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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Declining Gold Prices and Bank/Finance Sector

Declining Gold Prices and Bank/Finance Sector

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Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Its predicted that Gold is to be go down further. Experts say prices could be go down to $ 1050 (which is the next supporting level) by end of next year, or earlier.

This could hurt Finance companies and Banks whose bottom lines are well supported with the pawning business. LFIN who has a lucrative share on gold pawning when compared to their other businesses to be tested in this new hostile development. Currently most of the pawning centres including banks are not accepting any new business (lending against Gold) but eagerly expecting existing customer's settlements.

Main concern of all is that of the risk factor which all private Banks who has large amount of unsettled gold loans, to be exposed them selves further in this unexpected global financial dilemma.  
Further, I personally  know how remote Bank-Branches depend on gold pawning business in terms of making their entities profitable.

Now time has come to think twice on investing Bank/Finance sector in CSE at this juncture, unless the prices are corrected with accord to the Risk factor.
Its prudent to expect a price decline in Bank/Finance counters in near future.

According to the information gathered from a few broker-huts there would be more selling on Banking counters as some long term investors on the selling side. As usual BBs are unaware of the reason for the selling. It could be the Gold fact which could create a correction on Bank counter or expected next ASI support level 5800 or an unknown reason which yet to know.

Unfortunately CSE does not have any listed business which deals on Gold or Gold/Jewellery which could have a positive impact with low raw materials and in return would add some positive points to ASI.
Well , in that case , there might be some newspaper articles on BLUE counter in coming days which is not bad for the market movement. But be vigilant with a "bull trap" which I foretasted in a my previous post "Sucker Rally".

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Interesting post Prince.

More than anything, big banks have high expose to government, therefore I would buy big private banks shares for trading purposes only. This government is desperate for money. Especially for $s.

Regarding Blue. Yes I think you got it right..

sharekhan

sharekhan
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Thats why 10% import tax imposed...you dumbo

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@sharekhan wrote:Thats why 10% import tax imposed...you dumbo

It might go up in next couple of months time.

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
From the former IGPs PhD thesis (Balasuriya)

Informal Remittance Systems

The LTTE had developed a robust informal remittance system referred to as the "Undi" system (Hawala). The Tamil Diaspora can transfer money to relatives in Sri Lanka living in areas not adequately serviced by the banking system. The Undi system is controlled by a small cartel of Tamil Jewellery shop owners (goldsmiths) in Switzerland and Canada. A significant component of money transactions within the Undi system facilitated the falsely-declared import of gold jewellery into Europe from the Gold Market in Singapore for the jewellery market. The LTTE Finance unit in Switzerland had been actively facilitating the money transfer using human couriers between Switzerland and Singapore. In many of the cases jewellery shop owners in Switzerland provided a combined pool of funds to the LTTE for the purchase of gold jewellery from Singapore. The LTTE operatives sent human couriers with cash, who will also carry LTTE money intended for LTTE holding accounts in South East Asia. The couriers returned to Switzerland with receipts that have significantly overvalued the gold jewellery purchased in Singapore, in some cases craftsmanship value-addition had been five times the value of the gold component



In February 2007, several LTTE human couriers encountered difficulties in Singapore. An active member of the LTTE Finance unit in Bern, Ratnavel Sashidaran rushed to Singapore and was arrested by Singapore Police on 22 February 2007. The Singapore authorities decided to deport Sashidaran back to Switzerland without charge. In September 2007, Sashidaran sent two close relatives to Singapore as human couriers facilitating urgent money transfers for the LTTE. It is suspected that Sashidaran was under pressure to reactivate the Singapore money route as the LTTE urgently required funds in South East Asia for weapons purchases. It is believed that Singapore authorities have arrested one of Sashidaran's relatives, but details on this arrest are limited. Jayasekera, 2007).

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Very Simple equation......

If US attacks SYRIA = GOLD up
If Indecision on FOMC prolongs = GOLD up

Smile

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/9/13_Morgan_Whistleblowers_Confess_Bank_Manipulates_Gold_&_Silver.html

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