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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Technical analysis is the last thing.

Technical analysis is the last thing.

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1Technical analysis is the last thing. Empty Technical analysis is the last thing. Fri Aug 23, 2013 7:07 am

wellappili


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
What I learned is technical analysis is the last thing you need to rely on CSE.

Sentiment analysis >Fundemental analysis > Technical Analysis


It's all about the sentiment in CSE,Few fundamental shares may be able to beat the market.So fundamental comes second.And technical analysis is the last thing which is useless.Whatever accuracy technical analysis shows it will never beat the market sentiment and behave accordingly.




dudi


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Well,you have brought up a very good point.so, from a sentiment analysis point of view,what is the best share to look at?

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
There is a continuous debate over this subject. I might add socio-economic (both external and internal) analysis too to this debate. Each analysis has its pross & cons. My advice is to use all of them if one is to succed in the market. study study study 

4Technical analysis is the last thing. Empty Re: Technical analysis is the last thing. Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:24 am

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think it is very difficult to do any scientific analysis in this market

Because irrational behavior of market participant

We had same problem in food commodity marker when Cooperative Wholesale Establishment(CWE) had been main player in food commodity market.Because of irrational behavior of CWE there was no place for demand and supply.Corruption of CWE management also was one reason for irrational behavior of food market

There was unnecessary intervention by govt and manipulate stock market after 2009.rational behavior replaced by irrational behavior.

I think now not much govt intervention like after 2009.
But Some people try to get govt intervention again and obtained money from public funds to manipulate the market.Present downward trend is may be due to manipulation for that purpose

It will take some time to replace present irrational behavior
Then we can use scientific analysis


5Technical analysis is the last thing. Empty Re: Technical analysis is the last thing. Fri Aug 23, 2013 11:31 am

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
U need all kinds of analysis to survive in this market.. Besides a solid investment rely on correct timing as well as buying fundamentally strong, strong business models that can continue their business for decades at least.
Tech analysis only tell u the timing and trends, fundamentally u need to asses whether the company u buy shares of can show good incomes in coming qtrs and years..

We all know what are the basic needs, hence companies that provide those basic needs have a much more future than others imo.. Power, clothing, food, construction are few industries among those that can have a future..

Whatever the saga over milk these days, do u think milk companies from NZ will close down? NO.. these will only keep the momentum going on for couple of months.. So if ur prudent enuf, let these fall and try to buy on a good news weeks or months later..

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
I disagree because;
Technical analysis is an illustration of market sentiments.

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Yes I do agree Hunter, TA depicts the market sentiments where u can expect history, trends, behaviors repeated over and over Wink

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@hunter wrote:I disagree because;
Technical analysis is an illustration of market sentiments.
Yes. Easy way to make 1 million if you invested 2 million a year ago. Do technical buy and sell.. Most of da days you would walk to home..

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Moderator
Most recent example of how TA can help you is the case of JKH.
There were strong signs of a price drop well in advance.

10Technical analysis is the last thing. Empty Re: Technical analysis is the last thing. Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:47 pm

wellappili


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Sentiment is the key.Technical useless.

http://www.babypips.com/school/the-big-three.html

Right now it's a on leg stool.

11Technical analysis is the last thing. Empty Re: Technical analysis is the last thing. Thu Sep 05, 2013 10:22 pm

Roboticfx

Roboticfx
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Disagree with wellapili and agree with small.

Fundamental analysis supports to choose strong counters which there will be no risk of holding them in long term.

TA is used to study the movement of counter and identify the correct time to sell, buy and hold. However, TA is totally statistical and it needs to compare its results with practical behavior before make decisions.

As small said, TA depicts the history, but the problem is there was no pure natural movement in the recent history of market. Therefore, TA will not be able to produce much accurate information which to be used for investing long term.

12Technical analysis is the last thing. Empty Re: Technical analysis is the last thing. Thu Sep 05, 2013 11:19 pm

malanp


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

In CSE Mass investor sentiments are not reflected in charts because they are not active, they are just watching while few people are driving the market up and down.

The foundation for technical analysis, ie active mass investor involvements, is not there.Charts shows few HN individuals emotions, manipulations, insider trading, so basically can not count as general investor bahavior,

so as far as CSE is concerned technical analysis is not useful. what is happening is completely different of what you expect.

13Technical analysis is the last thing. Empty Re: Technical analysis is the last thing. Thu Sep 05, 2013 11:26 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@D.G.Dayaratne wrote:I think it is very difficult to do any scientific analysis in this market

Because irrational behavior of market participant

But Some people try to get govt intervention again and obtained money from public funds to manipulate the market.Present downward trend is may be due to manipulation for that purpose

It will take some time to replace present irrational behavior

Please dont misunderstand me for saying that irrational behaviour of market participants in present is all markets everywhere. if you think about it, it has to be. if everybody was rational, then no market, anywhere. yes, our market is inefficient (due to illiquidity) like all other emerging & frontier markets whereas western markets are more efficient i.e. market information is better reflected in prices.

earlier you said, that present downward trend is due to government manipulation to prevent foreign stock selling / outflow to protect Rupee depreciation.

Now it seems,you are saying, downward trend is due to someone manipulating market downward to get money from public funds (EPF/ETF) to manipulate market.

By public funds, i presume you mean EPF/ETF. Just for your information, the EPF fund size is over Rs 1 Trillion (usd 7.5 Billion). only 7 % is invested in the stock market (Rs 70 Billion). out of that Rs 70 Billion, less than 1 % is in jilmart stocks and irregular market activities. rest 99 % is in blue chip stocks. (In other countries 50-60 % of Pension Fund in Equities for Inflation protection in future).
Balance 93 % or Rs 930 Billion is in T'Bills & T'Bonds. The Treasury takes this money to finance losses & deficits in CEB, CPC, Sri-lankan airlines, Mihin etc etc.

Where would you rather have the future generations money invested ? JKH / Comm Bank  or Mihin ?

In reality, The state funds are under-invested in the equity market. They can afford to buy over the entire JKH with 10 % of their funds ! The pension funds money is used to finance wastage, corruption & mismanagement at other SOE'S via Treasury Bills & Bonds.

14Technical analysis is the last thing. Empty Re: Technical analysis is the last thing. Fri Sep 06, 2013 6:52 am

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Earlier i said govt manipulation is due to some one manipulating market to get money from public funds

Noe i say govt manipulation is to prevent fortnight stock selling.

Pl see the dates of my postings

These are my opinion which i am entitled and not facts

There is no economic reason to comedown market at this rate under normal circumstances according to published Statistics
Pl give your explanation for present downward trend Specially in this month


15Technical analysis is the last thing. Empty Re: Technical analysis is the last thing. Fri Sep 06, 2013 7:03 am

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
again i say private sector irrational behavior or manipulation is not a big problem you can see it any market Regulators can control if if there is any adverse effect

Because private sector always work with profit motive although behave irrationally due to miscalculation
But public sector is not on profit motive. Political and other personal objectives

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