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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Inside of LMF

Inside of LMF

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1Inside of LMF Empty Inside of LMF Sun Aug 18, 2013 6:36 pm

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Since Fonterra-Anchor powder got knocked off in SL, there is a high probability LMF to become as mkt leader along with lakspray..As it made very healthy return this year around 9 rupees which is nearly 100% increase from last year. There is a possibility it could generate healthy return next year. Despite of return its asset based is enhanced by new foreign buyers. As DIST hold over 4 mn JKH, DIST follow JKH rally. As Dist price goes up, LMF NAVP would come nearly 250, if DIST share price can fly above 240.

This could be one of fundamental illiquid gem for value investors- not traders...



2Inside of LMF Empty Re: Inside of LMF Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:26 am

stocks hunter


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
LMF will not get anything from the fonterra issue. All imported milk powder has this issue(WAY powder or DCD). LMF products are imported from AUS.

Future volume may come down drastically. U can ask what has happen to the sales of ANCHOR products from their agents during past couple of weeks.

Now u can't play with sri Lankan consumers as well. This is the high time to consume liquid milk produce from our own milch cows.

By the way LMF may benefitted from AMBEWELLA liquid milk sales. Because they owned sri lanka's best two farms(Ambewella farm + New Zealand farm - Ambewella) by now which produces high quality liquid milk and other milk products.

3Inside of LMF Empty Re: Inside of LMF Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:41 am

hettdas

hettdas
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@stocks hunter wrote:LMF will not get anything from the fonterra  issue. All imported milk powder has this issue(WAY powder or DCD). LMF products are imported from AUS.

Future volume may come down drastically. U can ask what has happen to the sales of ANCHOR products from their agents during past couple of weeks.

Now u can't play with sri Lankan consumers as well. This is the high time to consume liquid milk produce from our own milch cows.

By the way LMF may benefitted from AMBEWELLA liquid milk sales. Because they owned sri lanka's best two farms(Ambewella farm + New Zealand farm - Ambewella) by now which produces high quality liquid milk and other milk products.
Yes. All Imported milk powder products will effect to this issue. So local milk producers get the benifit.

4Inside of LMF Empty Re: Inside of LMF Mon Aug 19, 2013 9:47 am

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Does court prevented all NZ milk powders? Nooo

Only foterra according court statement...

5Inside of LMF Empty Re: Inside of LMF Mon Aug 19, 2013 10:00 am

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Dont think so. people will jump into liquid milk so fast.due to lack of distribution channels people will go for Australian milk powders.
Its to do with peoples habbits,not so easy to change overnight.
i have to agree with LMF statement.

6Inside of LMF Empty Re: Inside of LMF Mon Aug 19, 2013 10:15 am

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
http://sinhala.lankanewsweb.com/exclusive/9580-2013-08-18-12-35-33

I don't know how true this story
This is not authentic information
you better read & judge on your own

7Inside of LMF Empty Re: Inside of LMF Mon Aug 19, 2013 10:33 am

hettdas

hettdas
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Jana1 wrote:Does court prevented all NZ milk powders? Nooo

Only foterra according court statement...
I heard Australian Milk also had DCD. Maliban also imported from Australia.

Please read below link

http://www.srilankamirror.lk/news/9271-dcd-in-anchor-maliban-and-diamond

8Inside of LMF Empty Re: Inside of LMF Mon Aug 19, 2013 10:37 am

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@hettdas wrote:
@Jana1 wrote:Does court prevented all NZ milk powders? Nooo

Only foterra according court statement...
I heard Australian Milk also had DCD. Maliban also imported from Australia.

Please read below link

http://www.srilankamirror.lk/news/9271-dcd-in-anchor-maliban-and-diamond
Court band only for two weeks. Just fonterra, not all NZ products...

http://za.news.yahoo.com/sri-lankan-court-bars-sale-fonterra-milk-products-101437484.html

9Inside of LMF Empty Re: Inside of LMF Mon Aug 19, 2013 12:33 pm

sureshot

sureshot
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
better drink plain tea Very Happy 

10Inside of LMF Empty Re: Inside of LMF Mon Aug 19, 2013 2:20 pm

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
It is the tiny tots who are most affected in this fight for local vs imported business

11Inside of LMF Empty Re: Inside of LMF Mon Aug 19, 2013 3:49 pm

Dileepa


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
If there is a company to take advantage of the current situation,
I think it is NEST. Not LMF

12Inside of LMF Empty Re: Inside of LMF Tue Aug 20, 2013 12:15 pm

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Good post Jana,
The only reason why im not investing in this group is non other than HJ's age. It may sound crazy but i fear without him this group will be struggling.
Ok for tradings.

13Inside of LMF Empty Re: Inside of LMF Tue Aug 20, 2013 2:24 pm

Rocky

Rocky
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Import and Distribute is a trading business.
No value addition... No premium price.

Anyway, MilkPowder is a commodity now. Added to that CAA is an issue!

14Inside of LMF Empty Re: Inside of LMF Tue Aug 20, 2013 3:13 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
However way you look at it, their is case to be made for LMF.

Even if we forget the DIST stake of Rs 190 per share (which is hard to do) and the Milk Powder business (LAKSPRAY), their Fresh Milk (Ambewela & Pattipola) and other ancialliary businessess made approx Rs 50 Mill for the June Quarter. This may go up in future quarters due to Milk powder issues. even if it remains constant, this means Rs 200 Mill profit from Fresh Milk or Rs 5 per share EPS (total EPS with DIST Div & Milk Powder is extrapolated from 1st Q to approx Rs 12).
So if we segregate the core Fresh Milk Dairy & Agriculture assets that amount to approx Rs 50 per share, ROE from total Milk Business is over 20 % and from fresh milk business is 10 %. you get this ROE  at a Price to Book ratio of 2.4 times at LMF Price Rs 120. (The NAV including DIST stake will soon be approx Rs 250).

In comparison, NEST made approx Rs 31 EPS for 1st six months 2013. even if they make Rs 70 EPS for 2013, the NAV without dilution of a dividend will be Rs 90 as at end dec 2013. so its trading at over 35 times end dec 2013 Earnings and over 28 times end dec 2013 Price to Book ratio.

Is the Jury in or out on LMF ?

15Inside of LMF Empty Re: Inside of LMF Tue Aug 20, 2013 3:40 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Maybe good advise to Harry J !

One day the Buddha was sitting in the wood with thirty or forty monks. They had an excellent lunch and they were enjoying the company of each other. There was a farmer passing by and the farmer was very unhappy. He asked the Buddha and the monks whether they had seen his cows passing by. The Buddha said they had not seen any cows passing by.

The farmer said, "Monks, I'm so unhappy. I have twelve cows and I don't know why they all ran away. I have also a few acres of a sesame seed plantation and the insects have eaten up everything. I suffer so much I think I am going to kill myself.

The Buddha said, "My friend, we have not seen any cows passing by here. You might like to look for them in the other direction."

So the farmer thanked him and ran away, and the Buddha turned to his monks and said, "My dear friends, you are the happiest people in the world. You don't have any cows to lose. If you have too many cows to take care of, you will be very busy.

"That is why, in order to be happy, you have to learn the art of cow releasing. You release the cows one by one. In the beginning you thought that those cows were essential to your happiness, and you tried to get more and more cows. But now you realize that cows are not really conditions for your happiness; they constitute an obstacle for your happiness. That is why you are determined to release your cows."

Source - Sageworld

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