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කොළඔ කොටස් වෙළඳපොළේ වංශකථාව
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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Interest rates down and CFVF

Interest rates down and CFVF

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21Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Thu Jun 20, 2013 8:15 am

Child


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
When dividends declare ?

22Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Thu Jun 20, 2013 8:39 am

suja


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Malanp, We should not go by hints. We need to understand the business first before investing. Please read my mails before if you wish to get some idea. CFVF is cyclical business which is tied to the interest rates of the country. My question was if the company has done well last FY will they pay a devident as they have paid a RS.2 last year when they were not doing well.

Also understand the parent CSEC and the holding of individual shareholders and comments they have made in the annual report.

23Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Thu Jun 20, 2013 9:58 am

malanp


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Suja

I think CFVF business model is little complex.

a detail study is required to assess the future, how they earn interest, pay interest and how it is affected by the change of interest rate, up or down.

there was a thread on cfvf and rainmaker mentioned how they do business, if you have time just search and read it.

24Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Thu Jun 20, 2013 10:49 am

Backstage


Moderator
Moderator
My understanding from what Chinwi and Alchemist have posted in earlier thread is that its profitability is invariably  tied with the interest rate cycle. And every few years the all the factors come together that enables CFVF to cash in. If market sentiments are also positive it adds more potential to the upside of the price. So as with cyclic stocks you enter when the said conditions are  coming together and exit when it starts to peak, not hold for more profits in the future.
However my understanding is that its portfolio mix of bills and bonds is much the same as it was when they made a packet in the last cycle, but was wondering if Rainmakers was hinting that it was not so.

25Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Thu Jun 20, 2013 11:35 am

Chinwi


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
As you are talking much about this share may I contribute what I think; Just what I think only.
 
මට නම් දැනෙන විදියට dropping interest rates  next year - CFVF සඳහා යහපත් වෙනු ඇත.
 
 " Low interest rates have an impact on CFVFs ability to create profit next year. " මේ කියන දේ එලෙසම පිළිගත නොහැක
 නමුත් වෙන කතාවක් ඇත .
 
විස්තරය:
 
CFVF දැනට  තමන් සතු  බොන්ඩ් / බිල්  අයිතියෙන් 60% ක්ම ගත්තේ පසු ගිය මාස 12 තුල දිය .  ( ඒවා මැදි කාලින ඒවා යයි උපකල්පනය කරමිපරණ පුරුද්දට අනුව ඉන් බාගයක් වත් මැදිදිගුකාලින බොන්ඩ් වේඑනම්  තව  කාර්තු කිහිපයක් යනතෙක් වත් එම බොන්ඩ් ප්රතිලාභ අගය නොවෙනස්ව ලැබේ. මේ වසරේ හා ලබන වසරේ  පොලි අනුපාත අඩු වුව හොත් ඔවුන ගත්  ණය  සඳහා ගෙවන පොලිය ක්රමයෙන් අඩුවන බැවින් ඉදිරි වසර 2013/14 පාඩු නොව වාසි දායක වේ. එම නිසා “dropping interest rates  next year “ - CFVF සඳහා යහපත් වෙනු ඇත.
 
 ඉන්පසු නැවත අනාගතයේදී නියමාකාර ලෙස පොලි අනුපාත ඉහල යනවිට එයට මුහුණ දීමේ හැකියාව ඔවුන් සතු විය යුතුය. කල් පිරෙන බොන්ඩ් මුදල් වලින්  ණය ගෙවා නැවත ඉහල පොලියට ණය (Repo) හා අඩු ප්රතිලාභ සහිත භාණ්ඩාගාර බිල් නොගෙන සිටීම එක පියවරකි. 2011 දී  මෙසේ සිදු කෙරිණි . දස අවුරුදු ප්රගතිය බලන්න
 
කෙසේ වුවත්  2009 කාලයේ ලත් අත් දැකීම එලෙසින්ම මෙවර බලාපොරොත්තු වීමට හැකිදැයි සැක සහිතය . 2007/8 තිබු ඉහල භාණ්ඩාගාර බිල්පත්  පොලි අනුපාතයේ (19%<)   සිට 2009/10 දක්වා දක්නට ලැබුණු වූ බැංකු පොලි අනුපාත වල දැවැන්ත  අඩුවීම මෙවර ඇති නොවේ.  එලෙස අඩුවීමට තරම් ඉහල පොලි අනුපාතයක් නොපැවතුනු බැවිනි.   අනුව  බලාපොරොත්තු අදායම් ගණනය කිරීම නුවනට හුරුය. 2008/9 කාලයේ නිකුත් කල ඉහල ප්රතිලාභ සහිත දිගු කාලින බොන්ඩ් උපරිමය 4 වසර ඒව බැවින් දැන් ඒවා කල් පිරි හමාරය . (නමුත් ඔවුන් 2009   පෙර  කාලයේ ගත 20% වැනි  දිගු කාලින බොන්ඩ් සැහෙන ප්රමාණයක් තවදුරටත් නොමැරී පවතී නම් මෙම උපකල්පනය වෙනස් වන අතර ඉන් ඉදිරි වසර කිහිපය තුල සැහෙන ලාබයක් ලබා ගනු ඇත.) මහබැංකු වාර්තා පරිශීලනයෙන් එවැනි නිකුතු ගැන නිවැරදිව සොයා ගැනීමට මා හට අපහසු විය .
 
එම නිසා  මේ  rainmaker කියන්න තැත්කළ දෙයෙහි නියම අරුත දැනගත යුත්තේ විශේෂයෙන් නව ආයෝජකයින් නොව 2008/9 කාලය තුල ලැබූ  අත්දැකීම් මත යලිත් එවැනිම අධික ලාබ අපේක්ෂිතව සිහින මවමින් ඉන්න අය ය.  ( 2010 dividend > 2009 traded price !) 
 
2013  CFVF නිසැකවම හොඳින්  ලාබ ලබන අතර සැහෙන ලාබ බෙදීමක් ලබා දෙනු ඇත.  නමුත් පොලි අනුපාත වල අඩුවීම කලින් වාරයේ මෙන්  විශාල බලපෑමක් කරන මට්ටමක නැති නිසා අදායම් ප්රතිශතය අනුපාත වෙනසට සාපේක්ෂව පමණක්  අපේක්ෂා කල යුතුය.  එසේ සිද්ධ වන්නේ පොලිය අඩුවීම නිසා නොව අඩුවීමට කලින් මේ වර ලොකු පොලියක් දෙන බිල්පත් මිලට ගැනීමට නොතිබුන නිසාය. මෙය වඩාත්ම බල පාන්නේ 2014  හා ඉන්  පසුව විය හැක.
 
එම නිසා , මට නම් දැනෙන විදියට “dropping interest rates  next year” - CFVF සඳහා යහපත් වෙනු ඇති නමුත් එම අඩුවීම විශාල පරාසයක නැති බැවින් දැවැන්ත ලාබයක් අපේක්ෂා කිරීම දැනට ඇති දත්ත අනුව අපහසුය
 
 නමුත්  ඔවුනගේ වෙනත් ව්යාපාර මගින් එන ලාභයේ වැඩිවීමක් අපේක්ෂා කරන අතර ඉන් යහපත් බලපෑමක් ලැබිමෙන් හා වෙනත් ආයෝජන  වල අගය වැඩිවීම , දැනට නොගෙන සිටින ලාබ (unrealized) ඉදිරියේදී ගෙන  පෙන්වීම් යනාදිය නිසා අවසාන ලාභය අප නොසිතු ලෙස ඉහල යාමටද අවස්ථාව ඇත.
 Note:
නවතම කාර්තුවේ ලාභය අප නොසිතු තරම් විය.  
පසුගිය කාර්තුවේ (2013 Jan-Mar)කොටසක ඉපයීම EPS (1   3 කොටස් බෙදීමට පෙර සැලකුවහොත්) 2.61 x  3 = Rs. 7.80 .   මෙය අති සාර්ථක වූ 2010 සමස්ත වසරේ EPS අදායමින් 45% කි. (Rs. 17.40)
 
 
 ---
 
@ UKBoy , Thanks.
 

@ pathfinder , got it ?

26Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Thu Jun 20, 2013 11:54 am

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
Got it.

ඔවුනගේ වෙනත් ව්යාපාර මගින් එන ලාභයේ ?

27Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Thu Jun 20, 2013 12:32 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Backstage wrote:Got it.

ඔවුනගේ වෙනත් ව්යාපාර මගින් එන ලාභයේ ?


In 2011 share trading profit 180 million 2012 zero, 2012 Margin trading income 113 million.
No data for this year.
With the arrival of new CEO they are changing their business formation.  They are diverting their interests to other ventures. Within next few years bond trading will become only a part of their business.

28Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Thu Jun 20, 2013 12:45 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
Thanks Chinwi that's very interesting. Is there any truth to the story that the whole group is re structuring soon ?

29Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Thu Jun 20, 2013 10:18 pm

pathfinder

pathfinder
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi-thanks for your valuable comment.

My broker told me cfvf is going to invest in a leather company soon,so the dividened might not be so high.please check with your broker.

30Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Thu Jun 20, 2013 10:51 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Backstage wrote:Thanks Chinwi that's very interesting. Is there any truth to the story that the whole group is re structuring soon ?


@pathfinder wrote:@Chinwi-thanks for your valuable comment.

My broker told me cfvf is going to invest in a leather company soon,so the dividend might not be so high.please check with your broker.


They should invest in other things due to the cyclic nature of TB business. I also heard about some positive changes. No direct info yet.

If low dividends this time, I like it. Actually from the beginning I did not go after dividends. I am a long term investor and I hate big % of dividends/profit.
I want small and medium size companies with good abilities to invest more in their proven businesses and achieve growth for us. That way we get more return than from dividends and we can have fair number of shares in highly valued companies in years to come. Then they can give better dividends without affecting its growth .

31Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:56 am

zenobia


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
agree with you chinwi
some collectors of this share at least to my knowledge did so for its long term growth potential than for it's possible spectacular divident and then throw it away

32Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Fri Jun 21, 2013 10:28 am

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@pathfinder wrote:@Chinwi-thanks for your valuable comment.

My broker told me cfvf is going to invest in a leather company soon,so the dividened might not be so high.please check with your broker.
Is this leather company CLPL in which owner is GREG? CFVF bought DNH securities from GREG recently.

33Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Fri Jun 21, 2013 11:04 am

pathfinder

pathfinder
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@econ-it's not a listed company.

34Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Sat Jun 22, 2013 9:56 am

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@pathfinder
If the news is true, it will done through CSEC.

35Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Sat Jun 22, 2013 9:07 pm

sandunj


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Feel, it will come down further. Waiting to buy below 16...

36Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Tue Jun 25, 2013 3:08 pm

Takecharge


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
price is at 19.20 now, up from 17.60, reason ?

37Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Tue Jun 25, 2013 3:11 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
Look at the heading Smile

38Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Tue Jun 25, 2013 3:12 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Look outside. ... it does not rain .... but when it does it pours Razz

39Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Tue Jun 25, 2013 3:23 pm

Takecharge


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@sandunj wrote:Feel, it will come down further. Waiting to buy below 16...
it did not and i sold some at 18 just before it moved to 19.20  Evil or Very Mad



Last edited by Takecharge on Tue Jun 25, 2013 3:58 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : word)

40Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Tue Jun 25, 2013 6:20 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Takecharge wrote:
@sandunj wrote:Feel, it will come down further. Waiting to buy below 16...
it did not and i sold some at 18 just before it moved to 19.20  Evil or Very Mad

That happens.. Today some heavy trading under the guise of market down..

41Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Tue Jun 25, 2013 6:44 pm

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think now is not the time to sell CFVF, probably the time to buy

42Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Tue Jun 25, 2013 9:19 pm

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Backstage wrote:Us lay folk have to keep reading between the lines to decipher to riddles of the knowledgeable ones. Some talk straight up (Slstock, Chinwi, Antonym,Stumpy,Arena,Alchemist,Gann,Sriranga ect)
Others are trying to work out their growing up issues by teasing people with less knowledge.
Just an observation, I am not bitter, but trying to read between the lines, as knowledge, whatever the packaging is still knowledge.   Smile


Some talk straight up (Slstock, Chinwi, Antonym,Stumpy,Arena,Alchemist,Gann,Sriranga ect)


I salute you Backstage... I am happy and with you for this saying...!!!
hip hip hurry!!!!.......Slstock, Chinwi, Antonym,Stumpy,Arena,Alchemist,Gann,Sriranga ect I love you

43Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Tue Jun 25, 2013 9:24 pm

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Today! I sold all my stock of CFVF over 25k @19/-
Hope to catch it again between 17-18 reasonably.....
within next week time.....!!!
Lets see...
otherwise... i will say... i got down from the TRAIN... BIT EARLY!


GL!

44Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Tue Jun 25, 2013 9:59 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator
Most probably some good news has already been leaked to the brokers.

45Interest rates down and CFVF - Page 2 Empty Re: Interest rates down and CFVF Wed Jun 26, 2013 1:48 am

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
It's look like CFVF broke the 18 barrier and could reach 20 with less selling presser.parent could follow the child to reach 16-17. But overall market sentiment does not support this trend and that is the sad side of the story for us( still in the train).
If ASPI can keep it's nose above the water(above 6000) CFVF will not comes under huge selling presser,hope for the best!!!

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