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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » CORPORATE CHRONICLE™ » NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000)

NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000)

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21NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty NESTLE lanka Tue May 07, 2013 1:20 pm

NEM


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Dileepa wrote:On a P/E based valuation, yes NEST is over valued.
But on a intrinsic valuation NEST is not over valued.
Eg: graham formula gives about 1900/=.
#55 (8 + 2 * 14) = 1980
I personally believe that NEST will stable around 1900 by the end of this year.

It is true that in terms of DY(2.9%), there are better counters.
But the dividend growth rate of last 5 years is over 20%.
Therefore current yield should double in every 3.5 years.
#ln(2)*100/20 = 3.47
Also following record is unmatched by any counter.
NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Nest10

PS. my views may be bit biased here. I'm long on NEST
I do reinvest all my dividends on NEST irrespective of the current price.
I entered at 900 level and currently my gain is over 1M. My DY is 3.6%
NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Pf_nes10
This is a great share to start DRiP investing.
1800 is not too high to enter,
but you have to go slowly, building up a safety buffer during the process.
Yes, you can apply this formula for companies with good consistent future growth. Also Nest is a company like that. But i think the assessed growth rate is too much. It's always better to apply a growth rate 60 % of last decade growth rate ( 10 years may be good), So it gives a valuation of Rs 1400. But with high dividend it gives some extra value as well so Rs1500 may be the suited value. But your valuation is correct. Thanx for giving a great answer and probably the best justification with facts and figures. Thx mate

22NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Thu Aug 08, 2013 8:25 am

dudi


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Will NEST reach 15000 one day/
Hello everyone,please express your expert views on this.thanks

23NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Thu Aug 08, 2013 8:51 am

Humble


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@dudi wrote:Hello everyone,please express your expert views on this.thanks

In about 10 years - I guess so Smile

24NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Thu Aug 08, 2013 9:17 am

dudi


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Ya.it looks pretty much so.no wonder if it happens.a great company

25NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Thu Aug 08, 2013 10:09 am

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Tell me what the exchange rate will be at that time

26NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Thu Aug 08, 2013 11:46 am

dudi


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
rain,ex rate of which currency?

27NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Thu Aug 08, 2013 12:02 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Yes.

When they ban Anchor and other milk imports forever.

28NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Thu Aug 08, 2013 2:37 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I was referring to LKR - USD cross rate

A Holland based firm was the global leader. Then Chernobyl occurred and it was all over red rover!

Fonterra was the combination of two large cooperatives to tackle Nestle. A cooperative where individual farmers were brought in as shareholders to encourage production and profit participation

In 2012 in order to raise capital, units were sold and the units were treated like shares with equal dividends. Australian fund manager Perpetual owns 10% of the outstanding units.

However Chinese investors preferred to buy NZ farms directly instead of the units (i.e. it's a cooperative)

Fonterra is large.... very large. It is like Ingham (one of the chicken providers to KFC, McDonalds etc).

Lets see how successful the new milk policy ...... Rolling Eyes

29NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Wed Aug 14, 2013 2:45 pm

sashimaal

sashimaal
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
May happen sooner than we think lol! 

30NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:45 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@sashimaal wrote:May happen sooner than we think  lol! 
Because it is the only listed milk powder producer ?

History Form 2008, (roughly )
appreciated 100% in 13 months
another 100% next 17 months,
another 100%  in next 12 months
total  3.5 years

with the new developments,

100% 2000 -> 4000 in 18 months max
100% 4000 -> 8000 in 18 months
100% 8000 -> 16,000 in 18 months

Total 4.5 years

It can happen in 3.5 to 4.5 years : Between January 2017- and January 2018 !

NOTE: THIS IS JUST MATHEMATICS . Do not take seriously for anything. (for buying or challenging me ) Extrapolation is very dangerous in stock valuation.

31NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Thu Aug 15, 2013 5:26 pm

malanp


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Share trading, mostly reverses to the mean.

we never know, it will reach 600 after 4 years

32NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Thu Aug 15, 2013 6:22 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
ya every upturn is backed by a few crossings,then it go to heaven

33NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:07 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Over 90 % is with the main foreign shareholder.

They siphon each and every cent they earn here in Sri lanka to overseas owners. (in billions ) *

Nothing left to make it grow.
Asset value of the share is just 47 Rupees while they earn over 100 rupees per year.

----

* Is this somewhat similar to paying in billions to import milk powder ? (except some cash going to our farmers instead of to NZ farmers )

34NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:23 pm

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:Over 90 % is with the main foreign shareholder.

They siphon each and every cent they earn here in Sri lanka to overseas owners. (in billions ) *

Nothing left to make it grow.
Asset value of the share is just 47 Rupees while they earn over 100 rupees per year.

----

* Is this somewhat similar to paying in billions to import milk powder  ? (except some cash going to our farmers instead of to NZ farmers )
At least they share some value with locals, Jobs to farmers,employers, Government tax and CSR etc,

35NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Thu Aug 15, 2013 10:45 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@malanp wrote:
Share trading, mostly reverses to the mean.

we never know, it will reach 600 after 4 years
Should be in a disaster situation then.. Or if they go for a sub div.

36NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Fri Aug 16, 2013 4:17 pm

sashimaal

sashimaal
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@mark wrote:ya every upturn is backed by a few crossings,then it go to heaven
Another crossing happened - at RS 2500

Quantity is bigger than the previous ones

Very Happy 

37NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty NEST going to run? Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:19 pm

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
finally i was tempted to enter to nest and bought 1950-1999.

There was a 10k trade at 1950 yesterday and a crossing done today.

I feel it need a run, btw wil exit if it touch 1850.

Any idea guys?

38NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:26 pm

sikka89


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Marka it's not only NEST, it's market.alien alien 

39NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:35 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
budu ambooo api owata nehe.. if u have 100 shares and if 100 rupees down, sorry ma thama..

40NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Fri Oct 04, 2013 5:09 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
how many shares u bought mark, if u think its ok to answer, if not also no issues friend?

I try to buy at 1,870 yesterday but it failed, i wanted less than 10 only

41NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Sat Oct 05, 2013 6:14 am

Dileepa


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi mark,
NEST is not going to run, it has a beautiful step function which is very easy to predict Very Happy
(Though I'm surprised by the last spike) 
NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Nest_r10
Your buy price is kind of optimal.
See that RSI 40 line, It has been below that level only 0.9% of the time for the last 10 years.
So I would say 99% of the time you are pretty much safe cheers 

small,
That doesn't hurt once you build the "nest egg".
(Specially when you know that you are going to get a Rs.60/= dividend)
I was watching this going to 2500 and coming back to 2000  Cool 
As you are a seasoned investor,
I really believe that you should hold this(at lease 10 shares). Wink 
NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Nest_210

42NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:49 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Dear Dileepa,

Coming colours are not good....

I would have sold all NEST NOW.

This is what i see.

I think you have been on the collection spree,I may be wrong but technically its in the SELL towards 1250 levels.

So I would exit all NEST because it broke 2000 level SUPPORT which was for me a mental support for most traders.

I do not own NEST at the moment.

43NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:59 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I am looking @ 1600 to 1250 levels. which would be good to re-enter.
Anyways not meant to influence your decision to SELL.

Trade with care
Good Luck
TAH

44NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Sat Oct 05, 2013 9:58 am

glad


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Heard that milk powder prices are set to rise.
What effect will this have?

45NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:44 am

dudi


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
some say NEST share price will reach Rs15000 one day

46NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:49 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@dudi wrote:some say NEST share price will reach Rs15000 one day
IMO NEST should go for a split to increase liquidity.... Very Happy 

47NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Sat Oct 05, 2013 12:05 pm

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Good suggestion Dileepa, I can afford 10 shares Smile

After Feb 2011, RSI of NEST has come below 40 only 5 times.

On daily chart;
At 1912, ADX gave a BUY crossover but no significant SELL signal yet. And around 1950 MACD & SAR also gave the BUY signal.
However, at 2200, MACD indicated a SELL.

Going by the history, MACD & ADX crossovers had given accurate BUY signals. SELL signals are, however, a bit delayed.

50% Fib is around 1800 (rounded). This Fib value can be deviated from the point the lower value is chosen to draw the Fib. I just chose a point where an uptrend is started.

Now at 1950, ADX BUY crossover signal is visible. But still MACD has not shown anything.
At 1950, we can also see there's this pullback support line from the previous run. I'd wait to see..

NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Nest_o10

48NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:04 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@dudi wrote:some say NEST share price will reach Rs15000 one day
Don't get too optimistic about NEST

NEST market cap in rupees 104b which you can convert to a US$ figure ....

Cadbury (all worldwide operations) was sold for US$19b to Kraft.
Fonterra market cap is around US$9b

.... go figure Razz 





49NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:06 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Note that in the above Buffet holds 8% of what used to be called Kraft - now known as Mondelez International (Cadbury and National Milk and Kraft Corporation)

50NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Empty Re: NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:09 pm

Dileepa


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
TAH, small,
It is always interesting to see the views of other technical analysts
and thank you for the interesting inputs study 

TAH, did you considered the trade volume when breaking support level 2000.
Because NEST is giving a lot of false sell signals recently.
NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Nest_s10
All these red circles are false sell signals generated due to couple of low volume trades.
Most of the time dip was momentarily.

NESTLE LANKA PLC (NEST.N0000) - Page 2 Nest_n10
I have been trying to refine the neural network, but without a success.
Neural network do work for many counters as it learn with the time.
But NEST is an exceptional case.
So be careful when trading NEST on signals.
I failed miserably, and that made me even more curious.
Therefore I'm holding this possibly for the life time. scratch

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