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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Hemas Power – Best pick in the Power Generation Sector?

Hemas Power – Best pick in the Power Generation Sector?

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hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
About a year back, I commented/published in this forum why we should not look at power generating and rubber sectors for investing.  Power was overlooked because of the prevailed drought and rubber was due to declining prices. On these two sectors, there’s no clear indication of appreciating of the rubber prices yet though it seem to be stable. On the other hand, power generating sector is getting attractive.


Why?


Sri Lanka is having four main rain seasons.

1.       First Inter monsoon Season - March - April

2.       Southwest monsoon season - May - September

3.       Second Inter monsoon season - October - November

4.       Northeast Monsoon season - December – February



We had a good north east monsoon season towards end of last year and in January this year, a very productive first inter monsoon season and now we are into a good southwest monsoon season. So we are experiencing three consecutive rainy seasons after several years. This will definitely benefit hydro power generation in next two quarters as well.



I have analyzed the sector on three aspects, Price Earnings ratio, Price to Book Value and Dividend yield. In all three indicators, Hemas Power is trading at 50% discount to the sector. 




  • ·         HPWR is continuously in expansion mood. Will increase local power generating capacity by taking the control of PAP or managing PAP as largest shareholder. Numbers of projects are in the pre-development stage in locally and East African countries.


  • ·         In falling interest rate scenario, a dividend yield of 7%+ would be very attractive. In the past company maintained the dividend policy intact with new project developments and acquisitions.


  • ·         Share is trading almost 50% discount to the sector, based on forward PE, PBV ratios and Dividend yield wise.


  • ·         HPWR is a very good defensive share in volatile market conditions.



See the articles in research section.


Hemas Power – Best pick in the Power Generation Sector?

http://research.srilankaequity.com/t746-hemas-power-best-pick-in-the-power-generation-sector#851


Valuation Guide to Power Sector

http://research.srilankaequity.com/t740-valuation-guide-to-power-sector

sharekhan

sharekhan
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Yes The Whole Power Sector Is Actually Attractive........

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Although you say it is the Best Pick and talk about rains, Hydro power was just 4 % of the revenue of Hemas Power. (2013)

They are still a thermal power company. Slight movement of the prices of furnace oil can shake that type of company.  Active RainGod = worst enemy of the thermal power people.  

In 2013 they burnt huge 5 billion rupees to generate 5.3 billion revenue from thermal and got 193 million  profit. Hydro power generated was  221miilion and gave a profit of  154 million.

Although HydroP generated only 4 % of the revenue the profit from Hydropower was 36% of the total. 

In other words they can close down thermal and go ahead with Hydro  and that makes it  a best pick ?. 

My question is , what will happen to their heavy asset load of thermal plants - Heladhanavi ? ( approx 2 billion with a 1 billion interest paying loan )    if the Govt reduces  buying thermal power due to increase of rains ? I cannot figure out . 

Can they sell it to some other country without getting a big loss to the books? 
(Even they close down it they have to pay 1 billion loan interest.)



Last edited by Chinwi on Thu Jun 13, 2013 3:27 pm; edited 2 times in total

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
There were some discussions few weeks back about this sector. Isn't Hemas Power more thermal power oriented. If so don't they face a risk of discontinuation of  their supply agreement with CEB? 
I think that's why they are looking for new business avenues in African region. (SundayTimes reported couple of week back)

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Leon wrote:I think that's why they are looking for new business avenues in African region. (SundayTimes reported couple of week back)



Absolutely .

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
best pick in power ...what do you think of TKYO ?10 and 6 mw biomass and planing another.no rain ,no fuel,no worries  -uninterrupted power generation,higher rates per unit....what else you what from p.generating company?

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@celtic tiger,

There is  big operational problem with biomass system eroding the profits. I do not know how they overcome this. 

 You need  uninterrupted supply of heavy load of burning material to the plant. 

When you have a big production capacity like TKYOs,
the radius of biomaterial supply become higher and transport cost increase to considerable level as a result. You have to burn lot of diesel to transport the loads of biomass and finally you burn lot of non-renewable fuel  to get the power from your renewable source. 

Cutting and loading  of Gliricidia ( if they use it) also need lot of man power. 
Removing the loads of carbon residue after burning is also time consuming.  

We have to see how they balance these costs to get a decent profit.  

For Hydropower rain Gods do lot of things free of charge. 

--

I salute late Dr. Ray Wijewardene for his studies and efforts taken to show and teach  us about biomass power using his small dendro plant installed in his coconut estate.

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi,

What do you think about latest Q results of HPFL, it is not good as expected?

Although the last quarter is really good for almost all hydro power reservations, there is a significant loss in HPFL accounts even you remove CER adjustment.


I am waiting to see their AR to see the progress of two new plants. According to the last AR, two new plants were at ‘Onna Menna’ situation to start the operation.

nalaka_sg


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
VLL good. last year dividend 0.50 ...now trading 3.6 to 3.7, not bad dividend for that price. may be price will drop somore  if the market goes down.

but when yearend we can have good dividend and gain from shares..

need you comments
Idea

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@nalaka_sg wrote:VLL good. last year dividend 0.50 ...now trading 3.6 to 3.7, not bad dividend for that price. may be price will drop somore  if the market goes down.

but when yearend we can have good dividend and gain from shares..

need you comments
Idea

Dividend was 0.05.  0.5 is a mistake.

nalaka_sg


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
CSE shows VLL dividend is RS 0.50 scratch
url=https://servimg.com/view/18201889/7]Hemas Power – Best pick in the Power Generation Sector? Vll13[/url]

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@nalaka_sg wrote:CSE shows VLL dividend is RS 0.50 scratch
url=https://servimg.com/view/18201889/7]Hemas Power – Best pick in the Power Generation Sector? Vll13[/url]

http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/5621353040041_455.pdf

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:
@nalaka_sg wrote:VLL good. last year dividend 0.50 ...now trading 3.6 to 3.7, not bad dividend for that price. may be price will drop somore  if the market goes down.

but when yearend we can have good dividend and gain from shares..

need you comments
Idea



Dividend was 0.05.  0.5 is a mistake.
In my complete analysis which you can access in the research section, I have taken care of dividend yield also. Nothing is closer to the DY of HPWR which is 7%. When considering any of the parameters, either PER, PBV and DY, the basic ratios that can be used to value companies and that can understand by average investors, HPWR is trading at a 50% discount to the sector.
 
I think it's quite unfortunate by the forum members, that people who have commented negatively haven't given any fundamental reason for their thoughts within the parameters that I have taken. All the risks they are talking are common to all the companies engaged in power generation. In fact, exposure to the thermal power is a blessing unique to HPWR. We have seen this in throughout 2012, when other companies reported negative earnings due to drought, HPWR always stood with considerable profits so with a stable share price than the others.
 
What I am trying to discuss here is “Is HPWR the best company among Power generation sector in CSE?" Is it the best option for investors who want have some exposure to the sector, which can generate attractive results in the short term?
 
Actually it’s the only diversified power generating company in CSE with exposure to both thermal and hydro and with a very competent and trustworthy management under Hemas.
 
Some body has mentioned about the risk in thermal power for which HPWR has considerable exposure. I don’t think there’s any risk till 2016, which is the earliest possible date for next coal power plant. Practically it will go beyond 2016. So it’s not possible to disconnect thermal power plants till then as we have exhausted all mega hydro power resources. Even if we consider that risk, HPWR is out of danger as its plant is more cost effective than the others.
 
Discussing further, I have not suggested this as a long term investment. In my analysis I am clearly talking about the next two quarters. Investors can re-evaluate HPWR considering the prevailing rain fall pattern then.
 
If I am coming to my case again,
 
 
Is HPWR the best company among Power generating sector in CSE?

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:@celtic tiger,

There is  big operational problem with biomass system eroding the profits. I do not know how they overcome this. 

 You need  uninterrupted supply of heavy load of burning material to the plant. 

When you have a big production capacity like TKYOs,
the radius of biomaterial supply become higher and transport cost increase to considerable level as a result. You have to burn lot of diesel to transport the loads of biomass and finally you burn lot of non-renewable fuel  to get the power from your renewable source. 

Cutting and loading  of Gliricidia ( if they use it) also need lot of man power. 
Removing the loads of carbon residue after burning is also time consuming.  

We have to see how they balance these costs to get a decent profit.  

For Hydropower rain Gods do lot of things free of charge. 

--

I salute late Dr. Ray Wijewardene for his studies and efforts taken to show and teach  us about biomass power using his small dendro plant installed in his coconut estate.


thanks chinwi.
Is any body know the cost of production per unit of biomass ?

Light of Hope


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
One of their expired contracts was put on hold without renewal. What happen to that?

I doubt that this is the best pick...

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@hariesha wrote:When considering any of the parameters, either PER, PBV and DY, the basic ratios that can be used to value companies and that can understand by average investors, HPWR is trading at a 50% discount to the sector.

You are correct. Unfortunately, there could be a good reason for that. 

Buying this share means you are investing  in thermal power. 
Can anybody think of any firm or any fund allocate or raise money to build a thermal power plant at this moment ?

I am not criticizing your work. 
There is a big uncertainty about the future of this thermal business at this juncture and that is reflected in the trading price.

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@celtic tiger wrote:Is any body know the cost of production per unit of biomass ?

ඒක  වෙනස් වෙනවා .

ඔබට අක්කර 10-50 ක් වගේ වත්තක් තියෙනවා නම් ඉන්දියාවෙන් මිලියන් කිහිපයකට කුඩා දෙන්ද්රෝ යුනිට් එකක් ගෙන්න පුළුවන්. 
වත්තේ වැඩ කරන මිනිස්සු අමතර වෙලාවට ග්ලිරිසීඩියා හිටවන්න , කපන්න , ගොන් බැඳී කරත්තෙකින් ගෙන්න යොදා ගන්න පුළුවන්. එවිට් මේ සඳහා අමතර වැටුපක් වැය වෙන්නේ නැහැ . 
හැබැයි පුරුදු කල කාර්මිකයකු ගේ සේවය ගන්න වෙනවා උදුන හසුරුවන්න. 
ඉන් ලැබෙන විදුලියෙන් වත්තේ වතුර  මෝටර් දුවන්න ගෙවල් කිහිපයක් ආලෝක මත් කරන්න පුළුවන්. 
මෙවිට යුනිට් එකක මිල ඉතා අඩුයි. හැබැයි  පිටට විකුනන්න තරම් නිෂ්පාදනය ක් නැහැ.

වාණිජ නිෂ්පාදනයට නම් සැහෙන දර සැපයුමක් අවශ්‍යයි . ඒ සඳහා මා පෙර  කිවූ ලෙස වියදම් යනවා. උදුන ලොකු වෙන්න ලොකු වෙන්න දර වඩාත් දුර පෙදෙස් වලින් ගෙන්න වෙනවා . එවිට ඒ අනුව ඒකකයක වියදම වැඩි වෙනවා . 
මා  හිතන්නේ කිලෝ මීටර් 5- 7 තමයි පාඩු නැතුව යන්න පුළුවන් උපරිම දුර . 

මේ බයෝ මාස් ගැන අහන දකින කොට ආස හිතුනට මෙය හිතන තරම් ලෙහෙසි දෙයක් නොවේ. මහා කරදර වැඩක්.
ජල විදුලිය නම් නිෂ්පාදනය පටන් ගත්තට පස්සේ නියමිත නඩත්තු වැඩ කරගෙන ගියාම හරි . බයෝ මැස් වැඩේට මිනිස් බලය ඉන්වොල්ව්මන්ට් එක වැඩියි. දිනපතා පාලනය ඔලුවේ කැක්කුමක් වෙන්න පුළුවන් . 
 ගස් ඉබේ  වැවුනට දිනපතා ඒවා කපන්න , වාහන වලට  පටවන්න ,  ප්‍රවාහනය  කරන්න  , ගබඩා කරන්න, උදුනට යවන්න , අළු අස්  කරන්න මිනිස්සු අවශ්‍යයි. ඔවුන් බොහෝ වෙලාවට අධික රස්නේ ඇති දවල් කාලයේ ක්ෂේත්‍රයේ වැඩ කරන්නේ නැහැ. ගස්  යටට වෙලා ඉන්නවා. නමුත්  වැටුප් ගෙවිය යුතුයි. වාහන , ට්‍රැක්ටර් කිහිපයක් වත් රියදුරන් සමග නිතිපතා වෙන්කිරීම අවශ්‍යයි.  අධික වැසි සමයට දර සප්ලයි එක හිඟ වෙනවා . ගෙනාවත් තෙත නිසා වේලෙන්න තියන්න වෙනවා. ඒ නිසා සැහෙන විශාල ගබඩා  ද අවශ්‍යයි. මේ සියල්ල දිනපතා මැනේජ් කරන්න වෙනම නිලධාරී මණ්ඩලයක්  අවශ්‍යයි. (ඔය සුළුවෙන් ලිව්වේ. මේක කියවන කොටත් ඔලුවේ කැක්කුම හැදෙනවා නේද ? Smile )

 දැනට මේ ලෙස විදුලිය නිපදවන සමාගම් තියෙනවා. එහි යුනිට් එකක ප්‍රයෝගික වියදම නම් දන්නේ නැහැ ..

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@seek wrote:@Chinwi,

What do you think about latest Q results of HPFL, it is not good as expected?

Although the last quarter is really good for almost all hydro power reservations, there is a significant loss in HPFL accounts even you remove CER adjustment.


I am waiting to see their AR to see the progress of two new plants. According to the last AR, two new plants were at ‘Onna Menna’ situation to start the operation.


I have the same question. 
For each year their cost of production was around 40 million for past many years. This is very high compared to others. With Admin expenses , to have profit they need revenue well over 65 m. 

This time Y/Y revenue was just 52 million. 

In 2010/11 they reported 135 million and thus a profit of 70 million. 
My arg is if they got 135 in 2010 they have to get at least 200 - 250 in future with the new plants. 
I have no news about the commissioning of the new plants.

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Seems to be the time is coming to off load the collected stuff. What a drama by bunch of foxes.

lakymahesh


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Redbulls wrote:Seems to be the time is coming to off load the collected stuff. What a drama by bunch of foxes.



The more u read the more you want to buy . . . i've did my reading, dwldd sm PDF's of HPWR and its not a BAD share, given the price, dividend yield  . . . i wudnt mind about this 2016 cos surely im not gonna hold it untill then . . .

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