REEF the forgotten gem

aero · 41 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Fri Jul 19, 2013 11:02 am

aero

Manager - Equity Analytics

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Join date : 2011-03-12

i believe 2.1 is strong support level so i bought few days ago..today sold at 2.4.. again bought at 2.2 today...waiting for reef group mega rally ...

Jana1 · 42 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Tue Jul 23, 2013 2:00 pm

Jana1

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

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Join date : 2011-06-17

@aero wrote:i believe 2.1 is strong support level so i bought few days ago..today sold at 2.4.. again bought at 2.2 today...waiting for reef group mega rally ...

If there is mega rally, Reef group should have started moving by this week along JKH rally. Hopefully Dist also will follow. If reef fail to make rally before October Reef warrants will be trading at very discounted price during November and December... It seems there is emance selling pressure for warrants as per last week selling. For 600k qty it unable to push beyond 2.4, but previous rallies were different... I am not a holder of warrants but pattern reader to grasp at right time...

smallville · 43 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:11 am

smallville

Associate Director - Equity Analytics

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@aero wrote:i believe 2.1 is strong support level so i bought few days ago..today sold at 2.4.. again bought at 2.2 today...waiting for reef group mega rally ...

Oh.. I was wondering who's was the culprit involved in killing the momentum for 30 cents scratch

OMG... So its u.. affraid

smallville · 44 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:00 am

smallville

Associate Director - Equity Analytics

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@Jana1 wrote:

@aero wrote:i believe 2.1 is strong support level so i bought few days ago..today sold at 2.4.. again bought at 2.2 today...waiting for reef group mega rally ...

If there is mega rally, Reef group should have started moving by this week along JKH rally. Hopefully Dist also will follow. If reef fail to make rally before October Reef warrants will be trading at very discounted price during November and December... It seems there is emance selling pressure for warrants as per last week selling. For 600k qty it unable to push beyond 2.4, but previous rallies were different... I am not a holder of warrants but pattern reader to grasp at right time...

To be honest, I failed miserable in pattern reading.. I remember Arena does it too.. I can only rely on chart patterns.. But usual 14 day crossin 50 Day MA never worked for REEF.W19 when the history is considered..

In June 2012, this had hit 2.1 and ultimately ended up @ 9.0 within two weeks.
In August 2012, this had hit 5.4 and ultimately ended up @ 7.8 within 8-10 days.
In April 2013, this had hit 2.3 and slowly hit 4.1 within two weeks. Then slowly it climbed down to correct more than 100% so in July 2013, we saw this landing at its all time low of 2.0 and...............................................

All these times we saw increase volume over 1 Mil to really qualify for an uptrend from its bottom levels, and sudden increase of vols before it hit peaks.

The salient features in above up-trends were;
RSI>40, MACD crossover, ADX crossing or indication of strong up-trend
which is also we're seeing these days..

But... Y'day there was a slowdown...

So how sure r u abt ur pattern reading? Razz

Jana1 · 45 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:53 am

Jana1

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 703
Join date : 2011-06-17

@smallville wrote:

@Jana1 wrote:

@aero wrote:i believe 2.1 is strong support level so i bought few days ago..today sold at 2.4.. again bought at 2.2 today...waiting for reef group mega rally ...

If there is mega rally, Reef group should have started moving by this week along JKH rally. Hopefully Dist also will follow. If reef fail to make rally before October Reef warrants will be trading at very discounted price during November and December... It seems there is emance selling pressure for warrants as per last week selling. For 600k qty it unable to push beyond 2.4, but previous rallies were different... I am not a holder of warrants but pattern reader to grasp at right time...

To be honest, I failed miserable in pattern reading.. I remember Arena does it too.. I can only rely on chart patterns.. But usual 14 day crossin 50 Day MA never worked for REEF.W19 when the history is considered..

In June 2012, this had hit 2.1 and ultimately ended up @ 9.0 within two weeks.
In August 2012, this had hit 5.4 and ultimately ended up @ 7.8 within 8-10 days.
In April 2013, this had hit 2.3 and slowly hit 4.1 within two weeks. Then slowly it climbed down to correct more than 100% so in July 2013, we saw this landing at its all time low of 2.0 and...............................................

All these times we saw increase volume over 1 Mil to really qualify for an uptrend from its bottom levels, and sudden increase of vols before it hit peaks.

The salient features in above up-trends were;
RSI>40, MACD crossover, ADX crossing or indication of strong up-trend
which is also we're seeing these days..

But... Y'day there was a slowdown...

So how sure r u abt ur pattern reading?

@ Small,

May be your way of trading and risk taking would be differ from mine. My main focus of depreciating shares (Fundamental values depreciate or enough risk within reasonable time) like warrants where voting trading at very discounted price than the warrants and heavy loss making co like CIFL, TWOD my approach is very conservative. Only if I know this share could move up (more than 75% possibility), then only I will buy.

Just consider REEF.W19, Morethan 600k Shares even couldn't push shares more than 0.2 cents even at its bottom. Doesn't it smell sumthng strange if you clearly look back history??

08 June 2012- 280 k shares push price from 2.3 to 3

11/June 125k shares pushed from 3 to 3.5

19/June 1111k pushed price from 4.6 to 6.7

This rally because of maturity period of W16 warrant.

This time 600k had done nothing, the price return backed where it started.. That smell sum1 is dumping. If you want go and check my history where CIFL had rally from 2.5 to 2.8 I warned sum1 dumping. I don't know hw many listened. But today selling at 1.2- more than 100 % lost..

For REEF.W16 I didn't get that sort of strange signal but I am not sure its direction. So I prefer to buy at cheap rather putting money on unknown stuffs...

Some corrections:

Aug-2012 rally cannot be considered as fresh rally. It was continuation of June/2012 drama to dump.. Now the new separate chapter. When higher qty is be ing sold at small price up then very high chance to ended up in small rally even rally followed by next two days. That what happened during April 2013.

I expect a big overall mkt uptrend within next two months, if so it could make better rally may be 3.0-3.5. The question is should sum1 need to take that much risk as mkt goes up most fundamental could give better return....

smallville · 46 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:30 pm

smallville

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Yes Aug 2012 rally was a continuation after a small accumulation.. Ppl dumped too..

The last announcement of REEF is that DJ had purchased 1.3 Mil shares @ 19.20;
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/8491363319244_568.pdf

This is the rate it has come up recently too..

And that's coming up after a sale of 2.5 Mil shares by the said directors in Dec 2012. How smart?
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/941355132943_568.pdf

In November 2012, fresh 17.9 mil shares were added to the list after the warrant conversion. Which was a failure too as they only gained a bit more than half of what they expected to gain.

As per the 31-03-13 results, REEF group has made some profits, not too bad for a hotel that has recently been refurbished.
However, an EPS of 0.37 is peanuts (that's too from Finance and share dealing profits and have to check the no of shares) but its worth for a start.
(They say there are 96,562,155 shares as of 31-03-13)

In total there are 62,922,604 REEF.W19 warrants to be exercised while 41,519,727 are owned by top 20 and 21,402,877 warrants are in free float too..

So we're betting on a play with 21.4 Mil shares..

Ppl dumped at the last runs.. May have accumulated too at 2-2.5 levels..
I'm seeing a weak ADX signal and a ADX cross over as of today as well.. I'm a bit releived as MACD is also positive..
So lets watch Wink

Jana1 · 47 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Fri Aug 02, 2013 1:50 pm

Jana1

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@smallville wrote:Yes Aug 2012 rally was a continuation after a small ac]cumulation.. Ppl dumped too..

The last announcement of REEF is that DJ had purchased 1.3 Mil shares @ 19.20;
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/8491363319244_568.pdf

This is the rate it has come up recently too..

And that's coming up after a sale of 2.5 Mil shares by the said directors in Dec 2012. How smart?
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/941355132943_568.pdf

In November 2012, fresh 17.9 mil shares were added to the list after the warrant conversion. Which was a failure too as they only gained a bit more than half of what they expected to gain.

As per the 31-03-13 results, REEF group has made some profits, not too bad for a hotel that has recently been refurbished.
However, an EPS of 0.37 is peanuts (that's too from Finance and share dealing profits and have to check the no of shares) but its worth for a start.
(They say there are 96,562,155 shares as of 31-03-13)

In total there are 62,922,604 REEF.W19 warrants to be exercised while 41,519,727 are owned by top 20 and 21,402,877 warrants are in free float too..

So we're betting on a play with 21.4 Mil shares..

Ppl dumped at the last runs.. May have accumulated too at 2-2.5 levels..
I'm seeing a weak ADX signal and a ADX cross over as of today as well.. I'm a bit releived as MACD is also positive..
So lets watch

I am not sure about your interest in mathematics. If you trust ADX, see attached photo of REEF.W19. In my picture A-E points ADX misbehaved, where as it predicted only twice (rally between B-C and D-E). When we thick about ADX, 14 days is considered as standard. 14 days was being selected was justified by researchers as that is common practise. According the probability of successful prediction for REEF.W (2/7)-28%. I think with common sense by identifying mkt trend and experience you could predict about 75%..

When I type this message ADX reached nearly 20, that means there could be a uptrend with the possibility of 25%..

[img]https://servimg.com/view/18359636/4[/img

Jana1 · 48 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:45 pm

Jana1

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@Light of Hope wrote:Not necessarily... as per how I understand you

I would love to see this at 1.50, I have enough funds to buy more of this...

@Jana1 wrote:

@Light of Hope wrote:Side doesn't matter. I will sell now and buy at 1.50, if you could give logical reasons.

@Jana1 wrote:

@Light of Hope wrote:@ Jana could you explain why?

@Light, Could you tell me which side are you in?? Expecting uptrend from 2.1 level??

2.1 was its previous low before 1 year.. Den it went to near 6, if I remember correctly, upon mature of REEF.w16.

For depreciating asset, like warrant which is trading under highly over its intrinsic value, speculators can't push its previous high unless voting share move up beyond its mature price. Touching Reef Rs-40 within 1-2 month is very less likely. So if u need decent profit or good run Warrent should be pushed down before show up again...

Hope, you would be love to see now.... Smile

I guess you may be running out of fear and stopped buying Reef. W at present. you could collect what ever the qty u want since u worried about qty. Hope u misunderstood me when u made above comment. Ur comment looks like smart but the facts u provided were not...

smallville · 49 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Thu Aug 15, 2013 10:58 pm

smallville

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@Jana1 wrote:

I am not sure about your interest in mathematics. If you trust ADX, see attached photo of REEF.W19. In my picture A-E points ADX misbehaved, where as it predicted only twice (rally between B-C and D-E). When we thick about ADX, 14 days is considered as standard. 14 days was being selected was justified by researchers as that is common practise. According the probability of successful prediction for REEF.W (2/7)-28%. I think with common sense by identifying mkt trend and experience you could predict about 75%..

When I type this message ADX reached nearly 20, that means there could be a uptrend with the possibility of 25%..

[img]https://servimg.com/view/18359636/4[/img

Just tell me how have you understood ADX behavior pls?

U think ADX up means uptrend and vice-versa????

U think when ADX reached 20 or below the counter is oversold?? Twisted Evil

As I previously hinted, ADX weak signal brought it down despite my good hope on MACD. So I gotta give ADX the credit for signaling it in advance.

Jana1 · 50 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:42 am

Jana1

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 703
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Join date : 2011-06-17

@smallville wrote:

@Jana1 wrote:

I am not sure about your interest in mathematics. If you trust ADX, see attached photo of REEF.W19. In my picture A-E points ADX misbehaved, where as it predicted only twice (rally between B-C and D-E). When we thick about ADX, 14 days is considered as standard. 14 days was being selected was justified by researchers as that is common practise. According the probability of successful prediction for REEF.W (2/7)-28%. I think with common sense by identifying mkt trend and experience you could predict about 75%..

When I type this message ADX reached nearly 20, that means there could be a uptrend with the possibility of 25%..

[img]https://servimg.com/view/18359636/4[/img

Just tell me how have you understood ADX behavior pls?

U think ADX up means uptrend and vice-versa????

U think when ADX reached 20 or below the counter is oversold??

As I previously hinted, ADX weak signal brought it down despite my good hope on MACD. So I gotta give ADX the credit for signaling it in advance.

Am I miserably missing sumthng??

To my memory, A low ADX, typically less than 20 indicates a share price without trend and low volatility. A crossover above this level 20 can mark a beginning of a trend (bearish or bullish). If the ADX has a value above 40 and starts to decline is a sign of weakness of the current trend.The ADX does not reveal the direction of the trend, its use is to determine whether or not the market is in trend and evaluate its strength.

I have less hope with bollinger and MACD as it rarely works and no psychological phenomena I could figure it out....

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REEF the forgotten gem

41 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Fri Jul 19, 2013 11:02 am

aero

42 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Tue Jul 23, 2013 2:00 pm

Jana1

43 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:11 am

smallville

44 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:00 am

smallville

45 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:53 am

Jana1

46 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:30 pm

smallville

47 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Fri Aug 02, 2013 1:50 pm

Jana1

48 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:45 pm

Jana1

49 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Thu Aug 15, 2013 10:58 pm

smallville

50 Re: REEF the forgotten gem Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:42 am

Jana1

51 Re: REEF the forgotten gem

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