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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Future at CSE

Future at CSE

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1Future at CSE Empty Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 6:43 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Forum :


Markets go through cycles

Somehow people find it hard to understand that concept.
This is more difficult specially if one looks though a short term mind set.

When market is overbought we worry. When it is over sold we worry. We always worry.
But some people will like RED days more than green ;-)  


Stop to  think and simply understand

* there are red periods and green period in market ( we can;t change them)  
* what kind of a person you are ? ( how much patience you have, are you investing for several years like an FD or like quick profit/loss with trading,  how much greed you have,do  you want to beat market everytime , can you not bear to see some short term unrealized loss? )


ASI:

ASI was 4700.  It went to 6000
Fell to 5300 then it went to 6500
 

Now it is falling again  and we are watching whether it will stay above 6000.
If it fall below 6000 short term people  can create panic and opportunities for others ;-)


At some point again it Will go over 6500 and over 7800 even !

When I do not  know as as none  has a  magic ball  to predict every macro/micro event and share  pushes by some parties.  All I know is it will pass 7800 at  some point again ( we may have a general/hopeful  idea here) As an investor be ready for it.

This is where patience comes in. Some people think they can outsmart market. Pick tops and bottoms all the time. Don;t try. You will fail at somepoint and miserably at that. Don't  look for concrete  answers in stock markets.

Sometimes it smarter  to go with the flow and not try to analyze market too much but capitalize on the  situation  if opportunity comes.


I repeat , we should understand

a)  the difference between short term trading and long term investment.
b)  market have cycles



Side track :

Isn;t it amazing how some people always pick the Red days after a peak  of a cycle ( ASI 6000 and 6500) to make an appearance in the forum and talk big . No help to the forum , no share discussions . 6 moth cycles they have to show up.   They never talk about when to buy  but   they say when to sell after they sold.
There quietly buy during  red periods  and then makes a reappearance you know when!
Oh yes such people  specially like to  critize others who actually have contributed to the forum.
I saw chinwi saying they are "Cardboard heros". That exactly what they are.  


From such people I ask a direct question  as  you seems to know all answers and are masters of the  trade.  (I  humbly say I am  not an expert .  I have made my mistakes but am much better than before)  

Take the challenge and answer and help people like us to learn from you. Can;t give vague answers as you know better than everyone else.

What level will ASI fall this time.
What time and shares should we buy and at what prices. Any estimates about their worth using analysis?  



My take

Investors :  

I already mentioned, I am collecting slowly ( my target  fundamental shares)   Don;t buy in big blocks and complain if share falls another 10%. Then you are not a patient investor  but  a trader worrying about short term. Don;t mix up the 2.

Buy little by little if you do.  

Short term people will ask why  buy  if you  think market will fall more?

Again don;t try to  outsmart the market.  You are not buying the whole market.
You are buying individual shares  and they can have life of their own. Who knows when they will trigger.  



Short term traders:

Wait for opportunities to come to you. Do not chase after shares  in REd markets. Do not try to catch falling knives.

I know lot of people did not take our warnings for SFS at Rs 6,  CIFL at Rs 9 and 6. TWOD for Rs 14, 8 etc. PCH when it was over Rs 10 etc etc  

But realize even crap at some point can now  give you short term trading opportunities.  They are not investment grade to me but trading grade. People like to talk high about a share after a run. But before that?

Look for opportunities after a big fall , being oversold  and wait for it come to you. Don;t hold onto fundamentally weak shares  for too long as they might never recover to their previous glory or who know what kind selling will trigger. ( when rights were fully subcribed for PCH at Rs3 few weeks ago many might not have expected for it to fall this low)


COMB falling to Rs 100 and TWOD falling to Rs 2 might be both opportunities but in different perspectives.


Finally,

ASI might fall another 100-200 points in short term panic? Who knows.

I really dont; care  as I look at Individual companies valuations etc. Atleast most my long term shares have/are paying me good dividends even if there is a short term  unrealized fall like this. I know overall market will run again at some point and my shares will have its time one day maybe during even during a bear period. ( One of my long term shares I already dislclosed in the forum seemed to gain some short term interest yesterday) .


I also have some short term trading shares in my portfolio which I will cut losses if they fall further. I will be happy if I gain 20% .

I don;t try to out smart the market always, and am developing/studying my individual methods that best suits me. Everyone should develop their own method and stick to it if it makes you happy.

2Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 9:53 am

kalum


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks slstock.

however if the market come under 6K mark, it will effect to investors mentality in a badway.
foreign avg inflow is plus. i wonder what sort of mentality with local traders.

One thing i observe is in any news they like to pickup the bad side, but dont have much reactions to good news. Rolling Eyes 

3Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 10:07 am

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
The market can easily collapse if you understand what I'm saying:

SPEN can easily go from 125 to 100

DIST can go from 193 to 180

BREW can drop to 400 levels 

LOLC at 50

These are all very much possible ....

4Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 10:26 am

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Rainmaker, to what price Comb & Samp will come down?

I asked this for my personal benefit, since am buying these days

5Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 10:28 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Sigh!!

When 98% people here are up for short term , gambling and quick profits how can they see the longer term picture and opportunities.

If this post does not make sense to anyone just discard. Forget it.


I even gave examples of ASI behavior from last June.

If someone is interested, just concentrate on individual shares .
If comb falls to Rs 100 I know what I will be doing.

6Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 10:54 am

wappula

wappula
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
thank you very much Mr. slstock. I got your point.
after some time I red good article from you.
can you please, explain about when to sell ?...

7Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 10:59 am

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Gaja I'm also worried about SAMP since I hold considerable quantities. No worries I have been holding this for some years

The AR shows some depressing stuff on page 178
On 30th June the gold price was 1250.

8Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 11:02 am

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock now you are talking like that. But when the price is 100 you will not buy:P 

Tell me if your buying CDB and SEMB ??

9Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 11:12 am

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@rainmaker wrote:@Gaja I'm also worried about SAMP since I hold considerable quantities. No worries I have been holding this for some years

The AR shows some depressing stuff on page 178
On 30th June the gold price was 1250.

Well i don't have much exposure to Samp like i have towards COMB and NDB, but these days i decided to enter samp little by little, while increasing the the commercial as well.

Am not doing with Credit, and some cases am rotating the investments!

10Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 11:29 am

LSE

LSE
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thank You Dear slstock Smile 
After long time happy to see such a post from you...

Cheers....!!! cheers cheers cheers 

Thank You.

11Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 11:30 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Can DFCC find support around 128 Very Happy 
Going by the trend line it looks like it can find some support around 128. atleast temporary interest can come for collection

12Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 11:33 am

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@traderathome wrote:Can DFCC find support around 128 Very Happy 
Going by the trend line it looks like it can find some support around 128. atleast temporary interest can come for collection

About DFCC, in my personal view and waiting to see how the change in the top will lead the bank, because i feel most of the 2nd level will remail same, so i don't know how soon they can adopt to change! 

13Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 11:47 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I am not an expert in selling as that is an area I need to develop further. I have not learned to optimize ( and I think one rarely can)


Anyway this is what i suggest. If one does not agree ( not wappula) don;t read and don;t comment and waste my time further. Atleast I am sharing something for the benefit of the forum.


We should set enter and exit prices for short term and long term.

Short term :

For weak shares you buy particularly , set cut losses price if it falls below certain %. Determine the trend and If it achieves positive 10-30% up sell.


For long term
a) if the company share price reaches your goal you can sell
b) before it reaches you goal you suddenly find company is going down the drain ( rarely happens if you pick solid companies) you can decide to sell
c) if company fundamentals/dividends are increasing and price is increasing gradually ( not in huge jumps) one can sell too early ;-)

In a sideway market like this ( not true bull) it it hard to explain long term as it seems the best thing to do it to sell after a run and buy back later. But that is trading .

I can tell you it won;t b e easy tactic in a bull market .

Hope you see what I am saying and the difference in mentalities in different markets.



@wappula wrote:thank you very much Mr. slstock. I got your point.
after some time I red good article from you.
can you please, explain about when to sell ?...

14Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 11:50 am

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Rainmaker:  

Firstly to directly answer you question :


If  a company fundamentals are intact  and prices fall due to market weakness I will buy in steps. I already explained this. Don't waste my time further if you can;t understand this concept. For Example I collected CDB from Rs 30-40 . I also bought a bit  when it fell to rS 46 before dividend, This is share that ran to Rs 55.  I will also get my dividend. If fundamental are intact and if it fall below a threshold I determine , I will buy more.


COMB is well worth at Rs 100 with present fundamentals. If it goes thatere and market is not on the verge of crashing I will buy some.


Side note :
For good companies the only worry  I have in this kind of market are  right issues.  Why ? Beaucse in this kind of  market, it   decide to discount right issues  shares too much ( kill its momentum) and it is hard for it to recover for many months to past share value.    Also  buying power goes down when it happens. If a right issue came  in 2010 it was a blessing as market pushed Share prices up. ( not down like now) . It is all in the mentality.

BTw,
Contradicting is a habit  in this forum to show one is superior to another.
Some people show up every 6 months  ( not you) as I explained when the time is ripe to preach.
They know  when market is weak,   minds of people are weaker and it is easier to convince others.
They never come in blood red and say time to buy.

BTw, if one does  not buy good shares at market weaknesses should one buy after  the share ran 40% and cry later?  Did you note what foreigner did and what local are doing?

Right now market is weak not beaucse all companies are crap.

@rainmaker wrote:@slstock now you are talking like that. But when the price is 100 you will not buy:P 

Tell me if your buying CDB and SEMB ??



Last edited by slstock on Fri Jul 05, 2013 12:00 pm; edited 2 times in total

15Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 11:50 am

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
slstock t Thank you very The problem is some people  can't understand

what you say

Most important thing in this game is UNDERSTAND THE NATURE OF MARKET



Last edited by D.G.Dayaratne on Fri Jul 05, 2013 11:54 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typing error)

16Future at CSE Empty re cse Fri Jul 05, 2013 12:26 pm

malan100

malan100
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@slstock wrote:Forum :


Markets go through cycles

Somehow people find it hard to understand that concept.
This is more difficult specially if one looks though a short term mind set.

When market is overbought we worry. When it is over sold we worry. We always worry.
But some people will like RED days more than green ;-)  


Stop to  think and simply understand

* there are red periods and green period in market ( we can;t change them)  
* what kind of a person you are ? ( how much patience you have, are you investing for several years like an FD or like quick profit/loss with trading,  how much greed you have,do  you want to beat market everytime , can you not bear to see some short term unrealized loss? )


ASI:

ASI was 4700.  It went to 6000
Fell to 5300 then it went to 6500
 

Now it is falling again  and we are watching whether it will stay above 6000.
If it fall below 6000 short term people  can create panic and opportunities for others ;-)


At some point again it Will go over 6500 and over 7800 even !

When I do not  know as as none  has a  magic ball  to predict every macro/micro event and share  pushes by some parties.  All I know is it will pass 7800 at  some point again ( we may have a general/hopeful  idea here) As an investor be ready for it.

This is where patience comes in. Some people think they can outsmart market. Pick tops and bottoms all the time. Don;t try. You will fail at somepoint and miserably at that. Don't  look for concrete  answers in stock markets.

Sometimes it smarter  to go with the flow and not try to analyze market too much but capitalize on the  situation  if opportunity comes.


I repeat , we should understand

a)  the difference between short term trading and long term investment.
b)  market have cycles



Side track :

Isn;t it amazing how some people always pick the Red days after a peak  of a cycle ( ASI 6000 and 6500) to make an appearance in the forum and talk big . No help to the forum , no share discussions . 6 moth cycles they have to show up.   They never talk about when to buy  but   they say when to sell after they sold.
There quietly buy during  red periods  and then makes a reappearance you know when!
Oh yes such people  specially like to  critize others who actually have contributed to the forum.
I saw chinwi saying they are "Cardboard heros". That exactly what they are.  


From such people I ask a direct question  as  you seems to know all answers and are masters of the  trade.  (I  humbly say I am  not an expert .  I have made my mistakes but am much better than before)  

Take the challenge and answer  and help people like us to learn from you.  Can;t give vague answers as you know better than everyone else.

What level will ASI fall this time.
What time and shares should we buy and at what prices.  Any estimates about their worth using analysis?  



My take

Investors :  

I already mentioned, I am collecting slowly ( my target  fundamental shares)   Don;t buy in big blocks and complain if share falls another 10%. Then you are not a patient investor  but  a trader worrying about short term. Don;t mix up the 2.

Buy little by little if you do.  

Short term people will ask why  buy  if you  think market will fall more?

Again don;t try to  outsmart the market.  You are not buying the whole market.
You are buying individual shares  and they can have life of their own. Who knows when they will trigger.  



Short term traders:

Wait for opportunities to come to you. Do not chase after shares  in REd markets. Do not try to catch falling knives.

I know lot of people did not take our warnings for SFS at Rs 6,  CIFL at Rs 9 and 6. TWOD for Rs 14, 8 etc. PCH when it was over Rs 10 etc etc  

But realize even crap at some point  can now  give you short term trading opportunities.  They are not investment grade to me but trading grade. People like to talk high about a share after a run. But before that?

Look for  opportunities after a big fall , being oversold  and wait for it come to you. Don;t hold onto fundamentally weak shares  for too long as they might never recover to their previous glory or who know what kind selling will trigger. (  when rights were fully subcribed for PCH at Rs3  few weeks ago many might not have expected for it to fall this low)


COMB falling to Rs 100 and TWOD falling to Rs 2 might be both opportunities but in different perspectives.


Finally,

ASI might fall another 100-200 points in short term panic? Who knows.

I really dont; care  as I look at Individual companies valuations etc. Atleast most my long term shares have/are paying me good dividends even if there is a short term  unrealized fall like this.  I  know overall market will run again at some point and  my shares will have its time one day maybe during even during a bear period.  ( One of my long term shares  I already dislclosed in the forum seemed to gain some short term  interest  yesterday)   .


I also have some short term trading shares  in my portfolio which I will cut losses if they fall further. I will be happy if I gain 20% .

I don;t try to out smart the market always,  and am developing/studying my individual methods that best suits me. Everyone should develop their own method and stick to it if it makes you happy.
Thank you slstock for ur nice article. i learn something abt cse from this. i entered to market 2years ago. bt didnt get much profit rather than losses due to the panic of short term. im still learning lot from this forum. may i knw fundamentals of samp, jkh tkyo, tjl are good enough to collecting in small quantities in this price range..

17Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 1:18 pm

wappula

wappula
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:  

Hope  you see what I am saying  and the difference in mentalities in different markets.


Again I say you are one of the best teacher for me.

hmmm....

these days I am collecting wisdom as much as how to spend next winter season
and how to identify begin of summer. I don't plan to do trading randomly
I don't want rich my broker also i have no enough ability to do that.

I strongly believe we are near the end of summer

everyone target is sell everything next up trend

that's consider for me how much peoples hate to teller

(sorry for my English) thanks everyone happy trading....



18Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 1:42 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
"Right now market is weak not beaucse all companies are crap. "

Slstock, IMHO only selected companies are going to show good results and most will probably be at least slightly negative. (this is about near term and also unrelated to other stuff being discussed)

Wappula, you seem to have a point there.

19Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 2:05 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Gaja wrote:
@traderathome wrote:Can DFCC find support around 128 Very Happy 
Going by the trend line it looks like it can find some support around 128. atleast temporary interest can come for collection

About DFCC, in my personal view and waiting to see how the change in the top will lead the bank, because i feel most of the 2nd level will remail same, so i don't know how soon they can adopt to change! 

 I thought Dinesh would do a smart cross hold by getting COMB to buy 20% of DFCC 

Anyway COMB should finish off DFCC by going for a 5 for 1 rights at 110/= Razz 


@slstock I'm also collecting the CDB dividend .... and will subscribe to any rights if it comes. Hard to find good volume. Remember if your in for the long term RICH will make you RICH Wink

20Future at CSE Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 4:10 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Just to add some observations........

Last December the index almost  touched 200 SMA . As per Today it is in between 50 and 200 lines. MACD is getting closer. I do not think anyone panicked , observing low turnover. I am collecting what I want when they give me at the rates I place.    

Future at CSE Cmb_ju10

______________________________________________________________________________________

Apart from that I observed a nice feature about the current trend (started June last year) and  last 10 year growth rate of our stock market.

This is not any big analysis,  only for your reference.

In the below graph, 10 year line is given in Magenta. Post war boom is Green. If you bisect them to get mean or average you can draw the red line.

The growth we saw during last one year is given in  Blue line .

We can see the red line is exactly in parallel to  the blue line.
That means the current trend or growth rate is the average of the 10 year and post war boom rates.  

I think we can continue in this rate (with ups and down +- 500 )  which is more stable than the green line (Post war boom )

Future at CSE Cse_gr10

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