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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » Second phase of the JKH trap . Beware ...!

Second phase of the JKH trap . Beware ...!

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Its obvious now that the price appreciation movement of JKH share was a manipulation and a well set trap to squeeze the market liquidity. This time the script of the manipulation 'drama' is bit different from the known history where they got support from two high cap illiquidities ( NEST , CTC ) to under cover their main objective of creating a rally or an upsurge in the market. They nicely timed it for the AUGUST month expecting a parallel Bank rally where indices could reach to ASI 7500 level as preached by many unexperienced TA s.
JKH made several news articals with regard to Resorts , Casinos , expansions plans and was able to jack-up the price to high as Rs 300/- driving the ASI index almost single handedly. Fortunately for the poor market , unfortunate for them , there wasn't a blind crowd of retailers to follow the unusual tune played nor a sudden turnaround in the market condition, creating a positive rally towards 7000 level. Since there wasn't the expected crowd follow Foreign Investors who realised the trap they entered started to sell the counter grabbing what ever a slice of profit making a dip to the price level. A foreign party who got the news beforehand  the others was so keen to sell at low prices yesterday and the day before,  made the JKH management to take a quick decision to announce the Rights and so called Warrents.
Keeping aside all the scenes of this drama beside for a further discussion,  let me caution the forum members about a dirty play that could be expect in coming weeks when the Rights and Warrents are listed for trading.  
This has happened few years ago , when there was a Right Issue went on for "JHL" ,  in good old days.  It was the day the Rights of JHL were listed for trading in the board there was a huge demand of millions of rights in the buying side. (price was below 15/- if I recall correctly).  Suddenly started a huge sell out JHL.R0000 counter,  dumping huge parcels of rights to the buying book , a 30 - 40 millions of shares in a very quick session. Prices came low as Rs 6/= to Rs 7/= in no time,  but nobody knew who was the seller . Traders who bought a right for Rs 10/- in early in the morning thinking its a fare price and was expecting to sell the same for Rs 12/- in the evening (or within a couple of days) were so shocked to see the selling spree went through and were helpless. At the end of the day we found out the seller was no one else but the COMPANY it self. Dumping the rights of company's stake to poor retailers company made some good money which wasn't a practice for known history of the CSE.

Spending a lot of valuable time I'm making light on this old story , to make aware any new members/traders in this forum to avoid any rash investment decisions as I sense the same bad smell this time around.

History can be repeated with a different share CODE this time.

I saw some senior members making a few comments on buying JKH rights/warrents at a lesser price as an long term investment.

Be cautious and make only wise investment decisions if you need to survive in this hostile market conditions.



Last edited by Prince on Wed Aug 28, 2013 5:09 pm; edited 2 times in total

Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Who is selling or passing on the Casino license?

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ Prince.

Good one mate,

I remember the history...Those days as well same sort of panic and so seeling calls despite the booming mkt ahead..

niru


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
As you may know the recent Amba Research report published in CSE site said

1.Conservative scenario:
We applied a forward P/E of 16.3x to our FY14E diluted EPS estimate of LKR14.5 to arrive at a fair value of LKR236 per share.

2. Optimistic scenario:
Applied to our forecast of FY14E diluted EPS, this leads to a share price level of LKR292 per share.

(page 17)

Now we can guess the research guys recommendations and forecast?

samcader


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Let us hope that the JKH warrant would not end up similiar to the Greg warrant

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
like they sold KHL rights

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
JKH after 3 years trading only at Rs 195! hmm ... that it a little far fetched unless something horribly goes wrong.


Bit
@samcader wrote:Let  us hope  that the  JKH  warrant  would  not  end  up  similiar  to  the  Greg  warrant

hantleybabapulle


Stock Trader
SECOND STAGE OF THE JKH TRAP.  
I appreciate greatly the paper written by PRINCE it was very enlightening.  Hope many more of us can keep the investor informed of all these underhand work done by such big conglomerates. I hope Mr Vignarajah will take some type of action in this regard.

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ Prince - very hardcore conspiracy theory !
when share price goes up, we say its manipulated. when it comes down we say its manipulated. share prices go up and down all over the world and have done so for centuries. nothing new. Apple share reached usd 700 and dropped to usd 375 and now around usd 500 all within one year. is it manipulated ? JKH since they listed in 1987 has traded at p/e over 17-22 (during civil war and worse macro economic outlook times). whats so unusual now ? whats wrong in JKH selling its KHL rights in the market to dilute its Group holdings ? remember, JKH is not controlled by one shareholder. over 50 % is foreign institution held. The Captains act as market makers and trade in a % of their holdings. nothing illegal in that. if we get trapped in the wrong side of the trade, then we have only ourselves to blame due to fear & greed.  otherwise just bcos JKH is going up i.e. manipulated up, why should the "poor market" become greedy and buy other shares & push up the market index to 7000 - 7500 ? the poor market had the option to sell no ?
For example, if the market was not greedy & sold JKH on the way up, then it was not a trap and if their were enough sellers, the JKH price may not have gone to such a high level in the first place.
sometimes better to see things as they are and accept the reality instead of finding scapegoats & coming up with conspiracy theories, in hindsight, to justify irrational behaviour in the marketplace, due to inefficiency of the market & greed.

Prince

Prince
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Sure. No offense. As a small retail investor I shared my experiences. That's all. If I got stuck my small capital into a 50% foreign owned company ( steered by a captain) then I have to wait quite a long time for me to make any other investment or grab a good opportunity.

I really believe "MARKET IS ALWAYS CORRECT" . There is no two words of it.

REEF was right when it was under Dammika Perera.
GREG was right when it was with LionHeart.
JKH is always right with 50% foreign hold.

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
JKH is a multinational "BahuJathika samaagama" . They are going to build and own the best place in out capital. (Sahodarayaas have no idea about this )

If you have a habit to find a silver lining in every dark cloud,
then you can say ,
the right issue of this foreign owned company would help to curtail the diminishing value of our Rupee against Dollar.
(I believe they announced it after consulting all the major holders)

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
(I believe they announced it after consulting all the major holders)[/quote]
Am also in this opinion, i feel the last thing they wanted is the right issue is not subscribed in full.

wellappili


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Chinwi wrote:JKH is a multinational "BahuJathika samaagama" . They are going to build and own the best place in out capital. (Sahodarayaas have no idea about this )

If you have a  habit to find a silver lining in every dark cloud,
then  you can say ,
the right issue of this foreign owned company would help to curtail the diminishing value of our Rupee against Dollar.
(I believe they announced it after consulting all the major holders)
Definitely,what will happen if the Malaysian guys didn't like it.

econ

econ
Global Moderator
anyway I think this is good for market because no more JKH boom in near future.

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