FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️ would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️
www.srilankachronicle.com


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️ would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™️
www.srilankachronicle.com
FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Encyclopedia of Latest news, reviews, discussions and analysis of stock market and investment opportunities in Sri Lanka


Submit PostSubmit Post
ශ්‍රී ලංකා මූල්‍ය වංශකථාව - සිංහල
Submit Post



Latest topics

» LANKA ALUMINIUM INDUSTRIES PLC (LALU.N0000)
by Jana Yesterday at 11:41 pm

» No trader can flee from making a mistake. It’s just that you need to be careful about not repeating your mistakes.
by Asoka Samarakone Yesterday at 8:56 pm

» LDEV LDEV LDEV
by stockchaser Yesterday at 8:43 pm

» Daily Foreign Transactions
by Pradeep90 Yesterday at 8:33 pm

» SWISSTEK (CEYLON) PLC (PARQ.N0000)
by Chithi Yesterday at 7:45 pm

» ROYAL CERAMICS PLC (RCL.N0000)
by Jana Yesterday at 6:14 pm

» US dollar trading lower, euro near new high
by target1 Yesterday at 1:38 pm

» LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC (LDEV.N0000)
by Thushara Ayya Yesterday at 11:59 am

» ???? අප්‍රේල් 16 ???? මේ දින 3 කෙටි සතියත් කොළපාටින් අවසන් වුනා
by Wickyz Yesterday at 11:20 am

» DIPD/HAYC/HAYL
by Wickyz Yesterday at 11:19 am

» RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC (RWSL.N0000)
by Eranga87 Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:12 pm

» GLAS will be winner with Super Gain.
by ronstyn53 Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:22 pm

» CIC HOLDINGS PLC (CIC.N0000)
by abey Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:07 pm

» First capital holdings CFVF.N0000
by invest thinker Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:46 pm

» Lanka Walltile PLC Investment Case
by judecroos Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:55 am

» Which is the best at current market condition ? ( At least 30% within 30 Days)
by judecroos Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:39 am

» Big opportunity in Kegalle Plantations
by EquityChamp Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:58 pm

» විජේදාසගේ... voice cut ප්‍රතිඵල
by nigma Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:59 am

» If you buy a stock that’s not going up in price, you won’t make any money. STOCK market for beginners
by dayandacool Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:31 am

» B P P L HOLDINGS PLC (BPPL.N0000)
by vikiperera Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:17 am

EXPERT CHRONICLE™

ECONOMIC CHRONICLE

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)


CHRONICLE™ YouTube

CHRONICLE™ NEWS PRODUCTS

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™

Views & Reviews, Analysis, Evaluations, Discussions, Gossip and Hot Tips relating to Sri Lankan companies listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE)
Contribute




DAILY CHRONICLE™

Latest news and articles published in Newspapers, Websites, Blogs and other online news sites relating to business and investments in Sri Lanka
Contribute



ECONOMIC CHRONICLE™

This is a section that provide news, views, analysis, predications relating to Political and Socio-Economic factors and how such activities affect the Stock Market and other economic activity of the Country.

Contribute




EXPERT CHRONICLE™

This is an exclusive section for Expert Articles which will help member to share knowledge through comments and responses of the members. All members are allowed to reply and make comments to these articles.

Contribute


Submit Post


CHRONICLE™ YouTube

Youtube Videos and other visual presentations relating Stock market and other investment advise submitted by members or other contributors.

Contribute


Submit Post


කොළඔ කොටස් වෙළඳපොළේ වංශකථාව
කොළඔ කොටස් වෙළඳපොළේ ලැයිස්තුගත සමාගම් කොටස් ගැන තොරතුරු¸විශ්ලේෂණ¸සාකච්ඡා¸ කටකතා¸රසකතා යන සියල්ල අපේම සිංහලෙන් කතා කළ හැකි ‘කතා මණ්ඩපය’

Contribute

Twitter Feeds
POPULAR COMPANIES
A

ABANS ELECTRICALS PLC

ACCESS ENGINEERING PLC Hot

ACL CABLES PLC

ACL PLASTICS PLC

ACME PRINTING & PACKAGING PLC

AGSTAR PLC

AITKEN SPENCE HOTEL HOLDINGS PLC

AITKEN SPENCE PLC

ANILANA HOTELS AND PROPERTIES PLC

ARPICO INSURANCE PLC

ASIA ASSET FINANCE PLC

ASIA CAPITAL PLC

B

BAIRAHA FARMS PLC

BALANGODA PLANTATIONS PLC

BIMPUTH FINANCE PLC

BLUE DIAMONDS JEWELLERY WORLDWIDE PLC

B P P L HOLDINGS PLC

BROWNS BEACH HOTELS PLC

BROWNS INVESTMENTS PLC

C

CARGO BOAT DEVELOPMENT COMPANY PLC

CENTRAL INDUSTRIES PLC

CEYLON COLD STORES PLC

CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC Hot

CEYLON TEA BROKERS PLC

CEYLON TOBACCO COMPANY PLC

CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC

COLOMBO FORT LAND & BUILDING PLC

COMMERCIAL BANK OF CEYLON PLC

CITRUS LEISURE PLC Hot

COMMERCIAL CREDIT AND FINANCE PLC

D

DANKOTUWA PORCELAIN PLC

DFCC BANK PLC

DIALOG AXIATA PLC

DIALOG FINANCE PLC

DIPPED PRODUCTS PLC

DISTILLERIES COMPANY OF SRI LANKA PLC

DUNAMIS CAPITAL PLC

E

EAST WEST PROPERTIES PLC Hot

EASTERN MERCHANTS PLC

EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC

E-CHANNELLING PLC

F

FIRST CAPITAL HOLDINGS PLC

G

GALADARI HOTELS (LANKA) PLC

GUARDIAN CAPITAL PARTNERS PLC

H

HATTON NATIONAL BANK PLC

HAYLEYS PLC

HAYLEYS FABRIC PLC

HAYLEYS FIBRE PLC Hot

HEMAS HOLDINGS PLC

HIKKADUWA BEACH RESORT PLC

HNB ASSURANCE PLC

HVA FOODS PLC

J

JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC

JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS PLC Hot

JOHN KEELLS HOTELS PLC

L

LANKA ASHOK LEYLAND PLC

LANKA IOC PLC

LANKEM CEYLON PLC

LANKEM DEVELOPMENTS PLC

LAUGFS GAS PLC

LAUGFS POWER LIMITED

LOLC FINANCE PLC

LOLC HOLDINGS PLC

LUCKY LANKA MILK PROCESSING COMPANY PLC

M

MELSTACORP PLC

N

NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANK PLC

NATION LANKA FINANCE PLC

NESTLE LANKA PLC

O

ORIENT FINANCE PLC

OVERSEAS REALTY (CEYLON) PLC

P

PANASIAN POWER PLC

PEOPLE'S LEASING & FINANCE PLC

PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC

PRIME FINANCE PLC

R

RAIGAM WAYAMBA SALTERNS PLC

RENUKA AGRI FOODS PLC

RENUKA CAPITAL PLC

RENUKA HOLDINGS PLC

RICHARD PIERIS AND COMPANY PLC

RICHARD PIERIS EXPORTS PLC Hot

ROYAL CERAMICS PLC

S

SAMPATH BANK PLC

SEYLAN BANK PLC

SIERRA CABLES PLC

SINGHE HOSPITALS PLC Hot

SMB LEASING PLC

SOFTLOGIC HOLDINGS PLC

SOFTLOGIC LIFE INSURANCE PLC

SRI LANKA TELECOM PLC

SWISSTEK (CEYLON) PLC Hot

T

TEEJAY LANKA PLC

TESS AGRO PLC

THREE ACRE FARMS PLC

TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC Hot

U

UNION BANK OF COLOMBO PLC

V

VALLIBEL FINANCE PLC

VALLIBEL ONE PLC Hot

VALLIBEL POWER ERATHNA PLC

W

WASKADUWA BEACH RESORT PLC


You are not connected. Please login or register

FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Future at CSE

Future at CSE

Go to page : Previous  1, 2

Go down  Message [Page 2 of 2]

21Future at CSE - Page 2 Empty re cse Fri Jul 05, 2013 12:26 pm

malan100


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@slstock wrote:Forum :


Markets go through cycles

Somehow people find it hard to understand that concept.
This is more difficult specially if one looks though a short term mind set.

When market is overbought we worry. When it is over sold we worry. We always worry.
But some people will like RED days more than green ;-)  


Stop to  think and simply understand

* there are red periods and green period in market ( we can;t change them)  
* what kind of a person you are ? ( how much patience you have, are you investing for several years like an FD or like quick profit/loss with trading,  how much greed you have,do  you want to beat market everytime , can you not bear to see some short term unrealized loss? )


ASI:

ASI was 4700.  It went to 6000
Fell to 5300 then it went to 6500
 

Now it is falling again  and we are watching whether it will stay above 6000.
If it fall below 6000 short term people  can create panic and opportunities for others ;-)


At some point again it Will go over 6500 and over 7800 even !

When I do not  know as as none  has a  magic ball  to predict every macro/micro event and share  pushes by some parties.  All I know is it will pass 7800 at  some point again ( we may have a general/hopeful  idea here) As an investor be ready for it.

This is where patience comes in. Some people think they can outsmart market. Pick tops and bottoms all the time. Don;t try. You will fail at somepoint and miserably at that. Don't  look for concrete  answers in stock markets.

Sometimes it smarter  to go with the flow and not try to analyze market too much but capitalize on the  situation  if opportunity comes.


I repeat , we should understand

a)  the difference between short term trading and long term investment.
b)  market have cycles



Side track :

Isn;t it amazing how some people always pick the Red days after a peak  of a cycle ( ASI 6000 and 6500) to make an appearance in the forum and talk big . No help to the forum , no share discussions . 6 moth cycles they have to show up.   They never talk about when to buy  but   they say when to sell after they sold.
There quietly buy during  red periods  and then makes a reappearance you know when!
Oh yes such people  specially like to  critize others who actually have contributed to the forum.
I saw chinwi saying they are "Cardboard heros". That exactly what they are.  


From such people I ask a direct question  as  you seems to know all answers and are masters of the  trade.  (I  humbly say I am  not an expert .  I have made my mistakes but am much better than before)  

Take the challenge and answer  and help people like us to learn from you.  Can;t give vague answers as you know better than everyone else.

What level will ASI fall this time.
What time and shares should we buy and at what prices.  Any estimates about their worth using analysis?  



My take

Investors :  

I already mentioned, I am collecting slowly ( my target  fundamental shares)   Don;t buy in big blocks and complain if share falls another 10%. Then you are not a patient investor  but  a trader worrying about short term. Don;t mix up the 2.

Buy little by little if you do.  

Short term people will ask why  buy  if you  think market will fall more?

Again don;t try to  outsmart the market.  You are not buying the whole market.
You are buying individual shares  and they can have life of their own. Who knows when they will trigger.  



Short term traders:

Wait for opportunities to come to you. Do not chase after shares  in REd markets. Do not try to catch falling knives.

I know lot of people did not take our warnings for SFS at Rs 6,  CIFL at Rs 9 and 6. TWOD for Rs 14, 8 etc. PCH when it was over Rs 10 etc etc  

But realize even crap at some point  can now  give you short term trading opportunities.  They are not investment grade to me but trading grade. People like to talk high about a share after a run. But before that?

Look for  opportunities after a big fall , being oversold  and wait for it come to you. Don;t hold onto fundamentally weak shares  for too long as they might never recover to their previous glory or who know what kind selling will trigger. (  when rights were fully subcribed for PCH at Rs3  few weeks ago many might not have expected for it to fall this low)


COMB falling to Rs 100 and TWOD falling to Rs 2 might be both opportunities but in different perspectives.


Finally,

ASI might fall another 100-200 points in short term panic? Who knows.

I really dont; care  as I look at Individual companies valuations etc. Atleast most my long term shares have/are paying me good dividends even if there is a short term  unrealized fall like this.  I  know overall market will run again at some point and  my shares will have its time one day maybe during even during a bear period.  ( One of my long term shares  I already dislclosed in the forum seemed to gain some short term  interest  yesterday)   .


I also have some short term trading shares  in my portfolio which I will cut losses if they fall further. I will be happy if I gain 20% .

I don;t try to out smart the market always,  and am developing/studying my individual methods that best suits me. Everyone should develop their own method and stick to it if it makes you happy.
Thank you slstock for ur nice article. i learn something abt cse from this. i entered to market 2years ago. bt didnt get much profit rather than losses due to the panic of short term. im still learning lot from this forum. may i knw fundamentals of samp, jkh tkyo, tjl are good enough to collecting in small quantities in this price range..

22Future at CSE - Page 2 Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 1:18 pm

wappula


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:  

Hope  you see what I am saying  and the difference in mentalities in different markets.


Again I say you are one of the best teacher for me.

hmmm....

these days I am collecting wisdom as much as how to spend next winter season
and how to identify begin of summer. I don't plan to do trading randomly
I don't want rich my broker also i have no enough ability to do that.

I strongly believe we are near the end of summer

everyone target is sell everything next up trend

that's consider for me how much peoples hate to teller

(sorry for my English) thanks everyone happy trading....



23Future at CSE - Page 2 Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 1:42 pm

Backstage


Moderator
Moderator
"Right now market is weak not beaucse all companies are crap. "

Slstock, IMHO only selected companies are going to show good results and most will probably be at least slightly negative. (this is about near term and also unrelated to other stuff being discussed)

Wappula, you seem to have a point there.

24Future at CSE - Page 2 Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 2:05 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Gaja wrote:
@traderathome wrote:Can DFCC find support around 128 Very Happy 
Going by the trend line it looks like it can find some support around 128. atleast temporary interest can come for collection

About DFCC, in my personal view and waiting to see how the change in the top will lead the bank, because i feel most of the 2nd level will remail same, so i don't know how soon they can adopt to change! 

 I thought Dinesh would do a smart cross hold by getting COMB to buy 20% of DFCC 

Anyway COMB should finish off DFCC by going for a 5 for 1 rights at 110/= Razz 


@slstock I'm also collecting the CDB dividend .... and will subscribe to any rights if it comes. Hard to find good volume. Remember if your in for the long term RICH will make you RICH Wink

25Future at CSE - Page 2 Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 4:10 pm

Chinwi


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Just to add some observations........

Last December the index almost  touched 200 SMA . As per Today it is in between 50 and 200 lines. MACD is getting closer. I do not think anyone panicked , observing low turnover. I am collecting what I want when they give me at the rates I place.    

Future at CSE - Page 2 Cmb_ju10

______________________________________________________________________________________

Apart from that I observed a nice feature about the current trend (started June last year) and  last 10 year growth rate of our stock market.

This is not any big analysis,  only for your reference.

In the below graph, 10 year line is given in Magenta. Post war boom is Green. If you bisect them to get mean or average you can draw the red line.

The growth we saw during last one year is given in  Blue line .

We can see the red line is exactly in parallel to  the blue line.
That means the current trend or growth rate is the average of the 10 year and post war boom rates.  

I think we can continue in this rate (with ups and down +- 500 )  which is more stable than the green line (Post war boom )

Future at CSE - Page 2 Cse_gr10

26Future at CSE - Page 2 Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 4:56 pm

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ Cinwi,
10 Year line make more sense....Mostly market follow that line, If it come below can easily say undervalue...

27Future at CSE - Page 2 Empty Re: Future at CSE Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:02 pm

Burpy


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
also pay close attention to forecat GDP numbers.... and GDP numbes are dpendant on monetary policy. foreign funds base their decisions based on GDP forecasts in most cases. the bull run we had was backed by high GDP growth we had and the drop to 6% was reflected in market slump. You can make good money if you keenly watch monetary policy trends- thats how hedge funds make money. Wink 

28Future at CSE - Page 2 Empty Re: Future at CSE Sat Jul 06, 2013 9:52 am

wappula

wappula
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Future at CSE - Page 2 <a href=Future at CSE - Page 2 Cse13" />

mr, chinwi can I add this chart on to your comment,?

29Future at CSE - Page 2 Empty Re: Future at CSE Sat Jul 06, 2013 3:15 pm

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
I too agree with Chinvi's analysis. Long term trend is up & current down trend is short-term. Good for long term investers. Time to pick sound stocks at bargain prices. At the same time, it creates trading opportunities for short-term investers too.

30Future at CSE - Page 2 Empty Re: Future at CSE Sat Jul 06, 2013 3:45 pm

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Thanks Slstock for the valuable advice & Chinwi for the illustratons.

Good article regarding the CSE investment in FT.lk shared in our forum.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t29673-selecting-between-stock-market-investments-and-fixed-deposits

Sponsored content


Back to top  Message [Page 2 of 2]

Go to page : Previous  1, 2

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum