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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » DAILY CHRONICLE™ » Gold ‘Triangle’ Signals Price Drop to $1,250: Technical Analysis

Gold ‘Triangle’ Signals Price Drop to $1,250: Technical Analysis

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sashimaal

sashimaal
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Gold is set to drop to the lowest level since 2010 after forming a symmetrical triangle, according to technical analysis by Bank of America Corp.

Bullion for immediate delivery will drop to as low as $1,250 an ounce over the next month after the “well-defined, symmetrical triangle” it formed since April 16, MacNeil Curry, chief of rates and currencies technical strategist at Bank of America in New York, said by telephone yesterday. That would be the lowest level since September 2010.

“Over the course of next month we’d look for the price action to trade lower to the $1,263 to $1,250 area before greater signs of a basing emerge,” Curry said.
Gold has fallen 17 percent this year as some investors lost faith in the traditional store of value after 12 years of gains. Bullion plunged into a bear market in April and traded at $1,383.45 an ounce by 7:35 a.m. in London.

The triangle is formed from the two-year low of $1,321.95 on April 16 and the rebound to $1,488.10 an ounce by May 3, Curry said. In technical analysis, investors and analysts use charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

Source: Bloomberg

To contact the reporter on this story: Maria Kolesnikova in London at mkolesnikova@bloomberg.net

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Can u publish the link too...

sashimaal

sashimaal
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-11/gold-triangle-signals-price-drop-to-1-250-technical-analysis.html

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics


The below was the earlier triangle formed just after the peak prices last year 2012. (between 1900 and 1600)

Gold ‘Triangle’ Signals Price Drop to $1,250: Technical Analysis Trojuholn%C3%ADk%20Gold



In June 2012 they predicted the prices can reach 2115 if it go upwards or 1250 if go down by studying the above triangle.

Thereafter the downward movement has happened and a new triangle is being formed during march and June 2013 between 1600 and 1370.

Hence the prices can go down even below 1250.

stumpy

stumpy
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Chinwi,

It was a sell for me from last Oct. 2012 after the confirmation of trendline break.
Didn't use anything except for a simple Trendline Very Happy

Gold ‘Triangle’ Signals Price Drop to $1,250: Technical Analysis Goldwe11

Cheers!

LSE

LSE
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@sashimaal wrote:Gold is set to drop to the lowest level since 2010 after forming a symmetrical triangle, according to technical analysis by Bank of America Corp.

Bullion for immediate delivery will drop to as low as $1,250 an ounce over the next month after the “well-defined, symmetrical triangle” it formed since April 16, MacNeil Curry, chief of rates and currencies technical strategist at Bank of America in New York, said by telephone yesterday. That would be the lowest level since September 2010.

“Over the course of next month we’d look for the price action to trade lower to the $1,263 to $1,250 area before greater signs of a basing emerge,” Curry said.
Gold has fallen 17 percent this year as some investors lost faith in the traditional store of value after 12 years of gains. Bullion plunged into a bear market in April and traded at $1,383.45 an ounce by 7:35 a.m. in London.

The triangle is formed from the two-year low of $1,321.95 on April 16 and the rebound to $1,488.10 an ounce by May 3, Curry said. In technical analysis, investors and analysts use charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

Source: Bloomberg

To contact the reporter on this story: Maria Kolesnikova in London at mkolesnikova@bloomberg.net


Dear sashimaal thank you very much... keep it up... expect more from you mate... cheers

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@stumpy wrote:Chinwi,

It was a sell for me from last Oct. 2012 after the confirmation of trendline break.
Didn't use anything except for a simple Trendline Very Happy

Gold ‘Triangle’ Signals Price Drop to $1,250: Technical Analysis Goldwe11

Cheers!

Your graph clearly shows it. Incredible and spot on happening of the reality with the theory.

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Another Triangle? May be 1250 is the new target...

Gold ‘Triangle’ Signals Price Drop to $1,250: Technical Analysis Gold_c10

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Those technical doesn't work for GOLD
No disagreement gold is supposed to slid

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
By Nicholas Larkin
Gold’s recovery to a three-week high last week is over and prices that entered a bear market in April may fall another 5.5 percent to about $1,303 an ounce, according to technical analysis by UBS AG.

The $1,303 level would be the 50 percent retracement of bullion’s rally from October 2008 to its record in 2011, one of the levels singled out in so-called Fibonacci analysis. A “cross lower” in Stochastic momentum indicators would be a bearish signal, UBS said in a report June 7, when prices dropped the most in three weeks.

“This would suggest the recent recovery is over,” Richard Adcock, a technical strategist at UBS in London, wrote in the report. “The next leg of the bear trend is to be seen down to the long-term 50 percent retracement point at $1,303, which we would set as our objective.”

Gold slid 18 percent this year as an improving U.S. economy increased speculation the Federal Reserve may scale back quantitative-easing measures that helped bullion cap a 12-year bull run in 2012. Prices are now 28 percent below the $1,921.15 record set in September 2011 and investors are holding the least metal through exchange-traded products in more than two years.

Bullion for immediate delivery traded at $1,379.32 by 11:17 a.m. in London, after dropping 2.2 percent on June 7. It had reached $1,423.90 the day before, the highest since May 15. If gold were to fall below $1,350, there may be “nothing” to support prices between there and the $1,200 to $1,225 area, economist Dennis Gartman wrote today in his daily report.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. Stochastics, technical analysis tools based on momentum measures, are often used to identify whether a security’s price is overbought or oversold.

To contact the reporter for this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-10/gold-bear-market-seen-extending-to-1-303-technical-analysis.html

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@salt wrote:Those technical doesn't work for GOLD
No disagreement gold is supposed to slid

U need to read Stumpy's simplest explanation again I think Twisted Evil

Before all these triangles come in to play, a breakout of a simple trend line would mean a reversal..

sashimaal

sashimaal
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Gold Trade Most Bearish Since ’10 as Fed Spurs Drop: Commodities
By Nicholas Larkin - Jun 21, 2013


Gold traders are the most bearish in 3 1/2 years after prices fell to the lowest since 2010 following Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s comments that the central bank may start curbing stimulus.

Fifteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to fall next week, with six bullish and five neutral, the largest proportion of bears since January 2010. The metal slumped below $1,300 an ounce for the first time since September 2010 yesterday. Investors sold 525.9 metric tons valued at about $21.9 billion from exchange-traded products this year.

Gold as much as doubled since 2008 as quantitative easing swelled the Fed’s balance sheet to a record $3.41 trillion. Bernanke said June 19 the central bank may start reducing the $85 billion in monthly debt buying this year and end the program in 2014. Bullion is heading for its first annual drop since 2000 after some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value.

“The comments by the Fed are really the last signal for the soft hands that the bull market in gold is ending,” said Frederique Dubrion, the Geneva-based president and chief investment officer of Blue Star Advisors SA, which manages metals and energy assets. “One of the appeals of gold, especially since 2008, was because of quantitative easing. That they are going to slow down the pace of purchasing is not a good signal for gold.”


Gold Price

The metal reached $1,269.46 an ounce in London today, the lowest since September 2010, before rebounding for the first gain this week. This year’s 23 percent slump to $1,293.94 is set to be the worst since 1981. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities dropped 5.7 percent since the start of January and the MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD) of equities rose 3.4 percent. Treasuries lost 2.4 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.


The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.54 percent today, the highest since August 2011, two days after Bernanke’s comments indicated the Fed sees the economy healing from a burst credit bubble. The 1.7 percent growth in the U.S. economy this quarter will accelerate in the next five quarters, economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

The 2,106.1 tons of bullion held through ETPs is the lowest since March 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Billionaire John Paulson, the biggest investor in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the largest gold ETP, had a 13 percent loss in his Gold Fund last month. The slump also hurt Newcrest Mining Ltd. Australia’s top gold producer, which said this month it will write down the value of its assets by as much as A$6 billion ($5.5 billion). 


Inflation Expectations

Investors are dumping gold because the unprecedented money printing by central banks around the world that pushed U.S. equities to a record last month has so far failed to spur inflation. Expectations (USGGBE10) for increases in consumer prices, as measured by the break-even rate for 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, fell 21 percent this year.

The surge in coin and jewelry demand seen in April when prices entered a bear market may not be repeated to the same extent now, said Walter de Wet, an analyst at Standard Bank Plc in Johannesburg. India, the top buyer, raised gold import taxes earlier this month to contain a record current-account deficit. Physical demand in North America and Europe has dropped 80 percent from April, Kitco Metals Inc. said in a June 18 report.


Coin Sales

The U.S. Mint sold 34,500 ounces of American Eagle gold coins so far this month, compared with 70,000 ounces in May and 209,500 ounces in April, data on its website show. It still predicted this month that gold and silver coin sales may reach a record this year and the Austrian Mint said it expects “quite good business” in the next couple of months.

The Fed’s forecasts still showed most officials don’t expect to begin raising the benchmark lending rate from a record-low of zero to 0.25 percent until 2015. The Bank of Japan restated last week its April pledge to increase the monetary base by 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen ($715 billion) a year. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers stand ready to act further if economic conditions worsen.

“The sell off from the Fed’s announcement, as well as recent declines on concern about an impending Fed easing of stimulus, is overdone,” said Adrian Day, who manages about $135 million of assets as the president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland. “Monetary policy globally remains very accommodative.”


RSI Index

Bullion’s 14-day relative strength index was at 28.9 today, below the level of 30 that indicates to some analysts who study technical charts that a rebound may be imminent. When the measure settled below 30 in May, prices rose as much as 6.4 percent in the following three weeks.


Hedge funds and other large speculators cut their net-long position by 4.1 percent to 54,779 contracts in the week to June 11, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s still up 54 percent from May 21, when bets on higher prices were at the lowest in almost six years.

Gold may drop to $1,250 in a month, UBS AG wrote in a report yesterday, while Ric Deverell, head of commodities research at Credit Suisse Group AG, said prices will probably fall to about $1,100 in a year. Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics and international business at New York University, has forecast a decline toward $1,000 by 2015. The metal reached a record $1,921.15 in September 2011.


Sugar Survey

In other commodities, six of 10 people surveyed expect raw sugar to rise next week and one was neutral. The commodity slid 13 percent to 16.89 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York this year.

Fourteen of 25 surveyed anticipate lower corn prices and eight said the grain will gain, while 15 of 26 said soybeans will drop and 10 expect higher prices. Twelve traders predicted declines in wheat and six were bullish. Corn slid 20 percent to $5.6125 a bushel this year in Chicago. The December contract, which reflects supply after the U.S. harvest, is down 6.4 percent this year. Soybeans fell 9.3 percent to $12.7825 a bushel, as wheat slipped 8.9 percent to $7.0875 a bushel.

Fourteen traders and analysts surveyed expect copper to drop next week, five were bullish and four were neutral. The metal for delivery in three months, the London Metal Exchange’s benchmark contract, fell 14 percent to $6,820.25 a ton this year.

The S&P GSCI gauge of commodities slipped 10 percent since mid-February and Deutsche Bank AG said in a June 18 report that prices are poised to remain in “subdued territory for years to come.” The MSCI All-Country World Index fell to the lowest in three months this week following Bernanke’s comments and as a private report showed manufacturing shrank at a faster pace in China, the biggest user of everything from copper to coal.

“There’s definitely a bearish sentiment in the market” following the Fed outlook, said Tom Pugh, a commodities economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. “We also just had the Chinese PMI numbers, which were obviously weak. That’s not so damaging for agricultural markets as it is for things like industrial metals.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-06-20/gold-trade-most-bearish-since-10-as-fed-spurs-drop-commodities.html

sashimaal

sashimaal
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Gold fell to the lowest level since September 2010 as U.S. economic data beat estimates, backing the case for reduced stimulus from the Federal Reserve as the dollar strengthened. Silver sank to the cheapest since August 2010.

Cash bullion dropped as much as 2.6 percent to $1,244 an ounce, the cheapest since Sept. 13, 2010, and was at $1,249.25 at 11:57 a.m. in Singapore. It’s lost 22 percent since the start of April, heading for its worst quarterly performance since 1920, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Silver retreated as much as 4.5 percent to $18.7630 an ounce.

U.S. durable goods orders rose more than forecast in May, while consumer confidence for June exceeded projections, data showed. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said this month the central bank, which buys $85 billion of Treasury and mortgage debt a month, may trim purchases this year and end the program in 2014 should the economy continue to improve. This year, investors have sold gold from exchange-traded products at a record pace.

“The raft of figures that came out of the U.S. all pointed to a stronger growth pattern, which pushed the U.S. dollar higher,” David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets, said by phone from Sydney. “That’s two nails in the coffin for gold: A stronger U.S. dollar and expectations that quantitative easing will be scaled back.”
Gold has fallen 25 percent in 2013, dropping into a bear market in April, as the Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index climbed 5.1 percent.

The gauge, representing 10 major currencies weighted by liquidity and trade flows, gained as much as 0.2 percent before a report that will probably confirm U.S. economic growth accelerated in the first quarter.

Goldman Forecasts
Gold for August delivery lost as much as 2.6 percent to $1,242.60 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects the metal to end this year at $1,300, paring a previous estimate of $1,435, according to a June 23 report.
Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest bullion-backed ETP, fell to 969.5 metric tons yesterday, and are 28 percent lower this year. Total ETP holdings are heading for a sixth monthly contraction.

Analysts from Morgan Stanley to Credit Suisse Group AG cut their gold forecasts this week as bullion heads for its biggest annual decline since 1981. Morgan Stanley lowered its 2013 target to $1,409 from $1,487, while Credit Suisse expects prices at $1,150 in 12 months.

Cash silver traded at $18.9430 an ounce, 33 percent lower this quarter. The metal is the worst performer this year on the Standard & Poor GSCI Spot Index of raw materials.

Spot platinum fell 1.5 percent to $1,330.95 an ounce. Palladium dropped 0.8 percent to $660.45 an ounce.

By Glenys Sim on June 26, 2013
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-25/gold-heads-for-worst-quarter-since-at-least-1968-as-demand-ebbs

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:

In June 2012 they predicted the prices can reach 2115 if it go upwards  or 1250 if go down by studying the above triangle.

Thereafter the downward movement has happened and a new triangle is being formed during march and June 2013  between 1600 and 1370.

Hence the prices can go down even below 1250.

Gold ‘Triangle’ Signals Price Drop to $1,250: Technical Analysis Nygold
.
.

Gold ‘Triangle’ Signals Price Drop to $1,250: Technical Analysis Au0182nys

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