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Thank you slstock for ur nice article. i learn something abt cse from this. i entered to market 2years ago. bt didnt get much profit rather than losses due to the panic of short term. im still learning lot from this forum. may i knw fundamentals of samp, jkh tkyo, tjl are good enough to collecting in small quantities in this price range..@slstock wrote:Forum :
Markets go through cycles
Somehow people find it hard to understand that concept.
This is more difficult specially if one looks though a short term mind set.
When market is overbought we worry. When it is over sold we worry. We always worry.
But some people will like RED days more than green ;-)
Stop to think and simply understand
* there are red periods and green period in market ( we can;t change them)
* what kind of a person you are ? ( how much patience you have, are you investing for several years like an FD or like quick profit/loss with trading, how much greed you have,do you want to beat market everytime , can you not bear to see some short term unrealized loss? )
ASI:
ASI was 4700. It went to 6000
Fell to 5300 then it went to 6500
Now it is falling again and we are watching whether it will stay above 6000.
If it fall below 6000 short term people can create panic and opportunities for others ;-)
At some point again it Will go over 6500 and over 7800 even !
When I do not know as as none has a magic ball to predict every macro/micro event and share pushes by some parties. All I know is it will pass 7800 at some point again ( we may have a general/hopeful idea here) As an investor be ready for it.
This is where patience comes in. Some people think they can outsmart market. Pick tops and bottoms all the time. Don;t try. You will fail at somepoint and miserably at that. Don't look for concrete answers in stock markets.
Sometimes it smarter to go with the flow and not try to analyze market too much but capitalize on the situation if opportunity comes.
I repeat , we should understand
a) the difference between short term trading and long term investment.
b) market have cycles
Side track :
Isn;t it amazing how some people always pick the Red days after a peak of a cycle ( ASI 6000 and 6500) to make an appearance in the forum and talk big . No help to the forum , no share discussions . 6 moth cycles they have to show up. They never talk about when to buy but they say when to sell after they sold.
There quietly buy during red periods and then makes a reappearance you know when!
Oh yes such people specially like to critize others who actually have contributed to the forum.
I saw chinwi saying they are "Cardboard heros". That exactly what they are.
From such people I ask a direct question as you seems to know all answers and are masters of the trade. (I humbly say I am not an expert . I have made my mistakes but am much better than before)
Take the challenge and answer and help people like us to learn from you. Can;t give vague answers as you know better than everyone else.
What level will ASI fall this time.
What time and shares should we buy and at what prices. Any estimates about their worth using analysis?
My take
Investors :
I already mentioned, I am collecting slowly ( my target fundamental shares) Don;t buy in big blocks and complain if share falls another 10%. Then you are not a patient investor but a trader worrying about short term. Don;t mix up the 2.
Buy little by little if you do.
Short term people will ask why buy if you think market will fall more?
Again don;t try to outsmart the market. You are not buying the whole market.
You are buying individual shares and they can have life of their own. Who knows when they will trigger.
Short term traders:
Wait for opportunities to come to you. Do not chase after shares in REd markets. Do not try to catch falling knives.
I know lot of people did not take our warnings for SFS at Rs 6, CIFL at Rs 9 and 6. TWOD for Rs 14, 8 etc. PCH when it was over Rs 10 etc etc
But realize even crap at some point can now give you short term trading opportunities. They are not investment grade to me but trading grade. People like to talk high about a share after a run. But before that?
Look for opportunities after a big fall , being oversold and wait for it come to you. Don;t hold onto fundamentally weak shares for too long as they might never recover to their previous glory or who know what kind selling will trigger. ( when rights were fully subcribed for PCH at Rs3 few weeks ago many might not have expected for it to fall this low)
COMB falling to Rs 100 and TWOD falling to Rs 2 might be both opportunities but in different perspectives.
Finally,
ASI might fall another 100-200 points in short term panic? Who knows.
I really dont; care as I look at Individual companies valuations etc. Atleast most my long term shares have/are paying me good dividends even if there is a short term unrealized fall like this. I know overall market will run again at some point and my shares will have its time one day maybe during even during a bear period. ( One of my long term shares I already dislclosed in the forum seemed to gain some short term interest yesterday) .
I also have some short term trading shares in my portfolio which I will cut losses if they fall further. I will be happy if I gain 20% .
I don;t try to out smart the market always, and am developing/studying my individual methods that best suits me. Everyone should develop their own method and stick to it if it makes you happy.
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