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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Market to rebound in 2H, ASI to hit 9000,

Market to rebound in 2H, ASI to hit 9000,

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1Market to rebound in 2H, ASI to hit 9000,  Empty NDBS tips stock market upturn to persist Mon Jun 24, 2013 4:24 am

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
NDB Stockbrokers is forecasting the upturn in the stock market to persist aided by lower interest rates and improved corporate earnings.

“The ASPI has gained 28% since our review in May 2012. However, the rise in stock prices of 13% in 2013 (by end of May) is slightly ahead of our expectations. Accordingly we expect a lower rate of appreciation of stock prices in 2013H2 compared to 2013H1. We remain optimistic regarding the prospects in the equity market in 2014 on the premise the interest rates would ease resulting in improved corporate profitability and attraction of investors to equities (from fixed income investments). Therefore, we maintain the bull-run would continue in 2014 to reach our ASPI target of 9,000,” NDBS said in its latest Sri Lanka Equities report.

“We expect a modest increase in profits of 10% to 15% for 2013. With the pickup in economic activity and lower interest rates we expect a robust growth in profits of 20% in 2014. According to our estimates, the broad market is currently trading at a forward P/E of 12x based on 2013 expected earnings. We feel it is attractively priced compared to the regional equity markets considering the optimism and growth expectations in Sri Lanka over the next two to three years,” NDBS said. It also said as expected the market interest rates have come down in most commercial banks by 100 to 200 basis points in May 2013.

“We expect the private sector credit growth to be lower at 15% in 2013 compared to 18% in 2012. The anticipated reduction in the losses made by state owned enterprises (SOEs) and the attempt to reduce budget deficit may contain the demand for credit from Government entities. However, due to the high debt service obligations in 2013 we expect robust Government borrowing,” the company said.

“Accordingly, we do not foresee further significant reductions in interest rates in the short term. Since the government debt service obligations are comparatively less in 2014 further reductions in interest rates could be expected by early 2014 (or late 2013),” NDBS added.

Noting that global bond and equities runs may slow down, the broking firm said the interest rates in USA were maintained at historical lows since 2011 to revive the economy. Therefore, the interest rates were exceptionally low in most parts of the world. Interest rates have gained since May 2013 with the assumption that USA would scale down quantitative easing programs in view of the improving economic conditions (continuing the program eternally was not sustainable).

The global equities which were on a run from 2012 slowed down significantly in May simultaneously. “We do not expect an increase in global interest rates to have a significant upward pressure on local interest rates since the domestic market interest rates are around 5% to 10% higher than global interest rates (and also because the capital account is not fully liberalised). Accordingly, only a steep rise in global interest rates would have an upward pressure on the domestic interest rates,” NDBS said.
http://www.ft.lk/2013/06/24/ndbs-tips-stock-market-upturn-to-persist/

Mahawawtta


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Source daily mirror on 24th June 2013, your comments please

Jiggysaurus

Jiggysaurus
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
If the dailymirror says then it must be true. But since it's a mirror 9 might be actually a 6 so better clarify.

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
A fool never changes his ways ..... can they honestly say that CDIC is worth 450 Razz

With low interest rates private credit growth will increase.

Santa

Santa
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
If it is to hit 9000 in the 2H, a lot of companies need to do really well, maintaining there P/E ratios. Can't predict anything, since anything can happen. 

Most of us need to be careful with regard to speculation and invest with a long term plan in mind.

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
There were several topics in this forum referring to a Daily FT article. 
 
I thought to publish the full research published by NDBS in last week for the benefit of our forum members. 
 
This is a good article to read during this frustrating period, more importantly, to the new comers. 
 

I invite all those who haven’t got the report, to download and read it fully. A really good unbiased report.


http://research.srilankaequity.com/t759-asi-will-pass-9000-shortly-ndb

stockmania

stockmania
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Even ASI goto 10000 we can't expect all shares will go up. Some poor IPO Shares didn't go up (SHL, FLCH, EXPO, HVA etc) in recent rallies. they only fall down more

Aubrey Perera


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
When the CSE reached it's all time high of 7500 in 2010 I believe, many predicted that it will surpass 9000 at that time...even leading stock brokers were openly holding seminars and canvassing investment showing the post war boom and up side ....the rest they say his history Smile

sharekhan

sharekhan
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
No need of hitting 9000........for time being  atleast HIT 6500

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Aubrey Perera wrote:When the CSE reached it's all time high of 7500 in 2010 I believe, many predicted that it will surpass 9000 at that time...even leading stock brokers were openly holding seminars and canvassing investment showing the post war boom and up side ....the rest they say his history Smile

Ha haa.. that awkward moment I remember some guy taught us how to do day trading and forget the fundamentas Laughing

I, mark, godswen and stumpy were at receiving end laughing..

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
ඔය කාන්ඩේ ඔය කතාව ඔයිට කලිනුත් කිව්වා 2011 විතර. Market එක නතර උනේ 4,800


පොඩි ගොන් Joke එකක් 

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Most important factors expectations and confidence of investors

Govt do not make genuine effort to improve these factors

Govt think they can manipulate any thing as they want

Business leaders make negative statement e.g. Chadra Jayaratne

People do not believe central bank statistics.
most of economists are highly confused
They can't make any prediction with confidence They do not know
what is correct and not correct
Most of ministers criticize govt and the family in private discussions and make
public statements apple polishing the FAMILY

Opposition is very week

Any scientific analysis technical,fundamental or any other can not be applied under present situation

wait and see

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
Heading is wrong. Read the article. 9000 in 2014 not 2h2013.

Santa

Santa
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
The question is, How can you predict and what do you consider to predict such a incraese.

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Santa wrote:The question is, How can you predict and what do you consider to predict such a incraese.

It's well explained in the article. Problem is most of the guys are reluctant to read.

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
exact opposite of what daily FT says can happen ?

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I am not sure to what level ASI will hit in next time...
but i feel August would be the month.....
to see next SHOW! alien

I feel we may have next 30 days to wait n see n collect your loved n preferred counters......
GOOD LUCK friend....... timely enter n collect your choice....don't be hurry...
hope we may have 30 more days to wait n collect!cat

manula


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@KDDND wrote:I am not sure to what level ASI will hit in next time...
but i feel August would be the month.....
to see next SHOW! alien

I feel we may have next 30 days to wait n see n collect your loved n preferred counters......
GOOD LUCK friend....... timely enter n collect your choice....don't be hurry...
hope we may have 30 more days to wait n collect!cat

How you say August will be the month??

econ

econ
Global Moderator
It is usually the super September.

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@manula wrote:
@KDDND wrote:I am not sure to what level ASI will hit in next time...
but i feel August would be the month.....
to see next SHOW! alien

I feel we may have next 30 days to wait n see n collect your loved n preferred counters......
GOOD LUCK friend....... timely enter n collect your choice....don't be hurry...
hope we may have 30 more days to wait n collect!cat

How you say August will be the month??

@manjula....

I just looked at the last one year ASI movement.....
based on that i decided.....
it has three cycle as I can see....
three peaks and three bottoms.....
accordingly next turn probably on August.......
may be by that time... quarters result going to be out????? i don't know about it....

This is how i think n planning...... for my next act....

* pls do your home work.. n decide GL!

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