Next a Crash or a Bull Run

Redbulls · 21 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sun Jul 14, 2013 1:41 pm

Redbulls

Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6053
Join date : 2012-02-14

@kukumarx wrote: Foreigners pull out of bonds and out of the market. Pressure on the SLRupee. Market starts crashing.

Same thing in India.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/fii-activity/fiis-pull-out-3675-bnindian-capital-mktsjune_908685.html

wappula · 22 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:04 pm

wappula

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 123
Join date : 2011-04-21

@kukumarx wrote:At the moment the picture is not clear cut and there is a lot of volatility. Therefore the market is very difficult to predict.

Lets look at the recent past.

November/December 2012. Market at 5300 Interest rates were at their highest. In the budget MR had announces tax exemptions for govt bonds. Anyone would think that the picture for the market was bleak. Then Govt announces interest rate cuts ( probably with an eye on elections). This was against IMF recommendations which govt had followed up to then. Market took off to 6000+ levels.

Recently every thing was looking good. Interest rates had moved down, inflation was under control. Then Ben Bernanke makes an announcement that the fed may ease stimulus. Foreigners pull out of bonds and out of the market. Pressure on the SLRupee. Market starts crashing.

This illustrates how difficult and volatile the scenario is. Too many unpredictable variables.

The only prediction one can make is that unpredictable things will happen with predictable regularity.

thank you kukumarks, good explanation...

bullrun · 23 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:10 pm

bullrun

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 780
Join date : 2011-01-31

But so far we show net purchases by foreigners. How do they decide to buy? Don't they consider theories or trend?

notme · 24 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sun Jul 14, 2013 7:40 pm

notme

Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 358
Join date : 2011-11-21

when the last significant downfall locals did get away the market .but how many bulk buying made by them at higher price later .no wonder if it happen again .

kukumarx · 25 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Mon Jul 15, 2013 11:58 am

kukumarx

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 128
Join date : 2012-12-11

@bullrun wrote:But so far we show net purchases by foreigners. How do they decide to buy? Don't they consider theories or trend?

I wish I knew!

Anyway the question as I understood it was for the short term.
Will the market move up or down (in the next few days, weeks or months.) My answer was from this perspective

In the long term (5 year horizon) I am bullish about the market and the country. And I am not alone. Look at the other people making huge bets on the country. JKH with its new project. Shangrila, Damro etc etc.

Slstock · 26 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Mon Jul 15, 2013 12:19 pm

Slstock

Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6610
Equity Stars : 12260
Reputation : 1158
Join date : 2011-01-22

All I can do is remind
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t29674-future-at-cse

Langa nobalanna Dura Balanna ( don;t always look short term , look long term).
What do you see? Crash or bull?

Then decide what to do.

K.Haputantri · 27 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Mon Jul 15, 2013 12:39 pm

K.Haputantri

Co-Admin

Posts : 2274
Equity Stars : 7768
Reputation : 390
Join date : 2011-12-06
Age : 71
Location : Moratuwa

@slstock wrote:All I can do is remind
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t29674-future-at-cse

Langa nobalanna Dura Balanna ( don;t always look short term , look long term).
What do you see? Crash or bull?

Then decide what to do.

Agree 100%. Stock Markets are volatile by nature. One has to have a long term view when investing. Short-term ups & downs need to be treated as opportunities and not obstacales. Avoide craps & invest in fundamantally sound stocks with your own savings and no credit please.

dudi · 28 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Mon Jul 15, 2013 1:41 pm

dudi

Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 320
Equity Stars : 3331
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2013-05-13

guys,look at what stockmania speculate about the SEC?are things not really going so good?if so,then a crash for sure

Slstock · 29 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Mon Jul 15, 2013 1:51 pm

Slstock

Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6610
Equity Stars : 12260
Reputation : 1158
Join date : 2011-01-22

Then it might be better to Exit and invest in an FD. No headaches.

@dudi wrote:guys,look at what stockmania speculate about the SEC?are things not really going so good?if so,then a crash for sure

D.G.Dayaratne · 30 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Mon Jul 15, 2013 1:53 pm

D.G.Dayaratne

Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1716
Equity Stars : 7254
Reputation : 52
Join date : 2011-12-13
Location : Kotte

No economic reason for a crash or Bull Run

Long term upward trend will continue

Sponsored content

Latest topics

Next a Crash or a Bull Run

21 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sun Jul 14, 2013 1:41 pm

Redbulls

22 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:04 pm

wappula

23 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:10 pm

bullrun

24 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Sun Jul 14, 2013 7:40 pm

notme

25 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Mon Jul 15, 2013 11:58 am

kukumarx

26 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Mon Jul 15, 2013 12:19 pm

Slstock

27 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Mon Jul 15, 2013 12:39 pm

K.Haputantri

28 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Mon Jul 15, 2013 1:41 pm

dudi

29 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Mon Jul 15, 2013 1:51 pm

Slstock

30 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run Mon Jul 15, 2013 1:53 pm

D.G.Dayaratne

31 Re: Next a Crash or a Bull Run

Sponsored content