. Your explanation would be so helpful to me. thx

37Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Mon Jun 10, 2013 1:17 pm

Dula78


Stock Trader
I just feel COMB is going to be a very good longn term share ( at the current 121 rate ) than NEST and LLUB, waht is ur idea ?

38Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Mon Jun 10, 2013 1:34 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
You just have to time your entry. To pick something up from slstock.com (I assume this is owned by slstock)

On 13/6/2012

Abans: 91
COMB.N: 100
COCO: 44
CFVF: 7 Wink
CDB: 35
JKH:182
DIST: 128
LOLC: 35
NTB: 46
SEYB: 56
TESS: 2 Razz
TFC.N: 19 Razz
VONE: 15.10
TWOD: 12.3 tongue
SAMP: 155
RICH: 6
PABC: 18
MBSL: 19.30
HNB.N: 147.90
HNB.X: 89.90

Now that was one of the best days on the CSE..... best days to buy.

39Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Mon Jun 10, 2013 1:42 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
You have assumed wrong. I have nothing to do with slstock.com

We cannot go back to June 2012. But I did make a post sometime then, that it is time to analyze and collect shares bit by bit.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19816-some-thoughts-on-cse-market-situation-at-present
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19939-good-shares-time-to-analyze-and-post-findings-open-invitation-to-all


If you missed that chance, then there are opportunities even now. At somepoint it will pass ASI 7800 again. The game is think smart and be ahead of others by that time.

Thinking short term always might make one over see things .


@rainmaker wrote:You just have to time your entry. To pick something up from slstock.com (I assume this is owned by slstock)

On 13/6/2012

Abans: 91
COMB.N: 100
COCO: 44
CFVF: 7 Wink
CDB: 35
JKH:182
DIST: 128
LOLC: 35
NTB: 46
SEYB: 56
TESS: 2 Razz
TFC.N: 19 Razz
VONE: 15.10
TWOD: 12.3 tongue
SAMP: 155
RICH: 6
PABC: 18
MBSL: 19.30
HNB.N: 147.90
HNB.X: 89.90

Now that was one of the best days on the CSE..... best days to buy.

40Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Mon Jun 10, 2013 2:01 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:I have nothing to do with slstock.com

We cannot go back to June 2012. But I did make a post sometime then, that it is time to analyze and collect shares bit by bit.

Well that's a shame. That site is extremely useful. I know of at least one fund manager (Floyd) who uses this from time to time.

Yes we can't go back to the past but we can see what worked and what did not.

COMB, SEYB, HNB, SAMP and JKH

Technically LOLC is bigger than JKH..... only if their management was more independent then they would issue shares to settle their debts. Better management would see LOLC with the third/fourth largest capitalisation

41Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Mon Jun 10, 2013 4:04 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
Just check the price movements (except bonus/split issued shares) as at 6/6/2012 (near to the market bottom) and 7/6/2013.

Price Movement

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

42Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Mon Jun 10, 2013 4:36 pm

Dula78


Stock Trader
Oh a very good info. Tks

43Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Mon Jun 10, 2013 4:44 pm

Dileepa


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@taniya1111 wrote:
I think you have a good idea about LLUB and NEST, I am also collecting them, i have got 1050 NEST at 1200 avg price and 5000 LLUB at 252 avg price. I am so confident about those shares but a bit confused about LLUB trading pattern, It went suddenly to 375 and again dropped to 310 level. As a fundamentally strong share i am confused about its trading pattern. Hope you have a good idea about what happened in last one month to LLUB. Your explanation would be so helpful to me. thx
LLUB RSI hit 98.03 on 4th June.
This is a record high in CSE and a sell off is imminent because of that.
Not everybody is out there for long run Very Happy
However less than 700k shares were traded during the sell off.
---------------------------------------------------
Foreign holding @2013-06-03 : 35,723,655
Foreign holding @2013-06-10 : 36,280,949
---------------------------------------------------
Sell off was around 640K and foreigners bought about 500K

In my opinion, LLUB will settle around 300/= and
start to pick up with the dividend announcement next month.
Even a very conservative graham formula gives a intrinsic value of 418/=
#19(8 + 2x7) = 418

Cheers!

44Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Mon Jun 10, 2013 6:06 pm

taniya1111


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Dileepa wrote:
@taniya1111 wrote:
I think you have a good idea about LLUB and NEST, I am also collecting them, i have got 1050 NEST at 1200 avg price and 5000 LLUB at 252 avg price. I am so confident about those shares but a bit confused about LLUB trading pattern, It went suddenly to 375 and again dropped to 310 level. As a fundamentally strong share i am confused about its trading pattern. Hope you have a good idea about what happened in last one month to LLUB. Your explanation would be so helpful to me. thx
LLUB RSI hit 98.03 on 4th June.
This is a record high in CSE and a sell off is imminent because of that.
Not everybody is out there for long run Very Happy
However less than 700k shares were traded during the sell off.
---------------------------------------------------
Foreign holding @2013-06-03 : 35,723,655
Foreign holding @2013-06-10 : 36,280,949
---------------------------------------------------
Sell off was around 640K and foreigners bought about 500K

In my opinion, LLUB will settle around 300/= and
start to pick up with the dividend announcement next month.
Even a very conservative graham formula gives a intrinsic value of 418/=
#19(8 + 2x7) = 418

Cheers!

I accept your intrinsic valuation, but correction should be made, Last quarter EPS was 6.42. So annualized EPS is 25.60, using 25.6 will give a higher valuation
25(8+2*5) = 450,
I reduced the growth to 5 percent from 7. And 25.6 to 25. If i had used those figures theoretical valuation is 563.

45Good long term buy - Page 2 Empty Re: Good long term buy Mon Jun 10, 2013 7:17 pm

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@rainmaker wrote:
@slstock wrote:I have nothing to do with slstock.com

We cannot go back to June 2012. But I did make a post sometime then, that it is time to analyze and collect shares bit by bit.

Well that's a shame. That site is extremely useful. I know of at least one fund manager (Floyd) who uses this from time to time.

Yes we can't go back to the past but we can see what worked and what did not.

COMB, SEYB, HNB, SAMP and JKH

Technically LOLC is bigger than JKH..... only if their management was more independent then they would issue shares to settle their debts. Better management would see LOLC with the third/fourth largest capitalisation


LOLC Acquisition of BRWN via Diriya investment is a real game changer. Now with all acquisition LOLC become the ultimate parent of BRWN as well as BIL and FLCH and all their sibsidiaries Am I correct ?

And also this acquisition made the LOLC+BRWN stake of SEYB exceeding the limit of 15 % ceiling by the CBSL, I think thew own more than 20 % of SEYB.N.

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