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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume

DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume

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21DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume - Page 2 Empty Re: DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume Mon Aug 19, 2013 4:04 pm

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ Small, See this link
http://research.srilankaequity.com/t810-asi-vol-and-trades-correlation#922

You can see many zig-zag very high volume which is not related to ASi movement. These are normalised graph-means divided by average over the period.

Always higher trades indicate uptrend ahead.. The normalized value above 1 for trades can say sum sort of positive movement ahead. The average trade for the period is 6942. So if this week trade is about 8000, you could say possible up trend ahead. If normalised value pass 2 that mean definite uptrend (trades above 6942*2)..Check the points A,B,D and H where ASI can be predicted 1-2 weeks ahead of uptrend.

But check the volume, even at point A it was high at mkt at peak.

B- was ok.
C- Dumping (less trades with high vol- sig ASI drop about 150 points)
D- very high when mkt was about to take turn back-no significant change of ASI.
F- failed.
G-Failed
H-predicted well

I -failed.

So many Zig-Zag in between B&C which failed to identify, sum1 may say dumping.

The conclusion would be,

1) If u want to see uptrend consider trades only. Higher the trades higher the chance of ASI uptrend sooner.

2) With higher vol and less trades mean dumping is going on.

Vol and TO are almost similar pattern. So deleted TO graph as it become complicated...

U could add sum more views- so I can think about it...

22DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume - Page 2 Empty Re: DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:06 pm

smallville


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Jana1,

Well I dont have a updated graph at the moment.. Need to make up one with the figures you guys gave first.. Even I could not update the Amibroker graphs due to bein busy Sad

Diff ppl have diff techniques.. May be ur approach is good for u2.. I mostly use ADX to measure the strength. For me the strength of the signal is important than the market direction. The best example is when MACD showed a crossing ADX showed the weak signal in REEF.19, and needless to say it came to 1.50 too Wink.

No of trades for a share, for example can increase if a share is bought in 10,100 chunks.. Or even 200, 300 chunks.. This can easily mislead investors/traders.. Say that ur selling 10000 shares and if I want to buy 8000 of it, I can still buy it in chunks of 100 makin it to 80 trades know? So would ppl think the share has too much demand then?

23DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume - Page 2 Empty Re: DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume Tue Aug 20, 2013 5:24 am

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:Jana1,

No of trades for a share, for example can increase if a share is bought in 10,100 chunks.. Or even 200, 300 chunks.. This can easily mislead investors/traders.. Say that ur selling 10000 shares and if I want to buy 8000 of it, I can still buy it in chunks of 100 makin it to 80 trades know? So would ppl think the share has too much demand then?
I guess you are wrong Small...Smile

Let hypothetically assume, u have 50 million liquid money and I am a average trader with 500,000 rupees. When both of us invest in PAP I will buy 1000-5000 of PAP in one shot, rather I could go with 100 shares in 50 trade. If I do so I am manipulator my intention is to keep mkt active. If you think that even If I wanna increase trades then I can go with 1 shares per trade..Probably in a month time I will get notice from SEC for clarification..Smile. You have to think about general behaviour. People are not crazy to manipulate trades. It consume significant time- processing time for brokers as well.

We should trust on general phenomena. I would go with 1000-5000 shares per shot, mostly per day whereas u, who hold millions, will buy 100,000-500,000 shares per day of PAP. You wouldn't waste ur time with 1000 shares. Higher the capacity higher the expected return is. So need more volume with less trade. How many guys like u will be in mky?? few hundreds. But guys like me must in thousands... We are the guys who keep mkt active-not u...

If you think about logically u would probably accept my argument.   Analyse the data carefully...Even volume could be easily manipulated by penny stocks like SEMB.x0000 or near maturity date of warrants which has no fundamental value. all 100mn shares would be traded in two days..Smile


Yes I remember about ADX facts u provided. I have less experience with that since I miserably failed with MACD and Bollinger band with GRAN, just blindly followed. Then later studies I found those techniques rarely work and need better understanding about macro behaviour of the mkt... I guess common sense and rational thinking is more than enough.....Smile

In ur comment under REEF, u said.

@smallville wrote:
Ppl dumped at the last runs.. May have accumulated too at 2-2.5 levels..
I'm seeing a weak ADX signal and a ADX cross over as of today as well.. I'm a bit relieved as MACD is also positive..
So lets watch Wink
This mean u were expecting a possible run ahead or the price wouldn't fall from that price range. Am I right?? At the date u made this comment ADX was about 32 and was declining that mean it became less active..But MACD indicate positive cross over -bullish cross over.

So th price was 2 and it came 1.5 a months time..Now MACD positive ADX is about 23 which came 18 few weeks before. Can you say possibility of uptrend?? So buying signal. Am I right??

I would pbly say yes. It could go up. but I would wait and see for few more weeks....

24DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume - Page 2 Empty Re: DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume Tue Aug 20, 2013 1:20 pm

smallville


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
No you would not go with 1 share trades cuz its costly with the CSD tax ultimately.. As I can remember, less than 50 they charge each trade tax.
So if u buy 100 in 2x50 that's 1.02%x2 in tax (as my memory serves after the tax changes).
In addition, its a time consuming task.. Who'd have all the time even if they want to manipulate.. As u said SEC could also be watchin.. But buying 100,200 chunks no one can blame u.. Cuz its ur policy to watch the market behaviour and buy Cool 

Then again, if ppl want u and I cant say that they dont wanna manipulate prices cuz we all like to see our counters go up and wanna sell when have a decent profit, aren't we?
Mostly big guys buy big chunks and advertise, its good news...i.e. remember the pumps n dumps of PMB, CLND, PCH, etc...??
But small guys can do what I hinted just cuz they dont have the capacity to buy a lot but want to show some interest to the crowd.. Say, 10000 lot cleared within 5 mins may mean a lot when some stocks have no activities for a long time.. So I may be wrong, but its possible

Abt REEF.W19;

Yes I thought that MACD cross-over would take it above 2.3 but was wrong, so now I learnt to give preference to
ADX cuz I saw it giving correct signal strengths for many counters. MACD is anyway a delayed signal ;(

25DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume - Page 2 Empty Re: DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume Wed Aug 21, 2013 3:43 am

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ Small,

Volume also can be easily manipulated if that is da intention. Broker can buy 100mn SEMB.x and trade it in between their account for 3 days. Guys who play with CTC,NEST,JKH can easily do. Trades also can be manipulated if that is their intention. By manipulating those figures they may not be able to manipulate mkt since very few people study those aspects which perhaps not enough to sustain mkt. I guess it should occur under natural phenomena-shouldn't be under manipulation drama.

I strongly believe indications given by Trade and volume, mainly trade- for uptrend. If you spend sometimes with the data that I provided in excel / with my uploaded graph you would probably agree with what I said. The guy who find what theory works in the present mkt would be the winner rather relying old theories which mostly applicable for developed mkts with high liquidity- not for frontier mkts. I got to dig my head and see ADX drama...

26DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume - Page 2 Empty Re: DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:44 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@smallville wrote:Jana1 & Redbulls,

Thanks for your data.. Trade is not important for charting purposses.. What's more important is Vol. Do u also have Open High low close figures in these?

Since we have OHLC data to some extent, adding the vol would be a good cause if not.

Thanks a lot.. ;)Cheers!!
http://research.srilankaequity.com/t813-asi-ohlc-from-19-03-2012-to-21-08-2013#926

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

27DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume - Page 2 Empty Re: DirectFN Wrong Turnover and Volume Thu Aug 22, 2013 3:11 pm

LSE

LSE
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@smallville wrote:
Abt REEF.W19;

Yes I thought that MACD cross-over would take it above 2.3 but was wrong, so now I learnt to give preference to
ADX cuz I saw it giving correct signal strengths for many counters. MACD is anyway a delayed signal ;(


@Jana1 wrote:

This mean u were expecting a possible run ahead or the price wouldn't fall from that price range. Am I right?? At the date u  made this comment ADX was about 32 and was declining that mean it became less active..But MACD indicate positive cross over -bullish cross over.

So th price was 2 and it came 1.5 a months time..Now MACD positive ADX is about 23 which came 18 few weeks before. Can you say possibility of uptrend?? So buying signal. Am I right??

I would pbly say yes. It could go up. but I would  wait and see for few more weeks....

Already set for it's next run. Very Happy

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