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FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » FINANCIAL CHRONICLE™ » LKR fall is imminent

LKR fall is imminent

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1LKR fall is imminent Empty LKR fall is imminent Thu Aug 29, 2013 11:31 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
LKR fall is imminent
Many would disagree, but I would put my thoughts

All EM currencies are on a freefall
Reversing carry trade with US tapering plan to be blamed
No decoupling, it's myth. We live in an integrated world

We have BOP deficit, definitely FII flow is important
We will not see same flow
Investors would see currency risk is looming
CBSL has no reserves to burn. Burning reserves in defense of falling currency is equally worthless
Certainly, market outlook is not going be very good for specisifically in short term




2LKR fall is imminent Empty Re: LKR fall is imminent Fri Aug 30, 2013 6:14 am

Humble


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@salt wrote:LKR fall is imminent
Many would disagree, but I would put my thoughts

All EM currencies are on a freefall
Reversing carry trade with US tapering plan to be blamed
No decoupling, it's myth. We live in an integrated world

We have BOP deficit, definitely FII flow is important
We will not see same flow
Investors would see currency risk is looming
CBSL has no reserves to burn. Burning reserves in defense of falling currency is equally worthless
Certainly, market outlook is not going be very good for specisifically in short term




If the Ruppee falls, foreign outflow will increase bringing the market down on a temporary basis

3LKR fall is imminent Empty Re: LKR fall is imminent Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:15 pm

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Wht happen to that $1 billion bond issue. Is it still on card?

4LKR fall is imminent Empty Re: LKR fall is imminent Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:16 am

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yes, but we have matching outflows
Tapering is a huge risk to EM
NO exception

5LKR fall is imminent Empty Re: LKR fall is imminent Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:27 pm

wave trader


Stock Trader
Emerging markets had been big beneficiaries of the Fed’s low interest rate policies since the financial crisis, as yield-hungry investors sought better opportunities than the zero percent US environment. So in May, when Bernanke said that the Fed might taper its bond purchases, it also meant that many of those emerging market investors would yank their funds and return to the US.

Indeed, many have had enough of the international roller coaster. Since the beginning of June, retail investors in the US have withdrawn $18.1 billion dollars from emerging market bond funds, about one-third of the amount they had put in since the era of low interest rates began with the financial crisis. Adding to the pain, institutional investors in the US have pulled about 10 percent of their pre-crisis investments. The anxiety is seeping into all global markets. Last week, stock exchange-traded funds and global equity funds saw their first net outflows in eight weeks and the largest in five years.
Chances are, the nerves will persist until the Fed pulls the taper trigger, perhaps as early as the mid-September meeting.

6LKR fall is imminent Empty Re: LKR fall is imminent Mon Sep 02, 2013 6:02 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@wave trader wrote:Emerging markets had been big beneficiaries of the Fed’s low interest rate policies since the financial crisis, as yield-hungry investors sought better opportunities than the zero percent US environment. So in May, when Bernanke said that the Fed might taper its bond purchases, it also meant that many of those emerging market investors would yank their funds and return to the US.

Indeed, many have had enough of the international roller coaster. Since the beginning of June, retail investors in the US have withdrawn $18.1 billion dollars from emerging market bond funds, about one-third of the amount they had put in since the era of low interest rates began with the financial crisis. Adding to the pain, institutional investors in the US have pulled about 10 percent of their pre-crisis investments. The anxiety is seeping into all global markets. Last week, stock exchange-traded funds and global equity funds saw their first net outflows in eight weeks and the largest in five years.
Chances are, the nerves will persist until the Fed pulls the taper trigger, perhaps as early as the mid-September meeting.
@Wave Trader
In future please provide the source.

To read the whole article.
http://www.jillonmoney.com/week-ahead-will-emerging-markets-tank-us-investors/

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

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