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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » My Best share list !!

My Best share list !!

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1My Best share list !! Empty My Best share list !! Fri Jul 05, 2013 3:13 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
I feel now is the time to start some fishing in the market and would like to share few short listed counters with you.
The list consists of counters with high 'probability' to give a net gain within next 6 months.
The table shows the expected average gains along with 'published' numbers.

Your comments and alternative views are welcome !

Here we go...

My Best share list !! List_210

2My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Fri Jul 05, 2013 3:50 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Thanks much for the share presentation. A rarity these days.Think you presented something like this before in the forum?

What method did you use to arrive at potential Value?


Reg plantation :

Though present earnings look promising, I would wait for another 3 months atleast to figure out the wage issue effect and whether the Tea earnings will hold. MASK, MADU, TPL is heavily dependant on Tea and going by the past they might be effected for 1 or 2 quarters.


Though MADU has high NAV due to timber valautions , their earnings are not consistent and seems to be having some trouble according to a report I saw.







3My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Fri Jul 05, 2013 3:51 pm

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@hunter wrote:I feel now is the time to start some fishing in the market and would like to share few short listed counters with you.
The list consists of counters with high 'probability' to give a net gain within next 6 months.
The table shows the expected average gains along with 'published' numbers.

Your comments and alternative views are welcome !

Here we go...

My Best share list !! List_210

For me Just 25% looks good. Not a prudent type of investment... Plantation no mega run for next six months. Finance like CDB exposed high lease and profit get erode, motor looks bleak...

4My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Fri Jul 05, 2013 5:27 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
Thanks for the comments. I also agree this may not be the ideal time to jump in to some of the counters esp. plantations.

Slstock, following is the clarification of my value calculation (You may call this is 'conservative' to some extent).

Value = Average of (EPS value, NAV per share)

Where as;

EPS value = 10 times of average EPS during last two years.

5My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Fri Jul 05, 2013 5:59 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Thanks.

Can you check for the below.

ALLI nav is 872 vs 826
LWL is 84.57 vs 106

@hunter wrote:Thanks for the comments. I also agree this may not be the ideal time to jump in to some of the counters esp. plantations.

Slstock, following is the clarification of my value calculation (You may call this is 'conservative' to some extent).

Value = Average of (EPS value, NAV per share)

Where as;

EPS value = 10 times of average EPS during last two years.

6My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Fri Jul 05, 2013 6:09 pm

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
Thanks, Hunter. You have opened a healthy discussion. I appreciate your sharing such info.

7My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Fri Jul 05, 2013 6:16 pm

pathfinder

pathfinder
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks hunter. i can remember your post,http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t23115-these-shares-are-still-at-a-bargain

8My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:22 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
Slstock,

Thanks for checking the figures Smile
You are correct on LWL. There has been an error in my spread sheet.
ALLI NAV is correct 826.6 according to my report (Unaudited report); You got a different version?




@pathfinder,
I had almost forgotten that post Very Happy
Now I have learnt that (using) 'pure' valuation is not very much effective in the short run.
We need to incorporate technical analysis and market sentiments also into the trading strategy.

9My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Fri Jul 05, 2013 8:38 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Check ALLI audited report.


@hunter wrote:Slstock,

Thanks for checking the figures Smile
You are correct on LWL. There has been an error in my spread sheet.
ALLI NAV is correct 826.6 according to my report (Unaudited report); You got a different version?




@pathfinder,
I had almost forgotten that post Very Happy
Now I have learnt that (using) 'pure' valuation is not very much effective in the short run.
We need to incorporate technical analysis and market sentiments also into the trading strategy.

10My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Sat Jul 06, 2013 4:19 pm

cseguide

cseguide
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@hunter wrote:I feel now is the time to start some fishing in the market and would like to share few short listed counters with you.
The list consists of counters with high 'probability' to give a net gain within next 6 months.
The table shows the expected average gains along with 'published' numbers.

Your comments and alternative views are welcome !

Here we go...

My Best share list !! List_210
out of these shares I am bulish on
UML
VFIN
inaddition LWL and CTLD also good for long term. I avoid plantation stocks

11My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Sat Jul 06, 2013 4:49 pm

pathfinder

pathfinder
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@hunter wrote:
@pathfinder,
I had almost forgotten that post Very Happy
Now I have learnt that (using) 'pure' valuation is not very much effective in the short run.
We need to incorporate technical analysis and market sentiments also into the trading strategy.

Dear hunter appreciate your hard work.
the earlier post was not drag to discourege you just to show that CSE is UNPREDICTABLE FOR SHORT TERM.

12My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Sat Jul 06, 2013 5:18 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Some of your valuations does make sense to me when I look at it in longer term perspective .

Some smart ass all knowing Pandithayas with only few year experience ( mostly seen the fall of the market than the bull) might critize your long term targets. They will preach and show their few trading successes and critize the long term investment potential as the only success they seen is in trading.

We know how the Big Bull is when he takes over. For example one can study how LWL, CDB, GUAR ran in 2011 when the time was right.

Peoples mind needs to be full of confidence before a true bull comes. Right now most people are still on their toes figuring out when to sell as they got burnt in the past. But is getting gradually better. So time for value investing ( like you mention) will realize in due course only.

Don;t get discouraged if short term your targets didn;t realize . You took time to analyze present share names. Smart investors in the forum will take notice.


@pathfinder wrote:
@hunter wrote:
@pathfinder,
I had almost forgotten that post Very Happy
Now I have learnt that (using) 'pure' valuation is not very much effective in the short run.
We need to incorporate technical analysis and market sentiments also into the trading strategy.

Dear hunter appreciate your hard work.
the earlier post was not drag to discourege you just to show that CSE is UNPREDICTABLE FOR SHORT TERM.

13My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Sat Jul 06, 2013 5:44 pm

wappula

wappula
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@ hunter,

sometime back you was a student, immediately you became a teacher,
now you are predictor my congratulation to you. for your quick success
good luck.Smile 

14My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:18 pm

pathfinder

pathfinder
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Dear SLSTOCK-It's seems to be you are so irritable and bursting on everything.
I clearly stated that CSE is unpredictable for short term,it was my fault that I didn't mention about longterm.surely some of the mentioned shares have good longterm value.

Please be polite if you are not satisfied with others comment.words like SMARTASS ,PANDITHAYA is not nice for a admin.

15My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:38 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Pathfinder ,

?????

Sheesh. I did not mean you. So don' t go there .   I  know you are balanced in your approach.  

Have you not seen me reasonable and temperate 98% of the times?


However If you look carefully you will find such pandithaya  example  in the forum right now and  since you been around you will know the  history  of such people and  how they play with new comer minds.
They can easily come here and say Hunters predictions and post is crap and he is promoting his portfolio when actually he has doing some real analysis to share with the forum ( which those people do not do) . That why said all this to Hunter.

Those words might  be too lenient for  such  people if you followed  how they attack others  without them giving  anything to  the forum.

I appreciate this post .


Side note :
Being a short termn trader is  perfectly okay if it suits one.  But some try to attack others if they don;t blindly follow their style and carry vengeance. New comers who does not know history or have experience will fall to their eye candy . CSE needs more people who does not make this their personal playground , gamble at other expense but make it a sustainable growth market. Fortuntely thigns are much better than 2012 first half now. Lesser panic and games.



@pathfinder wrote:Dear SLSTOCK-It's seems to be you are so irritable and bursting on everything.
I clearly stated that CSE is unpredictable for short term,it was my fault that I didn't mention about longterm.surely some of the mentioned shares have good longterm value.

Please be polite if you are not satisfied with others comment.words like SMARTASS ,PANDITHAYA is not nice for a admin.

16My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:57 pm

pathfinder

pathfinder
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Pathfinder ,

Sheesh. I did not mean you. So don' t go there .   I  know you are balanced in your approach.  

Have you not seen me reasonable and temparete most of the times?


However If you look carefully you will find such pandithaya  example  in the forum right now and  since you been around you will know the  history  of such people and  how they play with new comer minds.
They can easily come here and say Hunters predications and post is crap and he is promoting his portfolio when actually he has doing some real analysis to share with the forum ( which those people do not do) . That why said all this to Hunter.

Those words might  be too lenient for  such  people if you followed  how they attack others  without them giving  nothing to  the forum.


Side note :
Being a short termn trader is  perfectly okay if it suits one.  But some try to attack others if they don;t blindly follow their style.
.

@pathfinder wrote:Dear SLSTOCK-It's seems to be you are so irritable and bursting on everything.
I clearly stated that CSE is unpredictable for short term,it was my fault that I didn't mention about longterm.surely some of the mentioned shares have good longterm value.

Please be polite if you are not satisfied with others comment.words like SMARTASS ,PANDITHAYA is not nice for a admin.
I replied because you quote my words,No hard feelings Very Happy 

Of course there are hard working promotors.they are dancing here because of the silence of the good fellows,
I have seen you are fighting alone,other good fellows must help him.

17My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Sat Jul 06, 2013 7:30 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Pathfinder,

Lot of senior people here know the truth behind such person/s but they don't reply to protect the forum/defend injustice as

a) don;t want to waste their time
b) are afraid to post as they will be the next target from such uncouth people

You are a senior member. I think you should also say what you know when such events happen.

Lot of people do not understand people power/ pressure is the key to eradicate injustice/thugs/corruption . This is true even at country level.


@pathfinder wrote:
@slstock wrote:Pathfinder ,

Sheesh. I did not mean you. So don' t go there .   I  know you are balanced in your approach.  

Have you not seen me reasonable and temparete most of the times?


However If you look carefully you will find such pandithaya  example  in the forum right now and  since you been around you will know the  history  of such people and  how they play with new comer minds.
They can easily come here and say Hunters predications and post is crap and he is promoting his portfolio when actually he has doing some real analysis to share with the forum ( which those people do not do) . That why said all this to Hunter.

Those words might  be too lenient for  such  people if you followed  how they attack others  without them giving  nothing to  the forum.


Side note :
Being a short termn trader is  perfectly okay if it suits one.  But some try to attack others if they don;t blindly follow their style.
.

@pathfinder wrote:Dear SLSTOCK-It's seems to be you are so irritable and bursting on everything.
I clearly stated that CSE is unpredictable for short term,it was my fault that I didn't mention about longterm.surely some of the mentioned shares have good longterm value.

Please be polite if you are not satisfied with others comment.words like SMARTASS ,PANDITHAYA is not nice for a admin.
I replied because you quote my words,No hard feelings Very Happy 

Of course there are hard working promotors.they are dancing here because of the silence of the good fellows,
I have seen you are fighting alone,other good fellows must help him.

18My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Sat Jul 06, 2013 8:04 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Good one Hunter.. As discussed by others, a lil bit waiting on plantation is a good go imo..

Have you not looked at JKH & LLUB.. Me thinking differently on these now-a-days...
RCL, VONE, HPLF and LFIN also come to my mind these days Wink Wink 

19My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Sat Jul 06, 2013 8:04 pm

darme


Stock Trader
@hunter wrote:I feel now is the time to start some fishing in the market and would like to share few short listed counters with you.
The list consists of counters with high 'probability' to give a net gain within next 6 months.
The table shows the expected average gains along with 'published' numbers.

Your comments and alternative views are welcome !

Here we go...

My Best share list !! List_210

Thank you hunter, again very valuable post. i know ur always giving very valuable knowledge to the form. i remember good old days u post technical analysis method in downtrend market.i m using it and i found real track for trading & investing.I'm great full to u for the enlighten me. thank you sir......keep up the good work whatever the feed back.

20My Best share list !! Empty Re: My Best share list !! Sat Jul 06, 2013 9:02 pm

bakapandithaya

bakapandithaya
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
hunter,
Thank u very much for valuable post

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