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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Power sector has recovered and getting attractive.

Power sector has recovered and getting attractive.

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
About a year back, I commented/published in this forum why we should not look at power generating and rubber sectors for investing.  Power was overlooked because of the prevailed drought and rubber was due to declining prices. On these two sectors, there’s no clear indication of appreciating of the rubber prices yet though it seem to be stable. On the other hand, power generating sector is getting attractive.


Why?


Sri Lanka is having four main rain seasons.

1.       First Inter monsoon Season - March - April

2.       Southwest monsoon season - May - September

3.       Second Inter monsoon season - October - November

4.       Northeast Monsoon season - December – February



We had a good north east monsoon season towards end of last year and in January this year, a very productive first inter monsoon season and now we are into a good southwest monsoon season. So we are experiencing three consecutive rainy seasons after several years. This will definitely benefit hydro power generation in next quarter as well. If the pattern continued into a full cycle as predicted, we may see record earnings and very attractive dividend payouts in 2013/2014.

Follow the full analysis in research section :

http://research.srilankaequity.com/t808-an-analysis-of-power-generating-sector-of-cse

PAP, HPWR and VPEL are into attractive earnings.

HPWR didn't get much earnings from thermal sector in the last quarter. They did well only with hydro power segment. But in the current quarter they will have earnings from both sectors as Norochcholei is going for a 40 day maintenance from tomorrow onwards. HPWR thermal plant is the cheapest thermal plant in the country.

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Hydro power sector is special.

It is one of rarest sectors where we can calculate income months before they release the reports. Revenue is proportionate to precipitation.

If you have good idea about the rainfall prevailed during last seasons you can guess the bottom line.

APART from that we have to consider any additions done to generator capacity. Currently, VLL and HPFL has near in completion new stations.

Ii will be a plus point if you know the locations of the hydropower stations in medium-long term buying.

I will submit a related study in a day or two.

For any one who need rainfall data, you can get them from Met. dept., Bauddhaloka Mw. Colo. 7.

You can select stations by studying their map.
For monthly rainfall they charge Rs. 50/- per year for each station.

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