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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Next a Crash or a Bull Run

Next a Crash or a Bull Run

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1Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:27 am

dudi


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi members,would like to know about your views.some are of the view that market will crash again.some predict an imminent bull run

2Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sat Jul 13, 2013 12:23 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Big crash .... banks to release results on gold market value adjustments... not yet though Wink 

3Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sat Jul 13, 2013 1:40 pm

dudi


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
rainmaker,very scarey.when do u think market will crash?

4Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sat Jul 13, 2013 1:53 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Govt stepped in for the Gold crisis so they will apply more and more taxes till the case resolved. Many reputed places, I think know that Gold is a gamble too.. So results may be a bit shaky but I dont think its the end of banks Smile

5Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sat Jul 13, 2013 2:31 pm

malanp


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Value adjustment is not necessary right now since gold is a collateral, and off balance sheet item.

they can make the provision on non performing loans basis.

and gold is slowly going up, now $1280. most of loans were given when gold price was around 1500-1600 range, so 20% decrease in value will not affect that much.

other two favourable factors for banks are 10% tax on gold and exchange rate gone up to 130 from 126 thereby value of gold reserve gone up by 3%.

so altogether 13% loss coverage.

6Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sat Jul 13, 2013 3:04 pm

celtic tiger


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@dudi wrote:rainmaker,very scarey.when do u think market will crash?

Do you really think that he can give you a strait answer ?

7Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sat Jul 13, 2013 3:09 pm

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@dudi wrote:Hi members,would like to know about your views.some are of the view that market will crash again.some predict an imminent bull run
The overall market is trading at 12.06 times projected earnings, which (in my view) is only slightly above its fair value. Therefore, I do not expect either a crash or a bull run.
Having said that, certain shares have the potential to significantly outperform the market.

8Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sat Jul 13, 2013 4:11 pm

dudi


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
antonym,what are those shares that you think can out perform the others?

9Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sat Jul 13, 2013 8:44 pm

dudi


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
antonym,tell some thing friend

10Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sat Jul 13, 2013 9:42 pm

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@dudi wrote:antonym,what are those shares that you think can out perform the others?
@dudi: I have a couple of favorites, but will refrain from mentioning them here because 'one man's food may be another man's poison'. (Sorry to disappoint you.)
Instead, let me draw your attention to Warren Buffett's stock picking approach, which I try to imitate...
 
Buffett’s Philosophy and style
Investment in stocks is based on their intrinsic value, where value is measured by the ability to generate earnings and dividends over the years. Buffett targets successful businesses - those with expanding intrinsic values, which he seeks to buy at a price that makes economic sense, defined as earning an annual rate of return of at least 15% for at least five or ten years... The company should have been in existence for a considerable period of time.

Criteria for Initial Consideration
He prefers companies that are in businesses that are relatively easy to understand and analyze, and that have the ability to adjust their prices for inflation.

Other Factors
A strong upward trend in earnings
Conservative financing
A consistently high return on shareholder’s equity
A high level of retained earnings
Low level of spending needed to maintain current operations
Profitable use of retained earnings

 
There are some companies on the CSE that fulfil many of these criteria. The key is to find them, buy them - and hold them till they are discovered by the market.

11Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sat Jul 13, 2013 9:56 pm

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
I do not see any signs of a crash; neither any signs of a big bull run.
So it will be worse!!

12Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:44 pm

dudi


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
antonym thanks for your insight.sadly,Buffett's philosophy and style don't work with the stocks that are in the CSE although it should have been the case.you know this is wonderland

13Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:45 pm

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@dudi wrote:antonym thanks for your insight.sadly,Buffett's philosophy and style don't work with the stocks that are in the CSE although it should have been the case.you know this is wonderland
Even in this 'wonderland' that is the CSE, investors need to have a stock selection strategy - and Buffett's approach seems sensible: buy a business if it is available at a significant discount to its value.
 
In the absence of such an approach, we would be like this...
Alice: Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?
The Cheshire Cat: That depends a good deal on where you want to get to.
Alice: I don't much care where.
The Cheshire Cat: Then it doesn't much matter which way you go.

― Alice in Wonderland

14Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sun Jul 14, 2013 10:31 am

KDDND

KDDND
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Lets don't be panic......

Simply stay cool for another 3-4 weeks.....
Before August end... or mid September surely you will see the sign of where it heading to.....

In my guess its a UP turn....but by that time or close to that time

but it take it time to decide the correct time....foe then move...
until that time what ever the turn may appear...it will turn back to almost to the normal/previous position....

no theories..... just based on my observations during the last 1 year.....!!!
GL!

15Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sun Jul 14, 2013 10:59 am

kukumarx


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
At the moment the picture is not clear cut and there is a lot of volatility. Therefore the market is very difficult to predict.

Lets look at the recent past.

November/December 2012. Market at 5300 Interest rates were at their highest. In the budget MR had announces tax exemptions for govt bonds. Anyone would think that the picture for the market was bleak. Then Govt announces interest rate cuts ( probably with an eye on elections). This was against IMF recommendations which govt had followed up to then. Market took off to 6000+ levels.

Recently every thing was looking good. Interest rates had moved down, inflation was under control. Then Ben Bernanke makes an announcement that the fed may ease stimulus. Foreigners pull out of bonds and out of the market. Pressure on the SLRupee. Market starts crashing.

This illustrates how difficult and volatile the scenario is. Too many unpredictable variables.

The only prediction one can make is that unpredictable things will happen with predictable regularity.Smile

16Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sun Jul 14, 2013 1:41 pm

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@kukumarx wrote: Foreigners pull out of bonds and out of the market. Pressure on the SLRupee. Market starts crashing.
Same thing in India.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/fii-activity/fiis-pull-out-3675-bnindian-capital-mktsjune_908685.html

17Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:04 pm

wappula

wappula
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@kukumarx wrote:At the moment the picture is not clear cut and there is a lot of volatility. Therefore the market is very difficult to predict.

Lets look at the recent past.

November/December 2012. Market at 5300 Interest rates were at their highest. In the budget MR had announces tax exemptions for govt bonds. Anyone would think that the picture for the market was bleak. Then Govt announces interest rate cuts ( probably with an eye on elections). This was against IMF recommendations which govt had followed up to then. Market took off to 6000+ levels.

Recently every thing was looking good. Interest rates had moved down, inflation was under control. Then Ben Bernanke makes an announcement that the fed may ease stimulus. Foreigners pull out of bonds and out of the market. Pressure on the SLRupee. Market starts crashing.

This illustrates how difficult and volatile the scenario is. Too many unpredictable variables.

The only prediction one can make is that unpredictable things will happen with predictable regularity.Smile

thank you kukumarks, good explanation...

18Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:10 pm

bullrun

bullrun
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
But so far we show net purchases by foreigners. How do they decide to buy? Don't they consider theories or trend?

19Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sun Jul 14, 2013 7:40 pm

notme

notme
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
when the last significant downfall locals did get away the market .but how many bulk buying made by them at higher price later .no wonder if it happen again .

20Next a Crash or a Bull Run Empty Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Mon Jul 15, 2013 11:58 am

kukumarx


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@bullrun wrote:But so far we show net purchases by foreigners. How do they decide to buy? Don't they consider theories or trend?

I wish I knew!

Anyway the question as I understood it was for the short term.
Will the market move up or down (in the next few days, weeks or months.) My answer was from this perspective


In the long term (5 year horizon) I am bullish about the market and the country. And I am not alone. Look at the other people making huge bets on the country. JKH with its new project. Shangrila, Damro etc etc.

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