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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Hemas Power – Best pick in the Power Generation Sector?

Hemas Power – Best pick in the Power Generation Sector?

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Chinwi


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@hariesha wrote:When considering any of the parameters, either PER, PBV and DY, the basic ratios that can be used to value companies and that can understand by average investors, HPWR is trading at a 50% discount to the sector.

You are correct. Unfortunately, there could be a good reason for that. 

Buying this share means you are investing  in thermal power. 
Can anybody think of any firm or any fund allocate or raise money to build a thermal power plant at this moment ?

I am not criticizing your work. 
There is a big uncertainty about the future of this thermal business at this juncture and that is reflected in the trading price.

Chinwi


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@celtic tiger wrote:Is any body know the cost of production per unit of biomass ?

ඒක  වෙනස් වෙනවා .

ඔබට අක්කර 10-50 ක් වගේ වත්තක් තියෙනවා නම් ඉන්දියාවෙන් මිලියන් කිහිපයකට කුඩා දෙන්ද්රෝ යුනිට් එකක් ගෙන්න පුළුවන්. 
වත්තේ වැඩ කරන මිනිස්සු අමතර වෙලාවට ග්ලිරිසීඩියා හිටවන්න , කපන්න , ගොන් බැඳී කරත්තෙකින් ගෙන්න යොදා ගන්න පුළුවන්. එවිට් මේ සඳහා අමතර වැටුපක් වැය වෙන්නේ නැහැ . 
හැබැයි පුරුදු කල කාර්මිකයකු ගේ සේවය ගන්න වෙනවා උදුන හසුරුවන්න. 
ඉන් ලැබෙන විදුලියෙන් වත්තේ වතුර  මෝටර් දුවන්න ගෙවල් කිහිපයක් ආලෝක මත් කරන්න පුළුවන්. 
මෙවිට යුනිට් එකක මිල ඉතා අඩුයි. හැබැයි  පිටට විකුනන්න තරම් නිෂ්පාදනය ක් නැහැ.

වාණිජ නිෂ්පාදනයට නම් සැහෙන දර සැපයුමක් අවශ්‍යයි . ඒ සඳහා මා පෙර  කිවූ ලෙස වියදම් යනවා. උදුන ලොකු වෙන්න ලොකු වෙන්න දර වඩාත් දුර පෙදෙස් වලින් ගෙන්න වෙනවා . එවිට ඒ අනුව ඒකකයක වියදම වැඩි වෙනවා . 
මා  හිතන්නේ කිලෝ මීටර් 5- 7 තමයි පාඩු නැතුව යන්න පුළුවන් උපරිම දුර . 

මේ බයෝ මාස් ගැන අහන දකින කොට ආස හිතුනට මෙය හිතන තරම් ලෙහෙසි දෙයක් නොවේ. මහා කරදර වැඩක්.
ජල විදුලිය නම් නිෂ්පාදනය පටන් ගත්තට පස්සේ නියමිත නඩත්තු වැඩ කරගෙන ගියාම හරි . බයෝ මැස් වැඩේට මිනිස් බලය ඉන්වොල්ව්මන්ට් එක වැඩියි. දිනපතා පාලනය ඔලුවේ කැක්කුමක් වෙන්න පුළුවන් . 
 ගස් ඉබේ  වැවුනට දිනපතා ඒවා කපන්න , වාහන වලට  පටවන්න ,  ප්‍රවාහනය  කරන්න  , ගබඩා කරන්න, උදුනට යවන්න , අළු අස්  කරන්න මිනිස්සු අවශ්‍යයි. ඔවුන් බොහෝ වෙලාවට අධික රස්නේ ඇති දවල් කාලයේ ක්ෂේත්‍රයේ වැඩ කරන්නේ නැහැ. ගස්  යටට වෙලා ඉන්නවා. නමුත්  වැටුප් ගෙවිය යුතුයි. වාහන , ට්‍රැක්ටර් කිහිපයක් වත් රියදුරන් සමග නිතිපතා වෙන්කිරීම අවශ්‍යයි.  අධික වැසි සමයට දර සප්ලයි එක හිඟ වෙනවා . ගෙනාවත් තෙත නිසා වේලෙන්න තියන්න වෙනවා. ඒ නිසා සැහෙන විශාල ගබඩා  ද අවශ්‍යයි. මේ සියල්ල දිනපතා මැනේජ් කරන්න වෙනම නිලධාරී මණ්ඩලයක්  අවශ්‍යයි. (ඔය සුළුවෙන් ලිව්වේ. මේක කියවන කොටත් ඔලුවේ කැක්කුම හැදෙනවා නේද ? Smile )

 දැනට මේ ලෙස විදුලිය නිපදවන සමාගම් තියෙනවා. එහි යුනිට් එකක ප්‍රයෝගික වියදම නම් දන්නේ නැහැ ..

Chinwi


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@seek wrote:@Chinwi,

What do you think about latest Q results of HPFL, it is not good as expected?

Although the last quarter is really good for almost all hydro power reservations, there is a significant loss in HPFL accounts even you remove CER adjustment.


I am waiting to see their AR to see the progress of two new plants. According to the last AR, two new plants were at ‘Onna Menna’ situation to start the operation.


I have the same question. 
For each year their cost of production was around 40 million for past many years. This is very high compared to others. With Admin expenses , to have profit they need revenue well over 65 m. 

This time Y/Y revenue was just 52 million. 

In 2010/11 they reported 135 million and thus a profit of 70 million. 
My arg is if they got 135 in 2010 they have to get at least 200 - 250 in future with the new plants. 
I have no news about the commissioning of the new plants.

Redbulls


Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Seems to be the time is coming to off load the collected stuff. What a drama by bunch of foxes.

lakymahesh


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Redbulls wrote:Seems to be the time is coming to off load the collected stuff. What a drama by bunch of foxes.



The more u read the more you want to buy . . . i've did my reading, dwldd sm PDF's of HPWR and its not a BAD share, given the price, dividend yield  . . . i wudnt mind about this 2016 cos surely im not gonna hold it untill then . . .

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Redbulls wrote:Seems to be the time is coming to off load the collected stuff. What a drama by bunch of foxes.

I don’t want to be a fox. I think it is better to keep silent.

Jeremy

Jeremy
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
How can a thermal power plant be the best power plant????

wappula

wappula
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:Although you say it is the Best Pick and talk about rains, Hydro power was just 4 % of the revenue of Hemas Power. (2013)

They are still a thermal power company. Slight movement of the prices of furnace oil can shake that type of company.  Active RainGod = worst enemy of the thermal power people.  

In 2013 they burnt huge 5 billion rupees to generate 5.3 billion revenue from thermal and got 193 million  profit. Hydro power generated was  221miilion and gave a profit of  154 million.

Although HydroP generated only 4 % of the revenue the profit from Hydropower was 36% of the total. 

In other words they can close down thermal and go ahead with Hydro  and that makes it  a best pick ?. 

My question is , what will happen to their heavy asset load of thermal plants - Heladhanavi ? ( approx 2 billion with a 1 billion interest paying loan )    if the Govt reduces  buying thermal power due to increase of rains ? I cannot figure out . 

Can they sell it to some other country without getting a big loss to the books? 
(Even they close down it they have to pay 1 billion loan interest.)


thank you, chinwi you do the best in everytime.

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