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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » This is for smart Investors - 01

This is for smart Investors - 01

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1This is for smart Investors - 01 Empty This is for smart Investors - 01 Mon Jul 08, 2013 7:55 am

stocks hunter


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Hello friends. I think u all are aware this very well being smart investors in CSE by now. If u are doing share trading u should know that the share trading is an art and it means investments for our future / long term.

Now these days many are waiting CSE to come down and friends this may be a good time to u and me to go for bargain hunting.

We should get together and discuss good shares that are going at bargain prices these levels.

We should not allow other people to carried away ours if it happens we might miss this chance.

if mkt comes 5500 levels we should be happy and if mkt comes 5000 levels we should be more happy. If mkt goes below 5000 levels then that day will be our day.

If mkt goes above 6200 or 6500 levels we might miss the bargain hunting but it will appreciate our portfolio values since our holding is for long term basis.

So be happy Don't care about the Index movement just look at value shares.

2This is for smart Investors - 01 Empty Re: This is for smart Investors - 01 Mon Jul 08, 2013 8:49 am

roshana7549


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I really admire this last sentence "So be happy Don't care about the Index movement just look at value shares".
If you pick fundamentally strong shares at discounted price levels and have the patience to hold it for long term,this could almost be like a risk free investment which can offer higher return than FD in LT.

3This is for smart Investors - 01 Empty Re: This is for smart Investors - 01 Mon Jul 08, 2013 9:04 am

stocks hunter


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Now of course no point of investing in FD s . very low rates are offered by commercial banks. Rates are going to come down further. Now 1 year FD rate is around 11% and this might come down to 8% levels by end of year 2013.

Loan rates also come down to 15% levels from high as 20% within 6 months period. Knowing these reasons very well many people wanted to see a Red mkt so that they can do the bargain hunting.

Members who talk about mkt down turn should mentioned it when the mkt was at 6500 levels if they really care about short term players.

But many can be seen posting here when the mkt is close to 6000 barrier levels. So just think about the real agenda behind those posts.

4This is for smart Investors - 01 Empty Re: This is for smart Investors - 01 Mon Jul 08, 2013 10:43 am

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
Good & Timely advise, stock hunter.

5This is for smart Investors - 01 Empty Re: This is for smart Investors - 01 Tue Jul 09, 2013 2:11 pm

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@stocks hunter wrote:
Members who talk about mkt down turn should mentioned it when the mkt was at 6500 levels if they really care about short term players.

But many can be seen posting here when the mkt is close to 6000 barrier levels. So just think about the real agenda behind those posts.



Correct hunter. the warning should have come when it was 6500.

check below link.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t28531-is-the-market-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern

6This is for smart Investors - 01 Empty Re: This is for smart Investors - 01 Tue Jul 09, 2013 2:38 pm

Backstage

Backstage
Moderator
Moderator
Prince. I misunderstood what you were trying to say and thought you were a head & shoulder guy from the past. And I made fun of you in that thread. My sincere apologies. Embarassed 

7This is for smart Investors - 01 Empty Re: This is for smart Investors - 01 Tue Jul 09, 2013 2:41 pm

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
no, prob mate.

8This is for smart Investors - 01 Empty Re: This is for smart Investors - 01 Tue Jul 09, 2013 3:03 pm

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@stocks hunter wrote:Now of course no point of investing in FD s . very low rates are offered by commercial banks. Rates are going to come down further. Now 1 year FD rate is around 11% and this might come down to 8% levels by end of year 2013.

Loan rates also come down to 15% levels from high as 20% within 6 months period. Knowing these reasons very well many people wanted to see a Red mkt so that they can do the bargain hunting.

Members who talk about mkt down turn should mentioned it when the mkt was at 6500 levels if they really care about short term players.

But many can be seen posting here when the mkt is close to 6000 barrier levels. So just think about the real agenda behind those posts.

This is for smart Investors - 01 Cse10

Warning was indirectly given by posting an article by one of our member on 1/6/2013.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t28890-the-3-things-we-want-to-see-during-a-market-pullback?highlight=pullback

9This is for smart Investors - 01 Empty Re: This is for smart Investors - 01 Tue Jul 09, 2013 3:07 pm

dudi


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
so stock hunter,what are the fundamental stocks that are at a bargain at the moment?can u pls elaborate further?

10This is for smart Investors - 01 Empty Re: This is for smart Investors - 01 Tue Jul 09, 2013 5:13 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Prince wrote:

Correct hunter. the warning should have come when it was 6500.

check below link.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t28531-is-the-market-forming-a-head-shoulder-pattern

Prince.. No offense but that was not a HnS for my knowledge..

This is what I said


Ayoo Prince I dont think we're in for another H&S in the verge of a climb.. This is profit taking.. 6500 is a good barrier to break. Thus many ppl are in profits now so before they think whether market needs to go up, they sell at profits.

Panics may follow if it further goes down..

Now JKH was too hot few days back and its getting corrected.. Likewise, if CTC and LLUB started a correction, ASI may further go down. Even COMB can take the index down few points with selling going on..

It was profit taking at 6500 since many waited for that level to happen.. And how much profits one could book cashing in? for some counters it was 10%, some others 30%, then there were few even more than 50% imo..

I mention about JKH, CTC and LLUB.. See how much those are corrected now.. Talking abt JKH - that's too much correction. It should have stopped at 252. But we are always wrong.. Market is right..

11This is for smart Investors - 01 Empty Re: This is for smart Investors - 01 Tue Jul 09, 2013 5:37 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
This is for smart Investors - 01 Asi10

From the low of 4725, there have been 3 correction up to now. The third is still active.
Also see, the volume bar (light blue) when it topped at 6500.. Its only 36+ mil.

However, every ASI correction has followed a little bit similar pattern.

The first one was between 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
The second one was a little above 50% Fibonacci retracement from the previous correction.
And now the third one is stil between 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement from previous correction.

So if we're lucky, this has to stop by 5970.
Unlucky? 5818..
I dont wanna talk below 5818 levels.. But it looks like this...

Extremely unlucky??? 5625 is 100% correction..

Seeing bear? some relief at 5309.

Extreme bear? I'd say 5000-4800.

12This is for smart Investors - 01 Empty Re: This is for smart Investors - 01 Tue Jul 09, 2013 5:44 pm

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
smallville

If it was not a HnS what theory will describe the sharpness of the fall taking place? True It was a profit taking in-fact I encouraged profit taking at that level.
Technically actual resistance was at 6300 not 6500. ASI was artificially brought to 6500 level to make an easy exit for market players. When the 6300 level was broken many were optimistic that its going to be a positive rally that they are experiencing.

With regard to JKH I was constantly alerting the forum about the next price range going to be. For me JKH is not on a correction but on a "foreign drain".

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t29490-jkh-going-down-the-right-thing-right-moment

Market is always right. I am happy that I was also right.

13This is for smart Investors - 01 Empty Re: This is for smart Investors - 01 Tue Jul 09, 2013 8:31 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Prince,

Good.. We are not on the same page on ASI & JKH too... I agree on foreign exit to some extend since the US market has been announced attractive... But our returns have been much higher Wink

On the other hand, I would wait to see if this is a Hns.. Cuz we had one earlier and another one within 2 years is difficult to come up by given that we have somewhat achieved growth and int rates are going down and securities seems attractive. There are gloomy areas in China and other markets which were considered emerging by pros.. So a little slowdown in development could also be on the cards.

If ur theory is correct and if this is a Hns, then some buying should re-emerge and the market needs to rally once more to form the right shoulder.. Say at least to 6100-6200, also lowest point of the right shoulder should be lower than the
top of the left shoulder which is 5886.

Vol should decrease from Left to right.. We dont have vol data, do we?

In addition, the following could also have been taken as a Hns on those days, though we didnt..
This is for smart Investors - 01 Asi-210

Lets think this is a Hns.. Then it should look like this;

This is for smart Investors - 01 Asi310

14This is for smart Investors - 01 Empty Re: This is for smart Investors - 01 Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:42 am

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Smallville

Grate to see your analysis on ASI and HnS. Its really tempted me for a reply.

If I hear this two years ago , I have no other option but to be agreed with you. But do you really believe that "fundamentals" or "book theories" can be applied to understand the behavior of Sri Lankan stock market which is highly manipulated and  driven by lots of known and unknown external factors ?

I did the same mistake for a quite a long time but not anymore.

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